CT Rain Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Friday could be interesting. Models really bullish on heavy rain (GFS the exception) with a really nice LLJ and anomalously high PWATs. I'd watch the warm front too on the South Coast or Long Island for a spinup too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Friday could be interesting. Models really bullish on heavy rain (GFS the exception) with a really nice LLJ and anomalously high PWATs. I'd watch the warm front too on the South Coast or Long Island for a spinup too? 314 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT BERKSHIRE COUNTY...AND RHODE ISLAND. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT... THERE IS A RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS A STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS S OF NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Will be really surprising if this breaks the trend. Every time we've seen a setup like this the last 3+ months it always shifts south and ends up south coast to NJ special with little north of that. That seems like it's a legit concern, I wouldn't be jumping all over this as a super soaker yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Sure hope Ryan is right with this forecast. But the Ukie being so dry and so much spread on GEFS makes it hard to think it's a regional soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2016 Author Share Posted July 27, 2016 Seems like a lot of wishcasting for damaging drought from Kevin. Also, "Sure hope Ryan is right with this forecast." What forecast? I didn't make any forecast lol. I did say some of the ingredients are there for heavy rain but we'll see. Lots still to figure out as there is a decent amount of spread but odds of good rain on Friday have definitely gone up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Seems like a lot of wishcasting for damaging drought from Kevin. Also, "Sure hope Ryan is right with this forecast." What forecast? I didn't make any forecast lol. I did say some of the ingredients are there for heavy rain but we'll see. Lots still to figure out as there is a decent amount of spread but odds of good rain on Friday have definitely gone up. Oh ok. Thanks for clarifying. I just have this fear that pattern persistence wins again like these have done all spring and summer. What looks good 48 hours out trends south or has convection to the south rob us. Maybe this one will be different. But I'm still skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 27, 2016 Author Share Posted July 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh ok. Thanks for clarifying. I just have this fear that pattern persistence wins again like these have done all spring and summer. What looks good 48 hours out trends south or has convection to the south rob us. Maybe this one will be different. But I'm still skeptical Well I don't recall any even that resembles this one... so I'm not sure which events like this have "missed". Even our convection this summer has behaved pretty well and within expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Just now, CT Rain said: Well I don't recall any even that resembles this one... so I'm not sure which events like this have "missed". Even our convection this summer has behaved pretty well and within expectations. Scooter always cautions us in these setups about Convection to south robbing moisture transport. I always keep that in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 What I would do for 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 40 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: What I would do for 0.5" That's what she said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 GFS now on board. NAM/GFS actually have a tornado threat for NJ and Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Euro already has begun the shift south..Took HFD from 4.2 inches to much less with heaviest south coast and NYC south Beware of Scooter's rule..Models struggle with convective processes in these setups and generally model the MCS rains too far north. With convection robbing big moisture transport. it will rain some..but I'd be cautious with those trying to sell big 1-3"inch + rain amounts over a large area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Looks really wet for some in SNE...good PWATS, frontal zone for convergence, I'd say widespread 0.5-1.5" with locally higher looks fine for now. Probably some spot 2+ amounts but localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 41 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Looks really wet for some in SNE...good PWATS, frontal zone for convergence, I'd say widespread 0.5-1.5" with locally higher looks fine for now. Probably some spot 2+ amounts but localized. Hope your forecast here is right. Imo..it's not a slam dunk everyone in SNE see over an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hope your forecast here is right. Imo..it's not a slam dunk everyone in SNE see over an inch He posted 0.5-1,5". I'm forecasting a general 1-1.5" S of the Pike less as you head north my wide viewing audience approves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: He posted 0.5-1,5". I'm forecasting a general 1-1.5" S of the Pike less as you head north my wide viewing audience approves Jim Cantore @JimCantore 21m21 minutes ago @SurfSkiWxMan Thinking the bulk of this event is aimed at Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro already has begun the shift south..Took HFD from 4.2 inches to much less with heaviest south coast and NYC south Beware of Scooter's rule..Models struggle with convective processes in these setups and generally model the MCS rains too far north. With convection robbing big moisture transport. it will rain some..but I'd be cautious with those trying to sell big 1-3"inch + rain amounts over a large area Euro still has 4" of rain around Danbury/Waterbury/Middletown. That's not exactly a huge jump south. The GEFS has a big swath of mean 2"+ amounts in N CT which is almost maxing out the M-Climate. These are big signals for huge rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 figuring Upton and perhaps Box hoists flash flood watches, perhaps after the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 The Narragansett blessing of the fleet 10 mile road race is Friday afternoon. Is this a morning deal or will this be a washout? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hope your forecast here is right. Imo..it's not a slam dunk everyone in SNE see over an inch That's why I put a range of 0.5-1.5" right now, lol. That's like when someone forecasts 6-14" and people think 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 25 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Euro still has 4" of rain around Danbury/Waterbury/Middletown. That's not exactly a huge jump south. The GEFS has a big swath of mean 2"+ amounts in N CT which is almost maxing out the M-Climate. These are big signals for huge rains. Yeah I think the signal is fairly impressive on most models for 36-48 hours. Granted DIT is in general dis-belief like NNE posters in recent winters lol. Always looking for a way for it not to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 I noticed 4km NAM shifted big rains south at 6z. 12km didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 Ryan is hoisting the SOS flag for LI. #sultanofspinners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I noticed 4km NAM shifted big rains south at 6z. 12km didn't Yeah. That and the 12km are quite south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ryan is hoisting the SOS flag for LI. #sultanofspinners Yup. Sunrise surprise for LI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 GFS has WVL/RUM/AUG getting 0.10-0.15" Fri. Would love to see some northward movement, but not expecting it. Last day with 1"+ precip at my place was in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 12z NAM is a SW CT special with 2-3 inches of rain while the 4K screws just about everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 6z and also 12z nam argue for an MCV developing in LIS I believe... Would have to think that would lead to a sharp cutoff N of the Pike. 6z GFS jumped way N, but I believe in error and 12z will correct S. h850 vort max stripe is an outlier at this point compared with nam/euro. I also think the dual precip maxes shown in the 6z nam could come to fruition, with the initial slug of moisture over SENY and NWCT followed by a second one over ECT, RI, and SEMA as the mesoscale complex takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 12z NAM is a SW All of CT specials with 2-3 inches of rain. Fixed. We struggle a bit north of the pike. Dont think we'll get a huge soaking up here but should at least be a needed drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Fixed. We struggle a bit north of the pike. Dont think we'll get a huge soaking up here but should at least be a needed drink. Really good consensus for a bit soaking here. Could it trend south with some type of convective issues... of course. But DIT saying sprinkles and drizzle is ridiculous at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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