powderfreak Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 On 9/15/2016 at 8:30 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Yup agreed.. How many times have we seen the Euro show massive widespread inches only to see 5 towns get that much while the rest of the area sees scattered showers . This one seems no different and it's even later in year with less forcing, lower dews near 70 and no cooling behind it Expand After all these years you must know how convection and the models work by now. Localized, localized, localized to a scale the models will not resolve. Like 0.15" in one town and 1.5" in another and the models paint a huge area of 0.75-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 On 9/15/2016 at 9:11 PM, Ginx snewx said: How many? Expand lol. I was thinking the same thing. I can't remember the Euro printing 2-3" over a large area of SNE except some streaks of convection during that period of "record" dews/heat. Maybe DIT has some other examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 On 9/15/2016 at 10:28 PM, powderfreak said: lol. I was thinking the same thing. I can't remember the Euro printing 2-3" over a large area of SNE except some streaks of convection during that period of "record" dews/heat. Maybe DIT has some other examples. Expand There's been 3-4 x at least this summer where the Euro has done this. Once or twice in August and once or twice in July. The July stuff ended being over NJ and the August stuff got some of SNE, but mostly CNE and NNE. Mets remember . Just because you don't remember doesn't mean it didn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 another .3" last night . September total 3.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 Top photo is from the drought in 1966, the bottom is from today standing in the same spot. It's getting bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 Only thing left are the snappers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 On 9/15/2016 at 10:06 PM, Damage In Tolland said: 3-5 Expand Lollis to 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 On 9/15/2016 at 2:07 PM, weathafella said: BOS is at 4.28 from 6/1/16-9/14/16. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand On 9/15/2016 at 3:16 PM, CoastalWx said: Subtract about 1" from 6/4/16 LOL. It's bad. Expand Noyes just showed a graphic with .72 for HFD and .29 for BOS Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 Euro ensembles are reasonably bullish for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 On 9/16/2016 at 11:03 AM, weathafella said: Euro ensembles are reasonably bullish for Monday. Expand Hope so, but they've looked like that several times this summer. This just reeks of a couple towns doing well while many others get screwed relatively speaking. Certainly nothing pointing to Regionwide rain. Almost looks like NNE and maybe far SW CT down into NYC area as other jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 On 9/16/2016 at 11:18 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Hope so, but they've looked like that several times this summer. This just reeks of a couple towns doing well while many others get screwed relatively speaking. Certainly nothing pointing to Regionwide rain. Almost looks like NNE and maybe far SW CT down into NYC area as other jack Expand Looks more widespread to me. Think a lot of areas get at least some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 On 9/16/2016 at 11:24 AM, CoastalWx said: Looks more widespread to me. Think a lot of areas get at least some rain. Expand That trail s/wv Sunday night could have some legs if we can entrain a bit of Julia moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 06z gfs had about 0.4" here thru day 8. Then 3-4" for days 9-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 I'm still shoveling all the snow the GGEM gave me last winter. Real good model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 most models are not wet today runs for early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 We dent, Nam crush job first up 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 dont count on it just showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 On 9/17/2016 at 2:56 AM, Ginx snewx said: We dent, Nam crush job first up 0Z Expand LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 On 9/15/2016 at 7:17 PM, OceanStWx said: This s/wv staying positively tilted as it moves into Canada also gives me pause for widespread welcomed rains. Reeks of forcing petering out as it moves through, and precip staying more scattered. Expand I'm in this camp. I don't see the mechanism for widespread 0.5" + rains with this in the exceptional drought region. The shortwave remains open and runs into confluence in SE Canada. Additionally, we don't even have convective forcing to work with--the atmospheric conditions out ahead of the s/w are relatively stable and cool and dry, and that doesn't change much as it approaches. I like northern maine and Vermont for wave one. And coastal Connecticut, RI LI/NYC, to cape cod for wave two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 I think those could be good starting points for jacks might even go into eastern NY and western MA, although it's still being worked out. I do think a lot of us get some water though. Maybe not all widespread 0.5"- 1", but it will probably be more widespread than anything we had all summer. There are some dynamics with this acting on high PWAT air, a bit of instability and front moving in. It's just too bad the s/w de amplifies a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 We dent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 On 9/17/2016 at 12:07 PM, jbenedet said: I'm in this camp. I don't see the mechanism for widespread 0.5" + rains with this in the exceptional drought region. The shortwave remains open and runs into confluence in SE Canada. Additionally, we don't even have convective forcing to work with--the atmospheric conditions out ahead of the s/w are relatively stable and cool and dry, and that doesn't change much as it approaches. I like northern maine and Vermont for wave one. And coastal Connecticut, RI LI/NYC, to cape cod for wave two. Expand Sounds like a fat screwgie for a lot in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 looking forward to the dent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 wont happen for sne area models have been to wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 I noticed there has not been any posts about the drought for the past 5 days. Living up here in Central NH its been dry but not like the Boston area. I don't notice any change in the forest canopy or shrubs up here. Just some brown lawns and minor stuff like that. I had to drive down to Boston today and took a quick detour through the western suburbs. Wow....for the average person that really does not notice the natural landscape in detail it really is no big deal. Personally I could not believe how many trees are in obvious distress. Many large trees starting to turn brownish. Big dead Rhododendrons and shrubs. Small planted trees in industrial parks dying. I think its going to be a very early foliage season with many trees not even going through color but just dropping leaves, especially with no rain in the forecast for at least 10 more days. It's funny with us weather nerds. If there is a chance of 2-4" of snow there might be 100 posts but with a slow mo major weather event like a drought no one posts. Of course it is very boring and not much to say but if this continues it really should be put in context as a major weather event for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 On 9/21/2016 at 7:46 PM, wxeyeNH said: I noticed there has not been any posts about the drought for the past 5 days. Living up here in Central NH its been dry but not like the Boston area. I don't notice any change in the forest canopy or shrubs up here. Just some brown lawns and minor stuff like that. I had to drive down to Boston today and took a quick detour through the western suburbs. Wow....for the average person that really does not notice the natural landscape in detail it really is no big deal. Personally I could not believe how many trees are in obvious distress. Many large trees starting to turn brownish. Big dead Rhododendrons and shrubs. Small planted trees in industrial parks dying. I think its going to be a very early foliage season with many trees not even going through color but just dropping leaves, especially with no rain in the forecast for at least 10 more days. It's funny with us weather nerds. If there is a chance of 2-4" of snow there might be 100 posts but with a slow mo major weather event like a drought no one posts. Of course it is very boring and not much to say but if this continues it really should be put in context as a major weather event for New England. Expand Oh it's beyond bad around here. We need multiple storms that drop 1-3" over the span of a couple days to put any dent in this. Here is the last 90 days. Around 25% of normal precip. of about -6" to -8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Can anyone estimate a pattern change? I feel this winter will be like last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 On 9/21/2016 at 7:46 PM, wxeyeNH said: It's funny with us weather nerds. If there is a chance of 2-4" of snow there might be 100 posts but with a slow mo major weather event like a drought no one posts. Of course it is very boring and not much to say but if this continues it really should be put in context as a major weather event for New England. Expand Drought is one of the two weather phenomena that I'd happily do away with, the other being freezing rain. Inconvenient and even destructive with little or no weenie appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 On 9/15/2016 at 12:39 PM, Ginx snewx said: better hope the Euro is right Expand We didn't dent. Suckage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.