Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There's a little bit of chatter from SPC about the sunrise surprise potential tomorrow. it was either last summer or the summer before... but we had dark based, giant jungle drops low LCL morning as TCU whip by in 72+ DPs in the 8am range out here in metro west. they matured more and went on to produce an E1 or naut tor closer to the coast.... is that the type of set/scenario in mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: it was either last summer or the summer before... but we had dark based, giant jungle drops low LCL morning as TCU whip by in 72+ DPs in the 8am range out here in metro west. they matured more and went on to produce an E1 or naut tor closer to the coast.... is that the type of set/scenario in mind? Yeah, I mean you have a moist air mass in place already, but along the warm front should be 70s dewpoints. You'll have NE winds along the south coast, so plenty of helicity. Even a little bit of instability will go a long way to providing potential for a quick spin up. A la Revere or the several Brooklyn tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, I mean you have a moist air mass in place already, but along the warm front should be 70s dewpoints. You'll have NE winds along the south coast, so plenty of helicity. Even a little bit of instability will go a long way to providing potential for a quick spin up. A la Revere or the several Brooklyn tornadoes. I don't think the threat makes it into SNE but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Just now, CT Rain said: I don't think the threat makes it into SNE but it's close. Definitely looks better for LI, but you know there will be some hedging to the N just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Ct drought buster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, I mean you have a moist air mass in place already, but along the warm front should be 70s dewpoints. You'll have NE winds along the south coast, so plenty of helicity. Even a little bit of instability will go a long way to providing potential for a quick spin up. A la Revere or the several Brooklyn tornadoes. right - it does appear similar in that regard. ...i think if some how the wfront is more diffused and/or NW of thinking would also contribute to that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Starting to wonder if Sunday night storms end up giving more rain to areas north of the coast than tomorrow does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 12Z euro has a sharp cutoff just north of the southern CT coast.BDL had .3 while New London has 3 inches... Jackpots LI with 4-5 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 An 8/10/12 redux would be fun... some similarities, though the progs for tomorrow are for somewhat of a dual pronged low with a better coastal component... if the MCV forms it would likely be a bit east of that event IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Was that the landphoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 12Z euro has a sharp cutoff just north of the southern CT coast.BDL had .3 while New London has 3 inches... Jackpots LI with 4-5 inches of rain It had 4.2 HFD/ BDL yesterday to now well under .5 one more south shift and it's just scattered showers. Pattern persistence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: it was either last summer or the summer before... but we had dark based, giant jungle drops low LCL morning as TCU whip by in 72+ DPs in the 8am range out here in metro west. they matured more and went on to produce an E1 or naut tor closer to the coast.... is that the type of set/scenario in mind? You are referring to the Revere tornado? Because that was where my mind immediately went with this setup. I glimpsed that thing from my office window on State Street ever so briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 12Z euro has a sharp cutoff just north of the southern CT coast.BDL had .3 while New London has 3 inches... Jackpots LI with 4-5 inches of rain It had 4.2 HFD/ BDL yesterday to now well under .5 one more south shift and it's just scattered showers. Pattern persistence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It had 4.2 HFD/ BDL yesterday to now well under .5 one more south shift and it's just scattered showers. Pattern persistence dude, are you really doing this on purpose, or are you actually having trouble comprehending this - there is no pattern persistence about this ordeal for tomorrow - that's the whole f point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It had 4.2 HFD/ BDL yesterday to now well under .5 one more south shift and it's just scattered showers. Pattern persistence Congrats on your flash flood watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Congrats on your flash flood watch. Lol. Everything goes way south and they issue that. Embarrassing when tomorrow everyone's like .. Where's the rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. Everything goes way south and they issue that. Embarrassing when tomorrow everyone's like .. Where's the rain ? You know better than that. It's issued on potential. Where it rains, it may rain a lot. Plus with the damaging drought we've been hearing so much about, the dry, hard pan ground won't absorb any water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 i'm actually kind of amazed at the great effort the atmosphere is implementing to pull of banality here in SNE... yeah, we've gotten some heat lately, and the convection was okay ... but, here... it's 90 F + everywhere and we're not getting anything from tomorrow N of the S.C.... - if that pulls off, that's pretty awesome... from 50,000 feet that seems this can't break without more fan fare but... heh. that's really Kevin's pattern - has nothing to do with the weather, but the weather avoiding SNE. fascinating - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: You know better than that. It's issued on potential. Where it rains, it may rain a lot. Plus with the damaging drought we've been hearing so much about, the dry, hard pan ground won't absorb any water. No ... he doesn't (apparently) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: i'm actually kind of amazed at the great effort the atmosphere is implementing to pull of banality here in SNE... yeah, we've gotten some heat lately, and the convection was okay ... but, here... it's 90 F + everywhere and we're not getting anything from tomorrow N of the S.C.... - that's pretty awesome... form 50,000 feet that seems it can't break without more fan fare but... heh. that's really Kevin's pattern - has nothing to do with the weather, but the weather avoiding SNE. fascinating - haha You know better than that. Pattern persistence is the way to forecast each of these events.. Which is s south trend the last 36 hours. It's happened every freaking time we've seen events like this modeled the last 4 months . Something is causing this. Who knows what.. But it sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 See if you can guess what season, and type of event, best serves as an analog for SNE's type of butt-bangin' set up this is for tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You know better than that. Pattern persistence is the way to forecast each of these events.. Which is s south trend the last 36 hours. It's happened every freaking time we've seen events like this modeled the last 4 months . Something is causing this. Who knows what.. But it sucks RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: You know better than that. Pattern persistence is the way to forecast each of these events.. Which is s south trend the last 36 hours. It's happened every freaking time we've seen events like this modeled the last 4 months . Something is causing this. Who knows what.. But it sucks You also don't know how NWP works. There's the potential for heavy rain tomorrow - especially in S CT. Flash Flood Watch is a good call IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wx 12s13 seconds ago Very real poss that the mid Atlantic convection will congeal into an MCS and slide E tonight, robbing SNE moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 I just looked at models. I'm calling bust for sig rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: You also don't know how NWP works. There's the potential for heavy rain tomorrow - especially in S CT. Flash Flood Watch is a good call IMO. New Nam crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: New Nam crush job crushes all of CT. 4K NAM also further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Things usually start north shift south then bump north last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 NEW RPM is way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 How is tomorrow night looking? Should the Pawsox game be in the clear by then ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.