Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Really good consensus for a bit soaking here. Could it trend south with some type of convective issues... of course. But DIT saying sprinkles and drizzle is ridiculous at this point. the 4K nam is a bit of a concern as it is well south-even LI gets the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 RGEM will be interesting as the 6z was ridiculously far south with the best stuff in S NJ. Want to see it move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 not that anyone asked ...there's a couple things i don't like about this... the main one is the modeling of all these max QPF nodes ...they are not very consistently placed around the regions of the lower OV up through our area across successive model runs. that probably hearkens to the convective processes 'interfering' (not the same as convective feedback) with the strata processes. the models are probably having difficulty simultaneously handling those different physical processes - mainly because the convective side of that is very susceptible to random permutations situate out in time (goes without saying really...) anyway, i don't doubt it will rain ... and probably hard, but i don't have a lot of faith that the QPF maxes are well handled here. one run it's Boston proper, next run it's Orange Mass, now it's SW CT ... that's the NAM, but I don't think the other models are handling things with much more consistency. the other aspect is the unanimously agreed upon 'narrow' corridor of the event. that doesn't allow for a lot of wiggle room/error .. the former concern can be related, too. but a shift one way or the other by 50 naut. miles may mean an inch and half of bustage there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: RGEM will be interesting as the 6z was ridiculously far south with the best stuff in S NJ. Want to see it move north. FWIW - the RPM has a similar setup with a big MCS moving through MD/DE/S NJ and effectively shutting off the good stuff up this way. Still a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: FWIW - the RPM has a similar setup with a big MCS moving through MD/DE/S NJ and effectively shutting off the good stuff up this way. Still a possibility. that would fit the seasonal trend of that area jackpotting. The 4K NAM is not far from that solution either with the best stuff south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: the 4K nam is a bit of a concern as it is well south-even LI gets the shaft. Isn't LI in 1-2" of rain there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 10 hours ago, CT Rain said: GFS now on board. NAM/GFS actually have a tornado threat for NJ and Long Island. SREF bullish. NCAR ensemble hammering some serious updrafts just south of LI too. This is the 48 hour cumulative product, but all that south of SNE happens on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 19 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Really good consensus for a bit soaking here. Could it trend south with some type of convective issues... of course. But DIT saying sprinkles and drizzle is ridiculous at this point. With warm cloud depths pushing 13,000 feet, I don't think sprinkles and drizzle is the most accurate description. Whatever showers/storms form should be fairly efficient rainfall producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: With warm cloud depths pushing 13,000 feet, I don't think sprinkles and drizzle is the most accurate description. Whatever showers/storms form should be fairly efficient rainfall producers. Yeah the ingredients are here. Oh how we pray for +RA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: With warm cloud depths pushing 13,000 feet, I don't think sprinkles and drizzle is the most accurate description. Whatever showers/storms form should be fairly efficient rainfall producers. That isn't what I said. I have been worried we'd see the seasonal trend and pattern persistence of things shifting south . Convection always robs moisture transport and I think the hi res is picking up on that. I think there will be some rain. But these tv forecasts of widespread soakings and 1-3" seem a little gung ho IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That isn't what I said. I have been worried we'd see the seasonal trend and pattern persistence of things shifting south . Convection always robs moisture transport and I think the hi res is picking up on that. I think there will be some rain. But these tv forecasts of widespread soakings and 1-3" seem a little gung ho IMO That's actually not true at all, but I understand what you're trying to say. Convection increases moisture transport (due to development of potential vorticity) but the key is where it transports the moisture to. Convection develops a cyclonic circulation of moisture transport around it, so if the convection is a line that is SW to NE, the moisture transport tends to get shunted to the E. If convection is more N/S or even an MCS, moisture will be transported N. If we get an MCS set up S of SNE, there is a chance that we actually form a warm advection wing of convection (think smaller scale low pressure, cold front, warm front scenario) just north of the track. So even the bulk of the precip misses S, you could still see an E/W line of elevated storms over CT somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 53 minutes ago, tamarack said: GFS has WVL/RUM/AUG getting 0.10-0.15" Fri. Would love to see some northward movement, but not expecting it. Last day with 1"+ precip at my place was in March. Last MONTH with 1"+ here was May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That isn't what I said. I have been worried we'd see the seasonal trend and pattern persistence of things shifting south . Convection always robs moisture transport and I think the hi res is picking up on that. I think there will be some rain. But these tv forecasts of widespread soakings and 1-3" seem a little gung ho IMO Convection doesn't *always* rob moisture transport. You have plenty of moisture in the area with good PWATS. This isn't a case where it's February and we watch the SE US convection cut-off the moisture stream and we have winter-time 0.1" PWATS in place. This scenario will come down to the frontal boundary position. It's going to be wet on that axis regardless of convection south of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 20 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: With warm cloud depths pushing 13,000 feet, I don't think sprinkles and drizzle is the most accurate description. Whatever showers/storms form should be fairly efficient rainfall producers. Is tomorrow a washout for GYX area? Trying to take the mother-in-law and other folks out in the boat on Sebago. Not sure if it's widespread T-storms, just showers, or other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: Is tomorrow a washout for GYX area? Trying to take the mother-in-law and other folks out in the boat on Sebago. Not sure if it's widespread T-storms, just showers, or other? More scattered in our area, definitely not looking like a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Just now, OceanStWx said: More scattered in our area, definitely not looking like a washout. any sun in the frcst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Convection doesn't *always* rob moisture transport. You have plenty of moisture in the area with good PWATS. This isn't a case where it's February and we watch the SE US convection cut-off the moisture stream and we have winter-time 0.1" PWATS in place. This scenario will come down to the frontal boundary position. It's going to be wet on that axis regardless of convection south of it. Chris did a pretty good explanation of it. It often depends on orientation...how many times have we seen big convection in the southeast actually bring the WAA precip further NORTH due to really pumping up heights ahead of it? If the convection is streaming that direction, then it can help...but if it's shooting more ENE then it can "rob" us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: any sun in the frcst? Should be some, but it could also be that thick/milky cirrus that we're so used to in winter now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 RGEM likes CT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM likes CT: Looks like the NAM. RGEM really screws MA-almost nothing there except far western MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Looks like the NAM. RGEM really screws MA-almost nothing there except far western MA That's close to an inch near Boston too. The northern side is going to have winners and losers...there will be heavy showers that fire up and whoever gets them will get a good dousing and those that miss will be left with much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 This is the RPM. Wouldn't this be a kick to the midsection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That's close to an inch near Boston too. The northern side is going to have winners and losers...there will be heavy showers that fire up and whoever gets them will get a good dousing and those that miss will be left with much less. that's the whole ball-game on this puppy for me, actually... convective processes et al are immensely complex when intermingled with synoptic physics and the "narrowness" doesn't have a lot of room to play - if the co-mingling of those forces bump it one way or the other some completely acceptable amount than FIT gets .10" and PVD 4.75" because of training... it's probably going to have a kind of 'all or nothing' about it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 12z gfs loves south of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 That's a big shift south on that POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Ugh. The drought will barely be dented here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 12z GFS has nearly 8" in the lower Hudson valley and SWCT. Concerning for a model like the GFS to print out that kind of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: 12z GFS has nearly 8" in the lower Hudson valley and SWCT. Concerning for a model like the GFS to print out that kind of qpf. almost 2 like 2 separate events-one Saturday night too? CMC shows this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 this may not be a testable phenomenon ... but, what if 8" of rain happened basin wide: would Kevin shut up about holocaustic droughts? ... i put my money on no - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 There's a little bit of chatter from SPC about the sunrise surprise potential tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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