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Sizeable drought affecting SNE


TalcottWx

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Was at my parents house yesterday they water everyday. Grass is perfectly green. They got a well that goes down 180 feet for lawn use only im sure that wont dry up anytime soon. The neighbors lawn is pretty much dead and brown you can see the line where the water doesnt reach lol

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I have been watering to keep mine from going dormant, it is the only green lawn in the neighborhood. there are lots of folks in my neighborhood with irrigation who just started watering, SMH. fearful however that we will start getting water restrictions though

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17 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Bone dry here but Monday's 3 inches really helped. Going into that anything lawn wise that was not watered was completely brown.   EURO shows a big dump of rain friday so maybe we're turning the corner.

Hope it works out for SNE.  06z gfs dumps 2"+ in your area, 1"+ in S. Maine, maybe 0.1" for me - would still be ahead of what fell out of last Fri-Mon's 3 days of TS and +RA forecasts.

Sandy River now just a few cfs from record low flows for the date.

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Very dry up here in Central New England too.  Some towns have been lucky to catch a thunderstorm others like me have missed most all this summer.  Here are 3 pictures from my webcam.  First is in April with my pond full.  Second one was 2 weeks ago when the pond with the last of the water but the lawns and fields still greenish.  Now everything is becoming a dust bowl.  Hoping to score the thunderstormnetcam04252016.jpg this afternoon!

netcam07152016.jpg

netcam07282016.jpg

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3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Very dry up here in Central New England too.  Some towns have been lucky to catch a thunderstorm others like me have missed most all this summer.  Here are 3 pictures from my webcam.  First is in April with my pond full.  Second one was 2 weeks ago when the pond with the last of the water but the lawns and fields still greenish.  Now everything is becoming a dust bowl.  Hoping to score the thunderstormnetcam04252016.jpg this afternoon!

netcam07152016.jpg

netcam07282016.jpg

That's crazy

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Was at my parents house yesterday they water everyday. Grass is perfectly green. They got a well that goes down 180 feet for lawn use only im sure that wont dry up anytime soon. The neighbors lawn is pretty much dead and brown you can see the line where the water doesnt reach lol


180' is not very deep. Ours is 500 and I'd be a bit nervous using it to water lawn right now. Depends on lawn size of course
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2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:


180' is not very deep. Ours is 500 and I'd be a bit nervous using it to water lawn right now. Depends on lawn size of course

Heh, I have an ancient well that's about 20 feet deep. It ran dry last week for the first time since I've lived here, but I was being a little careless with water use at the time, and it filled up again pretty quickly. Definitely not the most ideal setup in these dry conditions.

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On 7/28/2016 at 1:12 PM, wxeyeNH said:

Very dry up here in Central New England too.  Some towns have been lucky to catch a thunderstorm others like me have missed most all this summer.  Here are 3 pictures from my webcam.  First is in April with my pond full.  Second one was 2 weeks ago when the pond with the last of the water but the lawns and fields still greenish.  Now everything is becoming a dust bowl.  Hoping to score the thunderstorm this afternoon!

 

You must be getting missed quite regularly... Dendrite's numbers look pretty similar to middle of the pack in Vermont and certainly enough to not be termed "very dry".  Might be below normal, but nothing outside of the "norm" (say 1 standard deviation?). 

I'm around 9.0" of water since June 1st and almost 12" (11.88") since May 1st. 

Looks like since April 1st, places like northern Mass in the RT 2 corridor (HubbDave is probably one of the driest on the board) has literally gotten the shaft.  The mountains of NNE have been decent but still below normal.  Some sites in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont have had a lot of good t-storms and are above normal.  Locally I'm around 80-90% of normal I think.

GrowPNormNRCC.png

GrowPDataNRCC.png

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Strange to hear meager rain dripping off the leaves knowing it did almost nothing to help. 

One of our town fire captains was commiserating with me about the lack of rain on FB, but was hoping today would quell any flare ups of brush fires.

a couple hours later he chimed in that one from Tuesday started back up.

the pond at the Ecotarium in Worcester was almost dry this afternoon. Farmers are begging local towns to get water from town supplies. 

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 Conditions have deteriorated across the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes region over the last four weeks, and conditions are expected to persist through October. No net drought development is expected between mid-July and the end of October, but conditions could expand some and locally deteriorate over the next month or so before some degree of improvement comes during autumn. Short-term deterioration is most likely in the eastern Great Lakes region, where odds favor below-normal precipitation during August, according to the CPC Monthly Outlook. The central Appalachians and upper Ohio Valley, where short-term conditions have been particularly dry, may also see drought develop and intensify into August; however, the seasonal decline in temperature and surface moisture depletion through evaporation and water usage should bring at least limited relief late in the period. It is likely that drought conditions will change by the end of October, but given all forecast considerations, confidence is too low to forecast expansion into any specific area. On the other hand, there are no strong indicators pointing toward improvement by the end of October where drought currently exists, so persistence is generally anticipated. 

Forecast confidence for the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes region is moderate.  


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Unsettled weather through early Tuesday with scattered showers,
  mainly over northern and western areas
* Isolated thunderstorms possible across central and western
  areas Monday afternoon/evening
* Mostly dry weather expected Tuesday afternoon through Friday,
  with a warming trend toward the end of next week

Overview and model preferences...

30/12z guidance continues to shower decent overall agreement with
synoptic trends over this portion of the forecast. Agreement on
some of the more significant details, not so much.

Latest guidance continues to show an open wave of energy in the
mid levels passing the northeast USA early next week. Then the mid
level flow transitions to a nearly zonal flow for the second half
of next week. One question which still needs to be answered is how
close does another mid level open wave get to southern New England
toward next weekend. This nearly zonal flow should lead to much
quieter weather during the middle of next week.

At the surface, there is some disagreement at how close a pair of
low pressures get to our region early next week. This will be key
to determining how quickly the risk for showers winds down
Tuesday. The majority of the guidance keeps these low pressures to
our south Monday into Tuesday. So while not expecting a washout,
have low confidence with this portion of the forecast, especially
with timing.

Used a blend of available model and ensemble guidance for this
portion of the forecast.

Details...

Monday through early Tuesday...

Expect a couple of low pressures to slowly ride along a stalled
front just off the southern New England coast into early Tuesday.
This will keep a good low to mid level moisture feed across the
region thanks to an E-SE wind flow that will slowly back to NE
late Monday night into Tuesday as the final low pressure pushes
offshore.

The greatest risk for showers still appears to be Monday,
gradually diminishing Monday night into Tuesday. Greatest risk
for showers should be across the interior, but really anywhere in
southern New England has a shot at some showers or thunderstorms.

Will see the final low push offshore early Tuesday as it becomes
better organized. The last of the showers should start to
dissipate during the morning.

With the mainly onshore flow, expecting temperatures to run
several degrees below seasonal normals, especially toward the
coasts.

Tuesday afternoon through Friday...

This still looks like a mainly dry period of the forecast. Cannot
rule out a stray, isolated shower. There may be just enough
instability and moisture to generate one or two, especially across
the higher terrain of interior southern New England.

Temperatures should return to seasonal levels Wednesday, then
will warm further as winds become more S-SW as the high crests
across the region, then slowly pushes offshore. Humidity levels
will also slowly increase.

Saturday...A cold front is currently expected to cross our region.
This should lead to a chance of showers. Still lots of time to
work out the timing details.
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52 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

.5" here so far this morning combined with .24" from Friday afternoon showers should be quite helpful for the local farmers. 

The inverse of that here, .5" yesterday most of which fell in a brief heavy downpour, .25" so far today. 

Badly needed... the corn has been mediocre... chard and kale small and not vibrant... blueberries not very plump. 

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