Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[csnavywx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Based on these cooler May temperatures across the Arctic, the melt pond season is probably getting off to a slower start. This is what the melt pond model uses to project a September minimum when the data is released in June by Will Gregory CPOM. So this could mean that the 2012 record will be safe for another year. It’s the opposite of the May record warmth which lead to the big melt year in 2020.

 

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

So far, so good and a cursory examination of MODIS reveals most of the ponding is in the CAA so far this year with some small early melt in the Beaufort. An annular upper level pattern (+AO) has been generally protective of the basin proper. However, possible +AD lurking dead ahead with a split stream pattern (enhanced ST jet well separated from a weakened polar jet) and that favors lower heights/cooler temps in the mid-lats/subtropics and enhanced blocking in the upper mid-lats to high latitudes:

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

Add in CFS weeklies (wk 2-4) and June monthly to that bin -- which have started aligning strongly with the projected pattern of the others.

 

[csnavywx]

The Canadian province fires experienced so far may just end up being a warm-up if this pattern is to persist as advertised and we may see another smoke-induced aerosol response.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

So far, so good and a cursory examination of MODIS reveals most of the ponding is in the CAA so far this year with some small early melt in the Beaufort. An annular upper level pattern (+AO) has been generally protective of the basin proper. However, possible +AD lurking dead ahead with a split stream pattern (enhanced ST jet well separated from a weakened polar jet) and that favors lower heights/cooler temps in the mid-lats/subtropics and enhanced blocking in the upper mid-lats to high latitudes:

 

 

 

 

 

Upper patterns are very difficult to forecast in Arctic beyond a week and sometimes two. The one thing we can say now is that we didn’t see the record preconditioning event like occurred in May 2020. That was the only year in the last decade that came close to challenging 2012. The model based on May 2020 melt pond fraction did a great job. It also did reasonably well with other recent years.

https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/june

Executive summary" of your Outlook contribution (using 300 words or less) describe how and why your contribution was formulated. To the extent possible, use non-technical language.
We predict the September ice extent 2020 to be 3.8 (3.3-4.3) million km2. This is the lowest prediction we have made based on spring melt pond fraction. The likehood is around 30% that this September extent will be a new minimum record. In our model simulation since 1979, May 2020 has the highest mean melt pond fraction for May including some unprecedented melt pond formation in the Central Arctic during 15-18 May when air temperature exceeded 0deg C.

This statistical model computes a forecast of pan-Arctic September sea ice extent . Monthly averaged May sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature fields between 1979 and 2020 were used to create a climate network (based on the approach of Gregory et al 2020). This was then utilised in a Bayesian Linear Regression in order to forecast September extent. The model predicts a pan-Arctic extent of 3.96 million square kilometres. Sea ice concentration data were taken from NSIDC (Cavalieri et al., 1996; Maslanik and Stroeve,1999). Sea surface temperature data were from ERA5 reanalysis.

 

 

[csnavywx]

 

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Upper patterns are very difficult to forecast in Arctic beyond a week and sometimes two. The one thing we can say now is that we didn’t see the record preconditioning event like occurred in May 2020. That was the only year in the last decade that came close to challenging 2012. The model based on May 2020 melt pond fraction did a great job. It also did reasonably well with other recent years.

https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2020/june

Executive summary" of your Outlook contribution (using 300 words or less) describe how and why your contribution was formulated. To the extent possible, use non-technical language.
We predict the September ice extent 2020 to be 3.8 (3.3-4.3) million km2. This is the lowest prediction we have made based on spring melt pond fraction. The likehood is around 30% that this September extent will be a new minimum record. In our model simulation since 1979, May 2020 has the highest mean melt pond fraction for May including some unprecedented melt pond formation in the Central Arctic during 15-18 May when air temperature exceeded 0deg C.

This statistical model computes a forecast of pan-Arctic September sea ice extent . Monthly averaged May sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature fields between 1979 and 2020 were used to create a climate network (based on the approach of Gregory et al 2020). This was then utilised in a Bayesian Linear Regression in order to forecast September extent. The model predicts a pan-Arctic extent of 3.96 million square kilometres. Sea ice concentration data were taken from NSIDC (Cavalieri et al., 1996; Maslanik and Stroeve,1999). Sea surface temperature data were from ERA5 reanalysis.

 

 

Yes, it's normally quite tough. In this case however, we've got a few "synoptically evident" drivers, two of which are STY Mawar and the location of the Pac jet (STJ). Once that recurves and interacts with the jet and baroclinic zone to the north, it is forecast to induce a large scale wave break via jet enhancement. This is a pretty common occurrence with large/strong recurving typhoons, it's just much earlier in the season than would normally be expected. A strong Bering Sea low and large scale downstream ridging resulting from that RWB is not conducive for the current +AO/annular pattern to maintain its grip. At the very least you would expect some significant disruption for a while.

[csnavywx]

Btw, no argument that May melt ponds are a significant contributor! It's a good theory with consistent results. However, it's a tool like any other. 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Btw, no argument that May melt ponds are a significant contributor! It's a good theory with consistent results. However, it's a tool like any other. 

Yeah, the other factor may be that it has been harder to get new warm season records with the much thinner sea ice state.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/with-thick-ice-gone-arctic-sea-ice-changes-more-slowly

Kwok's research, published today in the journal Environmental Research Letters, combined decades of declassified U.S. Navy submarine measurements with more recent data from four satellites to create the 60-year record of changes in Arctic sea ice thickness. He found that since 1958, Arctic ice cover has lost about two-thirds of its thickness, as averaged across the Arctic at the end of summer. Older ice has shrunk in area by almost 800,000 square miles (more than 2 million square kilometers). Today, 70 percent of the ice cover consists of ice that forms and melts within a single year, which scientists call seasonal ice.

The increase in seasonal ice also means record-breaking changes in ice cover such as those of the 1990s and 2000s are likely to be less common, Kwok noted. In fact, there has not been a new record sea ice minimum since 2012, despite years of warm weather in the Arctic. "We've lost so much of the thick ice that changes in thickness are going to be slower due to the different behavior of this ice type," Kwok said.

[ORH_wxman]

Almost time to start tracking NSIDC area....it's still a bit early right now, but by 6/15, it will really be worth tracking much closer.

I don't see any drastic conditions developing at the moment. Daily area is tracking a bit above the 2010s average, and the forecast looks fairly benign up there for the next week. We'll want to see that change to a more defined dipole setup (high pressure on the North American side with low pressure on the Asian side) if we're going to even entertain the possibility of a new record this year.

Things can change though with relatively little warning as bluewave stated above on how unreliable the arctic forecasts are once past 4-6 days. So we'll monitor the guidance and see if anything interesting happens. Some of the medium range guidance beyond D8 is trying to retrograde a block into Greenland and possibly further northwest which would be a stronger melt setup if that block can make it back into the arctic basin....but we've seen a few false alarms already early in this melt season.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost time to start tracking NSIDC area....it's still a bit early right now, but by 6/15, it will really be worth tracking much closer.

I don't see any drastic conditions developing at the moment. Daily area is tracking a bit above the 2010s average, and the forecast looks fairly benign up there for the next week. We'll want to see that change to a more defined dipole setup (high pressure on the North American side with low pressure on the Asian side) if we're going to even entertain the possibility of a new record this year.

Things can change though with relatively little warning as bluewave stated above on how unreliable the arctic forecasts are once past 4-6 days. So we'll monitor the guidance and see if anything interesting happens. Some of the medium range guidance beyond D8 is trying to retrograde a block into Greenland and possibly further northwest which would be a stronger melt setup if that block can make it back into the arctic basin....but we've seen a few false alarms already early in this melt season.

Just adding in brief...

there is a robust MJO signal that is emerging in strength, in model trends ... from all tool sources, and it portends to a wave space that correlates to a +AO. 

Not sure how that factors into the dizzying array of posted material that seems to convey simultaneous points at times ( lol..) but, I thought I'd add that to ( hopefully) confuse matters even more...

j/k. But seriously on the MJO stuff.   The other aspect, the dispersion mechanics at large scales - it isn't very clear to me how the MJO forcing ( or not) integrates into the boreal summer hemisphere. It prooobably does not as well as the cold season for obvious reasons.  That said, the last 3 weeks seemed to align fairly well with the MJO progression over the time span... It sent a blocking signal, we have been plagued by a blocking quasi-omega ridge like feature across the southern Canadian Shield ...and everyone's happy. Seems to be trying to lag into a -NAO response, too - but I wonder if these upstream Pac/dispersion arrivals might abandon that look some.

I've been watching this signal with the phase 2.5 --> 6.5 emerge and it's getting robust at this point. I think or would suggest that the "forcing" from that might not yet be "detected" in the modeling physics just yet; if/when that happens we'd see more of these warm blooms into mid latitudes - there's been an increase in model cycles that depict a June 15th + for an orientation switch as it is...  Which would steepen the gradient wrt the vestigial polarward height nadir, ...speeding up the vortex --> +AO.  So supposition involved there...

Sorry for the lesson ...just explaining the thought circuitry -

[ORH_wxman]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just adding in brief...

there is a robust MJO signal that is emerging in strength, in model trends ... from all tool sources, and it portends to a wave space that correlates to a +AO. 

Not sure how that factors into the dizzying array of posted material that seems to convey simultaneous points at times ( lol..) but, I thought I'd add that to ( hopefully) confuse matters even more...

j/k. But seriously on the MJO stuff.   The other aspect, the dispersion mechanics at large scales - it isn't very clear to me how the MJO forcing ( or not) integrates into the boreal summer hemisphere. It prooobably does not as well as the cold season for obvious reasons.  That said, the last 3 weeks seemed to align fairly well with the MJO progression over the time span... It sent a blocking signal, we have been plagued by a blocking quasi-omega ridge like feature across the southern Canadian Shield ...and everyone's happy. Seems to be trying to lag into a -NAO response, too - but I wonder if these upstream Pac/dispersion arrivals might abandon that look some.

I've been watching this signal with the phase 2.5 --> 6.5 emerge and it's getting robust at this point. I think or would suggest that the "forcing" from that might not yet be "detected" in the modeling physics just yet; if/when that happens we'd see more of these warm blooms into mid latitudes - there's been an increase in model cycles that depict a June 15th + for an orientation switch as it is...  Which would steepen the gradient wrt the vestigial polarward height nadir, ...speeding up the vortex --> +AO.  So supposition involved there...

Sorry for the lesson ...just explaining the thought circuitry -

Funny you posted this earlier this morning and then the 12z guidance today comes out and is noticeably lower with heights over the arctic in the D7-10 timeframe. So maybe there is something to the MJO idea you were touting. This melt season frankly looks kind of boring so far....but again, things could change quickly if the 2nd half of June has prime conditions for ice loss.

The slow start still makes record territory unlikely even should the pattern flip later in June. Those big melt years like 2007/2012/2016/2020 all had significantly above average melt ponding starting up by now.

[bluewave]

On 5/26/2023 at 10:10 AM, bluewave said:

Based on these cooler May temperatures across the Arctic, the melt pond season is probably getting off to a slower start. This is what the melt pond model uses to project a September minimum when the data is released in June by Will Gregory CPOM. So this could mean that the 2012 record will be safe for another year. It’s the opposite of the May record warmth which lead to the big melt year in 2020.

 

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

This was the 2nd lowest 500 mb heights near the pole for May with the deep +AO +NAO trough that was in place.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

 

Abstract

The sixth assessment report of the IPCC assessed that the Arctic is projected to be on average practically ice-free in September near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, though not under low emissions scenarios, based on simulations from the latest generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Here we show, using an attribution analysis approach, that a dominant influence of greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in three observational datasets in all months of the year, but is on average underestimated by CMIP6 models. By scaling models’ sea ice response to greenhouse gases to best match the observed trend in an approach validated in an imperfect model test, we project an ice-free Arctic in September under all scenarios considered. These results emphasize the profound impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the Arctic, and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Abstract

The sixth assessment report of the IPCC assessed that the Arctic is projected to be on average practically ice-free in September near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, though not under low emissions scenarios, based on simulations from the latest generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Here we show, using an attribution analysis approach, that a dominant influence of greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in three observational datasets in all months of the year, but is on average underestimated by CMIP6 models. By scaling models’ sea ice response to greenhouse gases to best match the observed trend in an approach validated in an imperfect model test, we project an ice-free Arctic in September under all scenarios considered. These results emphasize the profound impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the Arctic, and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8

Good afternoon Tip. Forgive my foundation of ignorance. If the Arctic waters are ice free for any period and continue to absorb heat ….. how will that affect the Canadian and Asian land shields regarding frozen precipitation. Would/could there be Arctic Ocean effect snows. Or will the ice free dynamic work differently, as the cold sunless season develops? Stay well, as always ..

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Abstract

The sixth assessment report of the IPCC assessed that the Arctic is projected to be on average practically ice-free in September near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, though not under low emissions scenarios, based on simulations from the latest generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Here we show, using an attribution analysis approach, that a dominant influence of greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in three observational datasets in all months of the year, but is on average underestimated by CMIP6 models. By scaling models’ sea ice response to greenhouse gases to best match the observed trend in an approach validated in an imperfect model test, we project an ice-free Arctic in September under all scenarios considered. These results emphasize the profound impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the Arctic, and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8

I see a lot of media reporting this as "it's too late to save Arctic summer ice." I'm not so sure. I think a targeted system of solar radiation management by spraying aerosols in the atmosphere over the Arctic each summer could buy us sufficient time to draw down GHG levels. But none of our do-nothing politicians want to have that discussion!

[roardog]

13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I see a lot of media reporting this as "it's too late to save Arctic summer ice." I'm not so sure. I think a targeted system of solar radiation management by spraying aerosols in the atmosphere over the Arctic each summer could buy us sufficient time to draw down GHG levels. But none of our do-nothing politicians want to have that discussion!

I’m not sure intentional climate change is better than unintentional climate change.

[TheClimateChanger]

22 minutes ago, roardog said:

I’m not sure intentional climate change is better than unintentional climate change.

I mean, it's not ideal. But when the alternative is a guaranteed blue ocean event and the permanent loss of the Arctic as we know it, what other choice do we have?

[ORH_wxman]

19 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I mean, it's not ideal. But when the alternative is a guaranteed blue ocean event and the permanent loss of the Arctic as we know it, what other choice do we have?

Why does a blue ocean event have to be permanent? If GHGs eventually come down, the ice would respond just like it did after previous blue ocean events during the peak of the Holocene.

Spraying a bunch of sulfates into the arctic atmosphere sounds like a really bad idea.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why does a blue ocean event have to be permanent? If GHGs eventually come down, the ice would respond just like it did after previous blue ocean events during the peak of the Holocene.

Spraying a bunch of sulfates into the arctic atmosphere sounds like a really bad idea.

Yea I feel it may just complicate things even worse than they have been. We see how the impact of reducing aerosols in the mid latitudes is going we are seeing some of the of the warmest readings in oceans and atmosphere in our recorded history. If we dropped the aerosols all together boy are we in for some heating. 

If we cut back on GHGs it wont be an immediate response of course but it will be better in the long run of less warming potential being placed on the system than if we continue on this path. Methane and water vapor ruling the day on the short term aspect of warming.

[so_whats_happening]

Still surprisingly nothing crazy to report on in the Arctic but the Antarctic is just not doing good at all...

 

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Still surprisingly nothing crazy to report on in the Arctic but the Antarctic is just not doing good at all...

 

 I'm guessing that the Arctic ice has been helped by a cooler than normal period dominating the last 7 weeks:

Edit: The only two Mays back to 1958 comparably cool to 2023 were 1964 and 2015 per these graphs.

[ORH_wxman]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I'm guessing that the Arctic ice has been helped by a cooler than normal period dominating the last 7 weeks:

Edit: The only two Mays back to 1958 comparably cool to 2023 were 1964 and 2015 per these graphs.

You really need a 70N graph as 80N is a pretty small area around the pole. 2015 was pretty warm outside of that region....this year has been less so. We've seen decent area losses the past week but a huge percentage of them have come from Hudson Bay and other peripheral seas. The main arctic basin is off to a slow start this melt season, so I'm not seeing much potential for a top 3 melt season unless it turns around quickly.

 

I'll start tracking the numbers more closely in a couple days....but even right now, we're trailing 2012 by around 700k on area loss.

 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

You really need a 70N graph as 80N is a pretty small area around the pole. 2015 was pretty warm outside of that region....this year has been less so. We've seen decent area losses the past week but a huge percentage of them have come from Hudson Bay and other peripheral seas. The main arctic basin is off to a slow start this melt season, so I'm not seeing much potential for a top 3 melt season unless it turns around quickly.
 
I'll start tracking the numbers more closely in a couple days....but even right now, we're trailing 2012 by around 700k on area loss.
 
 

Dating back to 2013, area is currently the 3rd highest, and 10th dating back to 2000

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

First update of the season comparing other years....I'll try to update this fairly frequently until the end of the month when we can make a skilled prediction on the minimum.

On 6/15, daily NSIDC area was at 8.82 million sq km, here's where other years were compared at the same time:

2022: -100k

2021: -190k

2020: -320k

2019: -560k

2018: +40k

2017: +10k

2016: -380k

2015: -150k

2014: -20k

2013: +90k

2012: -830k

2011: -300k

2010: -310k

2009: +560k

2008: +110k

2007: -240k

 

You can see we're off to a slow start in the post-2007 context as most years were lower by this point. Model guidance doesn't really show anything extreme in the next week or so. There's a weak high over a chunk of the pacific side of the basin right now that is causing some sfc melt, but cooler conditions are forecasted to sweep in over the next few days. There's signs of a weak dipole trying to develop later next week, but you'd like to see it more pronounced to really get the momentum going after a slow start.

 

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

First update of the season comparing other years....I'll try to update this fairly frequently until the end of the month when we can make a skilled prediction on the minimum.

On 6/15, daily NSIDC area was at 8.82 million sq km, here's where other years were compared at the same time:

2022: -100k

2021: -190k

2020: -320k

2019: -560k

2018: +40k

2017: +10k

2016: -380k

2015: -150k

2014: -20k

2013: +90k

2012: -830k

2011: -300k

2010: -310k

2009: +560k

2008: +110k

2007: -240k

 

You can see we're off to a slow start in the post-2007 context as most years were lower by this point. Model guidance doesn't really show anything extreme in the next week or so. There's a weak high over a chunk of the pacific side of the basin right now that is causing some sfc melt, but cooler conditions are forecasted to sweep in over the next few days. There's signs of a weak dipole trying to develop later next week, but you'd like to see it more pronounced to really get the momentum going after a slow start.

 

 That puts 2023 +160k vs the average of 2007-2022 and 6th highest of the last 17 years as of June 15th.

[ORH_wxman]

Update: 

On 6/16, NSIDC SIA stood at 8.85 million sq km. This was actually a slight increase from 6/15 as the slow June continues. 
 

Here’s how other years compared on the same date: 

2022: -200k

2021: -520k

2020: -610k

2019: -720k

2018: -150k

2017: -80k

2016: -530k

2015: -270k

2014: -50k

2013: -90k

2012: -1.0 million (-1000k)

2011: -530k

2010: -390k

2009: +470k

2008: -20k

2007: -370k

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Update: 

On 6/16, NSIDC SIA stood at 8.85 million sq km. This was actually a slight increase from 6/15 as the slow June continues. 
 

Here’s how other years compared on the same date: 

2022: -200k

2021: -520k

2020: -610k

2019: -720k

2018: -150k

2017: -80k

2016: -530k

2015: -270k

2014: -50k

2013: -90k

2012: -1.0 million (-1000k)

2011: -530k

2010: -390k

2009: +470k

2008: -20k

2007: -370k

 With that slight increase today, 2023 improved significantly since yesterday vs the average of 2007-2022. It went from +160k yesterday to +320k today. It moved from 6th highest to 2nd highest of the last 17 years.

[Typhoon Tip]

It seems we should all be more concerned with this …

Sea ice extent in Antarctica drops to record lows in 2023

Area of the ocean with at least 15% sea ice by year, 1981-2023

Source: National Snow & Ice Data CenterGraphic: Parker Leipzig, CNN

 

[FPizz]

11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It seems we should all be more concerned with this …

Sea ice extent in Antarctica drops to record lows in 2023

Area of the ocean with at least 15% sea ice by year, 1981-2023

Source: National Snow & Ice Data CenterGraphic: Parker Leipzig, CNN

 

Start a thread.  This is for Arctic.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Start a thread.  This is for Arctic.  

Define the purpose of monitoring "just the arctic" when the "spirit" of doing so is for on-going climate monitoring. 

This is a Global problem - it should all be contained.

[bdgwx]

Several months back I suggested that if the shenanigans kept up in the Antarctic then perhaps it might be time for a dedicated thread. The data collected by the IPCC suggested that sea ice extents may increase through 2030 at the very least. Yet here we are with record lows. Perhaps the time for a dedicated thread as come.