Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[chubbs]

Relatively clear day today gives a good view of the "swiss cheese" pack this year, which is causing area to run unusually low relative to extent. This section is near the pole ( 88-89+N).

[nycwinter]

i am enjoying these winters since climate change who wants winters like in the mid 80's where it was so bitterly cold....

[bluewave]

Another big slowdown in extent losses in August as we have seen in recent years. While there was a record dipole in June, it quickly reversed in July and August. It was enough to cause the lagged steep losses we saw in July. But not enough to surpass 2012 extent in August. The Arctic will probably need more extended dipole patterns in the future in order to surpass the 2012 record as this recent paper found. But long range dipole forecasts beyond 6-10 days aren’t very good. So it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll finally get strong enough May melt pond preconditioning and an extended summer dipole. 
 

https://www.woodwellclimate.org/natural-atmospheric-cycle-has-been-stalling-the-loss-of-arctic-sea-ice/

https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/waning-arctic-summer

Arctic minimum projection

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/08/Projection_Aug18-350x236.png

Figure 6. The graph above shows projections of sea ice extent from August 18 through September 30 based on previous years’ observed retreat rates appended to the August 18, 2024, ice extent. Sea Ice Index data.

Credit: Walt Meier, National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

As noted above, currently, the sea ice extent stands at fourth lowest for this time of year. We can estimate the extent through the end of the summer using the daily ice loss rates from previous years to project the September minimum extent. This method, which has been regularly contributed to the Sea Ice Outlook, provides a reasonable range of the minimum extent. This year, using the average daily loss rates from 2007 to 2023, the projection starting from August 18 results in a projected minimum of 4.14 million square kilometers (1.60 million square miles), with a range of 3.93 to 4.35 million square kilometers (1.52  to 1.68 million square miles) (Figure 6). This suggests that this year’s minimum will potentially be the third lowest in the satellite record and likely to fall somewhere between the second and eighth lowest. It indicates that a new record low surpassing 2012 is very unlikely.

[Typhoon Tip]

it appears that early august period of time, back in 2012, is whence something happened ...  something took place, however unique/rare, that triggered an ensuing deeper nadir than fore or aft years.   that outlier could be telling. figuring out precisely why might be useful. heh

outlier to this sample size, for one.  which may or may not be an important distinction. 

i don't think it is less important tho, personally.  it happened once.  it can happen again.  trope, but unfortunately apropos.  and if/when that happens, the next time it will have the melt-advantage of doing so after an aggregated acceleration from 2012 to 2025's worth of CC. 

... well, it's rather intuitive to see where that goes. to spell it out, an abrupt 'fall off' - probably another 'leap year' that both surpasses 2012's scalar depth, but a greater delta wrt that local 10-year running average. 

not to be a monger of peril or anything, but the fact of reality is, we are experience and observing more and more synergistic events in the objective reality of earth - those that surpass leading indicators/predictions.  we could just as well be seeing a suppression of absolute 'melt capacitance' by fortuitous circulation modes ... and just not be aware of it (despite everything that is known).  when those 'lucky' offets break down or even reverse some future year, you get an over compensating rebound.  seems pretty obvious

[klw]

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it appears that early august period of time, back in 2012, is whence something happened ...  something took place, however unique/rare, that triggered an ensuing deeper nadir than fore or aft years.   that outlier could be telling. figuring out precisely why might be useful. heh

 

I assume you know but in case you don't the 2012 event was the so called GAC or Great Arctic Cyclone.

 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/78812/2012-arctic-cyclone

https://news.ucar.edu/7732/ice-vs-storm-2012s-great-arctic-cyclone

 

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, klw said:

I assume you know but in case you don't the 2012 event was the so called GAC or Great Arctic Cyclone.

 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/78812/2012-arctic-cyclone

https://news.ucar.edu/7732/ice-vs-storm-2012s-great-arctic-cyclone

 

yeah, i'm read/heard.   probably should've wrote 'considering' instead of 'figuring'   

 

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, klw said:

I assume you know but in case you don't the 2012 event was the so called GAC or Great Arctic Cyclone.

 

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/78812/2012-arctic-cyclone

https://news.ucar.edu/7732/ice-vs-storm-2012s-great-arctic-cyclone

 

Yeah,record preconditioning of the pack from May into July with strong dipole in tandem with the record -NAO and then the GAC. It’s been very challenging to get all those factors to line up during any summer since then. It will be interesting see how long it will take the Arctic to warm enough were a less hostile pattern for sea ice retention will still result in the 2012 record getting surpassed.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/five-things-understand-about-ice-free-arctic

Obviously, 2012 being below average had a lot to do with the long-term trend. But the fact that it was record-low was due to the weather. Not only did Arctic atmospheric circulation favor sea ice decline in 2012, but there was another contributing factor. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported a strong storm centered over the Arctic in August of that year. The storm broke up the Arctic’s sea ice, driving down its extent, although the precise impact of this individual storm remains unclear.

Storms are nothing new in the Arctic Ocean, but their influence on sea ice has grown over time. Dániel Topál says, “Weather events and storms definitely play a huge role. Sea ice is getting younger and younger, thinner and thinner.”

Arctic sea ice is thinning because less ice survives summer melt seasons. Whereas ice that has survived multiple melt seasons is thick, rough, and resistant to melt, younger ice is vulnerable to storm-induced breakups. The same storm, encountering thicker ice, would likely have had less impact.

“I think with the thinner, younger ice that’s in the Arctic now, there is the potential for even more sea ice variability,” Walter Meier says. Several years of [weather] conditions that favor ice growth, or at least ice preservation, would slow the arrival of an ice-free Arctic summer; a few years of extreme melt conditions or a few strong storms could hasten the arrival of ice-free conditions. But, Meier explains, weather conditions can’t be predicted more than about 10 days into the future. Furthermore, scientists don’t have a handle on potential changes in weather systems, such as Arctic storm intensity, that may emerge in coming decades.

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, Arctic sea ice extent fell to the third lowest for August 27th on JAXA. At present, it appears that 2024 will become the fourth year to record a minimum figure under 4 million square kilometers. 2012, 2019, and 2020 are the other years with minimum figures below 4 million square kilometers. The decline despite less than hostile conditions illustrates the importance of thickness. Thin ice melts out more easily. Winter recovery means little if the ice remains thin.

Climate change deniers often point to winter ice recovery to make bold and ultimately futile claims that Arctic sea ice is recovering. One such example was fact checked back in May, and now looks even more foolish in light of the most recent data.

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.34QL9NW

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday, Arctic sea ice extent fell to the third lowest for August 27th on JAXA. At present, it appears that 2024 will become the fourth year to record a minimum figure under 4 million square kilometers. 2012, 2019, and 2020 are the other years with minimum figures below 4 million square kilometers. The decline despite less than hostile conditions illustrates the importance of thickness. Thin ice melts out more easily. Winter recovery means little if the ice remains thin.

Climate change deniers often point to winter ice recovery to make bold and ultimately futile claims that Arctic sea ice is recovering. One such example was fact checked back in May, and now looks even more foolish in light of the most recent data.

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.34QL9NW

That is rough to see not a great look for Millersville, unfortunately I know the lead Meteorologist in the weather station and not a big fan to say the least. This fits right into his beliefs.

[FPizz]

On 8/28/2024 at 1:00 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Yesterday, Arctic sea ice extent fell to the third lowest for August 27th on JAXA. At present, it appears that 2024 will become the fourth year to record a minimum figure under 4 million square kilometers. 2012, 2019, and 2020 are the other years with minimum figures below 4 million square kilometers. The decline despite less than hostile conditions illustrates the importance of thickness. Thin ice melts out more easily. Winter recovery means little if the ice remains thin.

Climate change deniers often point to winter ice recovery to make bold and ultimately futile claims that Arctic sea ice is recovering. One such example was fact checked back in May, and now looks even more foolish in light of the most recent data.

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.34QL9NW

His posts always say he believes in CC.  His point is and he always asks what is the catastrophic outcome of all the hysteria posts that get printed daily.  There is zero accountability in the 100s of CC posts and articles.  They make these claims that never come to fruition and then nothing because the scare tactic already worked.  I see the one time you replied to him, he ripped you shreds then you hid like a coward and never answered the solid questions he asked back to you when he asked to supply specific evidence of the catastrophic claims.  Post this on his feed instead of here where 5 people read it.

[Cobalt]

30 minutes ago, FPizz said:

There is zero accountability in the 100s of CC posts and articles.

There is zero accountability in the climate denial/downplaying space. I have yet to see a CC downplayer apologize for wrongly claiming global temperatures had peaked with the "1998-2012 temperature pause", or for using the Antarctic sea ice peak in 2014-15 to tout the "more ice than ever" headline. 

[donsutherland1]

On 8/29/2024 at 1:43 PM, FPizz said:

His posts always say he believes in CC.  His point is and he always asks what is the catastrophic outcome of all the hysteria posts that get printed daily.  There is zero accountability in the 100s of CC posts and articles.  They make these claims that never come to fruition and then nothing because the scare tactic already worked.  I see the one time you replied to him, he ripped you shreds then you hid like a coward and never answered the solid questions he asked back to you when he asked to supply specific evidence of the catastrophic claims.  Post this on his feed instead of here where 5 people read it.

Total nonsense. He shifted the goalposts (evaded the actual issue) and then blocked me so that I couldn’t reply. In fact, it turns out he is a serial spreader of disinformation.

Examples:

Atlantic Cooling: https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.36EV7CC
Sea level rise: https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.34ZB4RX
Arctic sea ice: https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.34QL9NW

With three fact checks by AFP for posted disinformation, Martz is in elite company. Numbers through August 28, 2024:

P.S. His conduct has not gone unnoticed by NWS and private sector meteorologists, a number of whom he attacked at various times. That's not a good way to earn trust among prospective colleagues (something some have told him to little avail).

[donsutherland1]

From the latest Arctic News blog:

[chubbs]

Surface melt balance anomaly for Arctic ice caps relative to 1980-2010. The grey shaded area is one standard deviation. Melt was slightly above average for Greenland and well above average for the remainder. Record losses occurred  from Svalbard through Franz Joseph to the Russian High Islands, mainly in July and August, showing the warmth near the Atlantic sea ice margin.

https://www.climato.uliege.be/cms/c_5855702/fr/climato-arctic

[bluewave]

On 8/30/2024 at 6:26 AM, chubbs said:

Record losses occurred  from Svalbard through Franz Joseph to the Russian High Islands, mainly in July and August, showing the warmth near the Atlantic sea ice margin.

Historic warmth for Svalbard. 

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Historic warmth for Svalbard. 

 

 

 

Don't think it's a coincidence we started seeing a spike right after NAtl SSTs started surging. Svalbard sits right along a current that incorporates Atlantic water. I strongly suspect we'll see more deleterious effects once that Atlantic water layer shoals into the Arctic.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Don't think it's a coincidence we started seeing a spike right after NAtl SSTs started surging. Svalbard sits right along a current that incorporates Atlantic water. I strongly suspect we'll see more deleterious effects once that Atlantic water layer shoals into the Arctic.

I take the question one step further ...

I noticed that curve at Svalbard started that ascent really back in 2022, each year since accelerating relative to the previous year.  The difference between 2021 and 2022 appears to be a factor of 2 > than just about any differential along the previous 120 years of that record keeping.  Then, 2022-2023, which contains the global heat surging phenomenon, the rise was again ~ 1.5 X as long as 2021-2022, make it almost 4X more than the average deltas.

It seems that which caused the global surge may have been underway prior to it actually showing up pervasively elsewhere ( spring of 2023 ).  I wonder if other similar latitude station sites around the hemisphere also presaged the temperature surge, where they started lift off before the mid latitudes and the rest of us observed the explosive rise.  

One other aspect that puzzles me still ... why did the air over land, AND the ocean SSTs, rise together like that.   It wasn't just the atmosphere that warmed all a once in the 'big burst'.   everything cooked all at once.

Otherwise, agreed ...  the termination of the N branch of the g-stream up there may be mucking with matters.   

[bluewave]

On 8/31/2024 at 1:40 PM, csnavywx said:

Don't think it's a coincidence we started seeing a spike right after NAtl SSTs started surging. Svalbard sits right along a current that incorporates Atlantic water. I strongly suspect we'll see more deleterious effects once that Atlantic water layer shoals into the Arctic.

We probably could have challenged the 2012 extent record if the record blocking this summer was closer to Canada and Greenland like in 2012. The 500mb block back in June was the strongest ever recorded for that part of the world for the month. But it shifted closer to Svalbard later in the summer and spared Greenland and the Canadian Arctic. 
 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Area is down to 2.47 million sq km....not sure how much further we can drop given the likely refreezing of the central CAB commencing where there's a lot of low concentration ice right now, but if we can drop below 2.42 million sqkm, then that would beat 2016 for second place.

[Typhoon Tip]

I’m suspicious of the melt season lasting 10 or so days late. 
 

 

[csnavywx]

23 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

ea is down to 2.47 million sq km....not sure how much further we can drop given the likely refreezing of the central CAB commencing where there's a lot of low concentration ice right now, but if we can drop below 2.42 million sqkm, then that would beat 2016 for second place.

Very 2016'esque looking pack too. A broken mess. 2012's pack was pretty well consolidated at the end of the season which helped it reach its very low extent value.

[csnavywx]

On 8/27/2024 at 10:03 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

it appears that early august period of time, back in 2012, is whence something happened ...  something took place, however unique/rare, that triggered an ensuing deeper nadir than fore or aft years.   that outlier could be telling. figuring out precisely why might be useful. heh

outlier to this sample size, for one.  which may or may not be an important distinction. 

i don't think it is less important tho, personally.  it happened once.  it can happen again.  trope, but unfortunately apropos.  and if/when that happens, the next time it will have the melt-advantage of doing so after an aggregated acceleration from 2012 to 2025's worth of CC. 

... well, it's rather intuitive to see where that goes. to spell it out, an abrupt 'fall off' - probably another 'leap year' that both surpasses 2012's scalar depth, but a greater delta wrt that local 10-year running average. 

not to be a monger of peril or anything, but the fact of reality is, we are experience and observing more and more synergistic events in the objective reality of earth - those that surpass leading indicators/predictions.  we could just as well be seeing a suppression of absolute 'melt capacitance' by fortuitous circulation modes ... and just not be aware of it (despite everything that is known).  when those 'lucky' offets break down or even reverse some future year, you get an over compensating rebound.  seems pretty obvious

Yeah, I've observed this kind of effect before, where new data points show up on a chart that don't seem to even fit within the existing PDF. I made that remark about the '21 Northwest heatwave. You could make the very same case right now over the Sahara Desert. "Climate flickering" so to speak. As far as Svalbard is concerned, is it the "emergence" of a new PDF? Are the tails or skew just changing shape? Does it just mean revert? Can't know for sure without additional years of data tacked on. One thing is for sure, the volatility seems to have suddenly increased in the past few years and that by itself isn't typically a great sign for the stability of any system. Once you "un-pin" volatility like that, future moves are usually outsized.

In this particular case, we know the Atlantic Water Layer has been steadily shoaling up through the Eurasian side of the Arctic. I'm sure this little episode isn't going to help that.

[ORH_wxman]

On 9/5/2024 at 4:25 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Area is down to 2.47 million sq km....not sure how much further we can drop given the likely refreezing of the central CAB commencing where there's a lot of low concentration ice right now, but if we can drop below 2.42 million sqkm, then that would beat 2016 for second place.

Looks like 2.47 may have been the min. Up to 2.58 million sq km as the central CAB low-concentration ice is refreezing now.

[bdgwx]

Here is a just published article on the sea ice volume declines.

[Soriot et al. 2024] - Winter arctic sea ice volume decline: uncertainties reduced using passive microwave-based sea ice thickness

And if I'm not mistaken the DMI sea ice volume summer minimum reached a new record low beating out 2012.

[Typhoon Tip]

it's almost like folks are waiting for a difference, when it is far more obvious we are not deviating enough from the longer term reality (multi decadal) of arctic ice loss.    we could have two relative 'gain years' back to back ( tho I almost doubt that is physically possible at this point) and it still would not deviate from that reality. because the next 5 years would just end up less than where it all was before the 2 gainers.  until CC stops ... i see no other destiny.  guess the purpose of this monitoring is to guess the day it is all gone?   heh

i will say this though ... my own observations/data over the years suggests that the rate of seasonal recovery is more important than the scalar value of the ice at the seasonal nadir - if one is in this for lag correlations on winter proficiency for cold into mid latitudes.    may be something about the cyclic nature of pv integrity ... when it's strong early ( hence, +d ... ), it seems to naturally decay into years of better blocking by mid winter - perhaps because modes typically reverse ( but not always - ) every 45 or 90 days.  this model that I am describing has always led me to more interest in monitoring the state of things as we head into october and november ... i have to say though, with the crazy pattern behaviors, non-dependability has my confidence rattled that any model is very useful anymore.  

[Typhoon Tip]

not 'sea ice' per se, but is a close cousin.  

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/18/JCLI-D-23-0396.1.xml

[so_whats_happening]

It looks like we have just about hit the bottom for extent and area has started to see a nice uptick since the beginning of the month. Probably have a some refreezing happening in the next week start to show up? It is possible this waits until the beginning of October to start the process. Lotta warmth still running around.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

It looks like we have just about hit the bottom for extent and area has started to see a nice uptick since the beginning of the month. Probably have a some refreezing happening in the next week start to show up? It is possible this waits until the beginning of October to start the process. Lotta warmth still running around.

i was wondering if we might see a week or two late anomaly on that myself, but perhaps that won't be the case.  mostly because the indexes seemed to suggest less favorable retention into these first weeks of sept.   arctic oscillation going negative in latter august and so forth.  

it seems sept 7 to 15 is the corner-turning week when looking at that historically.  not sure about all years in that but just a cursory look at the curves.

that might be an interestingly damning signal at some point in the future.  say if some tortured retention year ... then goes on to actually waiting to turn the corner until a couple of weeks later.  - the ultimate threshold crossing, so to speak. 

the thing is, on sept 15 the sun is crawling along the horizon at the geo n pole.  by this sunday morning, it's twilight there.  it's not a huge intuitive leap to guess why sept 15 tends to formally end the melting, when talking about ssts of 32 F losing solar input at that time.   so in a sense, that should leave some combination of the background climate, together with whatever pattern anomalies and heat transporting in, as the remaining forcing for any such extension of melting.  so if it were belated and the pattern isn't as obviously culpable ..well that doesn't leave much else and that would scream a threshold. 

hell, if nothing else, good science fiction.  lol

 

[bluewave]

This is another season which confirms that the big shift in the Arctic occurred with the record multiyear ice drop back in 2007. We have had over a decade now without the extended May to August dipole patterns from 2007 to 2012. But none of the years since have been able to recover back to  the extent, area, or multiyear ice levels which were common before 2007. 
 

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05686-x

Manifestations of climate change are often shown as gradual changes in physical or biogeochemical properties¹. Components of the climate system, however, can show stepwise shifts from one regime to another, as a nonlinear response of the system to a changing forcing². Here we show that the Arctic sea ice regime shifted in 2007 from thicker and deformed to thinner and more uniform ice cover. Continuous sea ice monitoring in the Fram Strait over the last three decades revealed the shift. After the shift, the fraction of thick and deformed ice dropped by half and has not recovered to date. The timing of the shift was preceded by a two-step reduction in residence time of sea ice in the Arctic Basin, initiated first in 2005 and followed by 2007. We demonstrate that a simple model describing the stochastic process of dynamic sea ice thickening explains the observed ice thickness changes as a result of the reduced residence time. Our study highlights the long-lasting impact of climate change on the Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time and its connection to the coupled ocean–sea ice processes in the adjacent marginal seas and shelves of the Arctic Ocean.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is another season which confirms that the big shift in the Arctic occurred with the record multiyear ice drop back in 2007. We have had over a decade now without the extended May to August dipole patterns from 2007 to 2012. But none of the years since have been able to rebound back to  the extent, area, or multiyear ice levels which were common before 2007. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05686-x

Manifestations of climate change are often shown as gradual changes in physical or biogeochemical properties¹. Components of the climate system, however, can show stepwise shifts from one regime to another, as a nonlinear response of the system to a changing forcing². Here we show that the Arctic sea ice regime shifted in 2007 from thicker and deformed to thinner and more uniform ice cover. Continuous sea ice monitoring in the Fram Strait over the last three decades revealed the shift. After the shift, the fraction of thick and deformed ice dropped by half and has not recovered to date. The timing of the shift was preceded by a two-step reduction in residence time of sea ice in the Arctic Basin, initiated first in 2005 and followed by 2007. We demonstrate that a simple model describing the stochastic process of dynamic sea ice thickening explains the observed ice thickness changes as a result of the reduced residence time. Our study highlights the long-lasting impact of climate change on the Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time and its connection to the coupled ocean–sea ice processes in the adjacent marginal seas and shelves of the Arctic Ocean

 

But everyone on here said the ice would recover and/or we didn't have enough data to opine on the significance of the record ice loss. I said "no, the arctic is in a death spiral." I wonder who was right?