Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[ORH_wxman]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Hmmm, I must have done something wrong considering how knowledgeable and experienced you are on this, but I can't figure it out yet after looking at it again carefully. Am I doing an apples to oranges comparison? I thought you were looking at "Arctic sea ice area" in sq km. Is the source I used not looking at the same thing? Does it use a different method to measure area? Fwiw, its graph (see below) shows 2009, 2010, 2013 (highest since 2007 with 4.6 msk), 2014, and 2021 all above 4 million square km. It even says this about 2021: "In 2021, the Arctic minimum sea ice covered an area of 4.13 million square kilometers (1.6 million square miles)."

 Would you please provide a link to your source for annual Arctic minimum area as well as how current sea ice area compares to prior years for the same date?

 What do you have for 2012's minimum? This has ~2.9 million sq km:

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5002
 

I’m not sure how they are getting that data. Only issue I see is that graph is from NASA and not NSIDC….so maybe they are using a different algorithm. 
 

Here’s a dataset of NSIDC extent and area but it stops in late 2021….

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxhcmN0aXNjaGVwaW5ndWlufGd4OjU1OGIwZWI0NGI2ZDI5YTM

 

I’ve been using the below site for in-season area updates in 2022

https://cryospherecomputing.com
 

NSIDC has the area available somewhere on their site but it’s hard to find. The top of the first link’s data source explanation might be able to get us there but I haven’t taken the time to try and build my own spreadsheet yet based off it. 

 

[GaWx]

 

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not sure how they are getting that data. Only issue I see is that graph is from NASA and not NSIDC….so maybe they are using a different algorithm. 
 

Here’s a dataset of NSIDC extent and area but it stops in late 2021….

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxhcmN0aXNjaGVwaW5ndWlufGd4OjU1OGIwZWI0NGI2ZDI5YTM

 

I’ve been using the below site for in-season area updates in 2022

https://cryospherecomputing.com
 

NSIDC has the area available somewhere on their site but it’s hard to find. The top of the first link’s data source explanation might be able to get us there but I haven’t taken the time to try and build my own spreadsheet yet based off it. 

 

Thanks for those links. From your 2nd link, I found this interesting graph of Arctic 2m temps N of 80N by decade:

1. Temps warm as one would expect due to GW from the 1960s (dark blue) to the 2010s (red) September-April with the winter having the most intense warming, especially JF.

2. I estimate JF to be a whopping 7C (13F) warmer in the 2010s vs the 1960s (-24C vs -31C).

3. It appears to still be warming steadily Sept-April. In JF, the 2010s are 3C (5F) warmer than the 2000s (-24C vs -27C).

4. The summers, which have much smaller variance (so one will need to look carefully to see this), have oddly enough done the reverse with the 1960s the warmest and the 2010s the coldest for late May through mid-August with the 2010s ~1 F colder than the 1960s. Does less sea ice mean slightly colder in summer? If so, why? 

 

Edit: I found this: "When ice melts or water evaporates, energy must be taken from the environment in order for the ice or liquid to move to a less ordered state. Energy is needed to weaken the individual hydrogen bonds between H20 molecules. When water (in any of the three phrases) moves from a higher to a lower ordered state, the air surrounding the H20 will have heat subtracted from it. The three processes that subtract heat from the surrounding air are evaporation, melting and sublimation (solid to gas)."

https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/19/

So, is it because the summers have had increased amounts of melting which then cools the surrounding air more than if there were less melting??

 

5. 2022 has been relatively cold since late April on most days after a relatively very warm winter as has been noted ITT. The summer of 2022 has averaged nearly 1C/2F colder than the 1960s. Perhaps that has been helping to slow the melt?

 

 

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, Weatherdude88 said:

Some of the climate models do have a negative feedback showing Northern Greenland and areas of high latitude getting colder with climate change.
 

Thank you for the detailed reply. I'll need to think through that some more to make sure I understand it.

 Regarding the line that I quoted from you, would that negative feedback (colder higher latitudes with climate change) eventually result in cooling the lower latitudes back down or at least slow or even stop the warming there? In other words, is GW self-limiting/does it have a ceiling because of this? If so, where is that ceiling?

 

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thank you for the detailed reply. I'll need to think through that some more to make sure I understand it.

 Regarding the line that I quoted from you, would that negative feedback (colder higher latitudes with climate change) eventually result in cooling the lower latitudes back down or at least slow or even stop the warming there? In other words, is GW self-limiting/does it have a ceiling because of this? If so, where is that ceiling?

 

The climate models predict a local cooling effect near Northern Greenland and the Central Arctic during summers later in the century. This may be related to a weakening AMOC. But the Northern Hemisphere land masses continue to warm. The provided link below has a very interesting recorded presentation on the topic. So the Arctic may still have some summer sea ice north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago later this century. 

https://ams.confex.com/ams/94Annual/webprogram/Paper235210.html

https://ams.confex.com/ams/94Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/25848?recordingid=25848

Tuesday, 4 February 2014: 11:30 AM

Room C101 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

Stephen J. Vavrus, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Francis

Recorded Presentation

 

Climate models typically simulate enhanced heating and pronounced drying during summer over mid-latitude continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere under greenhouse forcing. Various plausible explanations have been offered for this response, including strengthened land-sea temperature contrasts, favorable SST patterns, and locally depleted soil moisture. Changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation have also been proposed, but these have generally been regarded as secondary mechanisms originating in low and middle latitudes. 

Here we present an alternative perspective, by proposing that a major reason for the mid-latitude continental response is an atmospheric circulation change that is regulated by high-latitude processes. Based on an analysis of the RCP8.5 scenario in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), we find that the amplified heating ( > 7 K) and drying ( > 20%) of the U. S. Great Plains during summer stems from a shift toward locally weakened westerlies aloft and somewhat stronger northerlies. This circulation change is directly tied to enhanced ridging to the north of the region that is part of a nearly hemispheric-wide band of ridging in high latitudes extending from Eurasia across North America. This band of maximum geopotential height increases aloft is well correlated with the location of greatest summertime snow cover loss in northern Siberia and North America. The circulation pattern appears to be further modulated in high latitudes by residual sea ice coverage around the Canadian Archipelago and by a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Both of these changes promote troughing locally around northeastern Canada and thus a southward displacement over North America of the high-latitude ridging band to a location where its outflow favors drier and hotter conditions in the continental interior. The resulting circulation shift affects not only the mean summertime climate but also sets up very suitable synoptic conditions for extreme weather events in the form of droughts and heat waves.

 

[GaWx]

 For the first day in over two months, the averaged Arctic 2m temperature north of 80N (red line) on July 16th went (barely) warmer than the 1958-2002 average (green line). It is ~35 F after being barely above 32 F on July 4th. The average between those two dates only barely rises. This is only one factor of many but it will be interesting to see if melting has started to turn around and increase vs the 2007-2021 average melt over the last few days since the last ORH update, which was done as of July 12th:

melt 

[bluewave]

DMI has a nice discussion about the summer Arctic temperatures near the North Pole since 2002.

https://skepticalscience.com/DMI-data-on-Arctic-temperatures-Intermediate.html

it seems that a cooling temperature trend in the Arctic summer is present, throughout the past approximately 10 years. Where 'summer' is defined as the period where the +80N mean temperature is above 273K. However, I very much doubt that a simple conclusion can be drawn from that, as there are complicating aspects to that analysis, e.g.: 1) The surface in the +80N area is more or less fully snow and ice covered all year, so the temperature is strongly controlled by the melting temperature of the surface. I.e. the +80N temperature is bound to be very close to the melt point of the surface snow and ice (273K) and the variability is therefore very small, less than 0.5K. I am sure you will find a much clearer warming trend in the same analysis applied to the winter period. The winter period is more crucial for the state of the Arctic sea ice, as this is the period where the ice is produced and the colder the winter the thicker and more robust the sea ice will become. 2) The +80N temperature data after 2002 are based on the operational global deterministic models at ECMWF, at any given time. Before 2002 the ERA 40 reanalysis is used. I.e. the +80N temperatures are based on 4 different models, the model used for the ERA 40 data set and the operational models T511, T799 and T1279. The point is that there can be a temperature bias in one or more of the models, that can cause the lower temperature level since approximately 2002.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php

 

[GaWx]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

DMI has a nice discussion about the summer Arctic temperatures near the North Pole since 2002.

https://skepticalscience.com/DMI-data-on-Arctic-temperatures-Intermediate.html

it seems that a cooling temperature trend in the Arctic summer is present, throughout the past approximately 10 years. Where 'summer' is defined as the period where the +80N mean temperature is above 273K. However, I very much doubt that a simple conclusion can be drawn from that, as there are complicating aspects to that analysis, e.g.: 1) The surface in the +80N area is more or less fully snow and ice covered all year, so the temperature is strongly controlled by the melting temperature of the surface. I.e. the +80N temperature is bound to be very close to the melt point of the surface snow and ice (273K) and the variability is therefore very small, less than 0.5K. I am sure you will find a much clearer warming trend in the same analysis applied to the winter period. The winter period is more crucial for the state of the Arctic sea ice, as this is the period where the ice is produced and the colder the winter the thicker and more robust the sea ice will become. 2) The +80N temperature data after 2002 are based on the operational global deterministic models at ECMWF, at any given time. Before 2002 the ERA 40 reanalysis is used. I.e. the +80N temperatures are based on 4 different models, the model used for the ERA 40 data set and the operational models T511, T799 and T1279. The point is that there can be a temperature bias in one or more of the models, that can cause the lower temperature level since approximately 2002.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php

 

 Thanks for posting. Indeed, this graph clearly shows what I had posted about regarding the slight cooling in summer despite strong warming Sept-April, with strongest warming Jan-Feb.

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

On 7/16, NSIDC SIA was at 5.84 million sq km. Here’s how other years looked on the same date compared to 2022:

2021: -290k

2020: -720k

2019: -840k

2018: -50k

2017: -200k

2016: -520k

2015: -240k

2014: -60k

2013: -230k

2012: -900k

2011: -360k

2010: -270k

2009: +70k

2008: +190k

2007: -590k

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'll have to find it.. but I recently read a summarized paper that gave the watered -down version (n'yuk n'yuk) of a why there is a "bounce" mechanism in the arctic wrt to sea ice, that is caused by accelerating periods of ice out. 

The arctic is warming faster in CC as of last check, than any other planetary domain space.  Concomitant with that ...we've seen dramatic recession in integrated ice so far this century.  Clearly ... that should represent an "accelarated" geologic period. 

I wonder whether any currently observed "slowing" and/or modest date-relative gains, may be related to those studies' causalities.  

It also seems intuitive given all the complexity in the moving parts of the total planetary system, that deltas would tend to be polynomial - there would likely be irregularities ('serrate') along numerical curves.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks for posting. Indeed, this graph clearly shows what I had posted about regarding the slight cooling in summer despite strong warming Sept-April, with strongest warming Jan-Feb.

There was also another recent paper published on the seasonality of Arctic warming. 
 

 

[so_whats_happening]

It looks like we have gone into full on step function mode via the volume chart. Next leg down mid 2020's with the looming El Nino?

[bluewave]

This July is continuing the pattern since 2013 of much lower Arctic summer 500 mb heights than the record 2007-2012 dipole era. The unusually cold conditions with low pressure near the North Pole earlier this month shifted over closer to Alaska this week.  The trough has set a new record low 500mb height for July in this area. This has resulted in a slowing of the extent decline rates near the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

In terms of air temperature, the first half of July 2022 was a tale of regional contrasts (Figure 2a). On the Eurasian side of the Arctic, particularly in the Laptev and Barents Seas, extending toward the North Pole, air temperatures at the 925 mb level (about 2,500 feet about the surface) were 3 to 6 degrees Celsius (5 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) below average. On the North American side of the Arctic, air temperatures were as much as 8 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, notably in the southeast Beaufort Sea and the western Canadian Arctic  Archipelago. The sea level pressure pattern was dominated by low pressure over the Laptev Sea sector, centered near the North Pole (Figure 2b).

 

 

 

Why has no new record-minimum Arctic sea-ice extent occurred since September 2012?

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc047

One of the clearest indicators of human-caused climate change is the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice. The summer minimum coverage is now approximately half of its extent only 40 yr ago. Four records in the minimum extent were broken since 2000, the most recent occurring in September 2012. No new records have been set since then, however, owing to an abrupt atmospheric shift during each August/early-September that brought low sea-level pressure, cloudiness, and unfavorable wind conditions for ice reduction. While random variability could be the cause, we identify a recently increased prevalence of a characteristic large-scale atmospheric pattern over the northern hemisphere. This pattern is associated not only with anomalously low pressure over the Arctic during summer, but also with frequent heatwaves over East Asia, Scandinavia, and northern North America, as well as the tendency for a split jet stream over the continents. This jet-stream configuration has been identified as favoring extreme summer weather events in northern mid-latitudes. We propose a mechanism linking these features with diminishing spring snow cover on northern-hemisphere continents that acts as a negative feedback on the loss of Arctic sea ice during summer.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 7/16/2022 at 9:14 PM, GaWx said:

 For the first day in over two months, the averaged Arctic 2m temperature north of 80N (red line) on July 16th went (barely) warmer than the 1958-2002 average (green line). It is ~35 F after being barely above 32 F on July 4th. The average between those two dates only barely rises. This is only one factor of many but it will be interesting to see if melting has started to turn around and increase vs the 2007-2021 average melt over the last few days since the last ORH update, which was done as of July 12th:

melt 

Pure conjecture...  but, that may presage a more substantial melting interval of open ended length - tbd.

If we look back along CPC's monitoring and prognostic AO curve,

We see that since April 10 ( which is the 100 day since Jan 1st along the curve above, a time in which the monitored 2-m T first biased negative...), also began the time in which the Arctic Oscillation became positive as the dominating signal. There were some negative intervals along the last 3 months since that time... yes, but they were not 'long enough' and probably were more reflective of interludes of terminating warm advection to higher latitudes that were not representative of forcing the longer term mean.   Which was positive in two distinct, longer intervals:  May 1 to ~June 20..then again ~June 10 to very recently... 

Note, +AO is correlated to lower 2-m temperatures with the domain. 

From these observations and then considering the prognosis for modest negative index, the end of which is unclear as it only near neutral ( abv) by D10, and then seeing the 2-m turn warm, it is not a bad immediate notion that a warm flux may be about to occur.

I also would note that ... 2019's big heat even in the NW of Europe preceded a big transport of usual warmth and an enhance melt event struck Greenland.  So the idea of preceding warm terminating patterns into high latitudes sort of adds to this assertion.  We don't see the present NAO progs as 'tanking' like they did prior to the 2019's heat delivery ...so this heat event may not be destined the same way, either.    

It'll be interesting to see what takes place over the next 3 weeks.

[GaWx]

On 7/17/2022 at 1:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

On 7/16, NSIDC SIA was at 5.84 million sq km. Here’s how other years looked on the same date compared to 2022:

2021: -290k

2020: -720k

2019: -840k

2018: -50k

2017: -200k

2016: -520k

2015: -240k

2014: -60k

2013: -230k

2012: -900k

2011: -360k

2010: -270k

2009: +70k

2008: +190k

2007: -590k

 

 Following the big gains vs the average of 2007-2021 from 6/29/22 through 7/12/22, there was a small drop vs that 15 year period mean between 7/12/22 and 7/16/22:

Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of:

6/15/22: +70K

6/16/22: +120K

6/20/22: +240K

6/22/22: +140K

6/29/22: -140K

7/1/22:     +70K

7/10/22:  +250K

7/12/22:  +370K

7/16/22:  +330K

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

On 7/20, NSIDC SIA stood at 5.52 million sq km. Here's how other years stood at the same point compared to 2022:

2021: -280k

2020: -850k

2019: -880k

2018: -180k

2017: -380k

2016: -480k

2015: -290k

2014: -100k

2013: -220k

2012: -910k

2011: -590k

2010: -110k

2009: +120k

2008: +220k

2007: -500k

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

On 7/20, NSIDC SIA stood at 5.52 million sq km. Here's how other years stood at the same point compared to 2022:

2021: -280k

2020: -850k

2019: -880k

2018: -180k

2017: -380k

2016: -480k

2015: -290k

2014: -100k

2013: -220k

2012: -910k

2011: -590k

2010: -110k

2009: +120k

2008: +220k

2007: -500k

 

 Based on this, there was a small gain vs the 2007-2021 area mean between 7/16/22 and 7/20/22:

Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of:

6/15/22: +70K

6/16/22: +120K

6/20/22: +240K

6/22/22: +140K

6/29/22: -140K

7/1/22:     +70K

7/10/22:  +250K

7/12/22:  +370K

7/16/22:  +330K

7/20/22:  +360K

[ORH_wxman]

47 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 Based on this, there was a small gain vs the 2007-2021 area mean between 7/16/22 and 7/20/22:

Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of:

6/15/22: +70K

6/16/22: +120K

6/20/22: +240K

6/22/22: +140K

6/29/22: -140K

7/1/22:     +70K

7/10/22:  +250K

7/12/22:  +370K

7/16/22:  +330K

7/20/22:  +360K

Large part of the ice pack has fresh snow cover on it from the cold cyclone last week. It's definitely help put the breaks on the area loss since the 2nd week of July.

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

NSIDC SIA was 5.40 million sq km on 7/23. Here’s where previous years since 2007 compared on the same date:

2021: -340k

2020: 1.01 million (-1010k)

2019: -840k

2018: -370k

2017: -450k

2016: -600k

2015: -400k

2014: -90k

2013: -460k

2012: -890k

2011: -800k

2010: -310k

2009: +10k

2008: +40k

2007: -640k

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

NSIDC SIA was 5.40 million sq km on 7/23. Here’s where previous years since 2007 compared on the same date:

2021: -340k

2020: 1.01 million (-1010k)

2019: -840k

2018: -370k

2017: -450k

2016: -600k

2015: -400k

2014: -90k

2013: -460k

2012: -890k

2011: -800k

2010: -310k

2009: +10k

2008: +40k

2007: -640k

 This means that 2022 vs the 2007-21 average has risen significantly over the last three days. So, as of 7/23, 2022 is now up to +480K  vs the 2007-21 average compared to the +360K as of 7/20. This increasing trend vs those years has been going on for practically the entire July:

Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of:

6/15/22: +70K

6/16/22: +120K

6/20/22: +240K

6/22/22: +140K

6/29/22: -140K

7/1/22:     +70K

7/10/22:  +250K

7/12/22:  +370K

7/16/22:  +330K

7/20/22:  +360K

7/23/22:  +480K

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

On 7/26, NSIDC SIA was 5.25 million sq km. Here’s how other post-2007 years compared on the same date:

2021: -250k

2020: -1.06 million (-1060k)

2019: -860k

2018: -350k

2017: -420k

2016: -640k

2015: -540k

2014:  tied

2013: -310k

2012: -880k

2011: -690k

2010: -460k

2009: +140k

2008: +100k

2007: -710k

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

On 7/26, NSIDC SIA was 5.25 million sq km. Here’s how other post-2007 years compared on the same date:

2021: -250k

2020: -1.06 million (-1060k)

2019: -860k

2018: -350k

2017: -420k

2016: -640k

2015: -540k

2014:  tied

2013: -310k

2012: -880k

2011: -690k

2010: -460k

2009: +140k

2008: +100k

2007: -710k

  Based on this, the last 3 days have had a very small drop in area vs the 2007-21 average area from +480K to +460K. Average actual drop in area per day in July of 2022 so far has been ~70K. Here is the updated summary:

Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of:

6/15/22: +70K

6/16/22: +120K

6/20/22: +240K

6/22/22: +140K

6/29/22: -140K

7/1/22:     +70K

7/10/22:  +250K

7/12/22:  +370K

7/16/22:  +330K

7/20/22:  +360K

7/23/22:  +480K

7/26/22:  +460K

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

On 7/30, NSIDC SIA was 4.91 million sq km. Here’s how other years compared on the same date to 2022:

2021: -160k

2020: -1.16 million (-1160k)

2019: -810k

2018: -220k

2017: -230k

2016: -720k

2015: -570k

2014: +170k

2013: -50k

2012: -980k

2011: -690k

2010: -470k

2009: +50k

2008: +20k

2007: -590k

 

[bluewave]

Extent is running on the higher side for the end of July since the September record minimum in 2012. The current extent is close to 2013 and 2014. The model forecast for the September minimum will update in early August. If the slower pace of melt counties, then we may be able to finish closer to 5 million sq km like last year.

7-30 sea ice extents since 2012

2022….7.063

2021…..6.595

2020….6.075

2019…..6.187

2018…..6.711

2017…..6.693

2016….6.773

2015….6.895

2014….7.055

2013….7.029

2012…6.400

 

September average extent since 2012

 

2021……4.92

2020……3.92

2019……4.32

2018…...4.71

2017……4.87

2016……4.72

2015…..4.63

2014…..5.28

2013…..5.35

2012…..3.60

 

 

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

On 7/30, NSIDC SIA was 4.91 million sq km. Here’s how other years compared on the same date to 2022:

2021: -160k

2020: -1.16 million (-1160k)

2019: -810k

2018: -220k

2017: -230k

2016: -720k

2015: -570k

2014: +170k

2013: -50k

2012: -980k

2011: -690k

2010: -470k

2009: +50k

2008: +20k

2007: -590k

 

 This latest area update brings down 2022 slightly again vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +440K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +460K as of four days ago.
 

Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of:

6/15/22: +70K

6/16/22: +120K

6/20/22: +240K

6/22/22: +140K

6/29/22: -140K

7/1/22:     +70K

7/10/22:  +250K

7/12/22:  +370K

7/16/22:  +330K

7/20/22:  +360K

7/23/22:  +480K

7/26/22:  +460K

7/30/22:  +440K

 

[bluewave]

August is starting out with the highest extent since 2014.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

 

On 8/7, NSIDC SIA was at 4.32 million sq km. Here is how other post-2007 years compared on the same date:

2021: -220k

2020: -840k

2019 -790k

2018: -10k

2017: -290k

2016: -660k

2015: -470k

2014: +380k

2013: +240k

2012: -1.14 million (-1140k)

2011: -570k

2010: -120k

2009: +200k

2008: -120k

2007: -440k

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

 

On 8/7, NSIDC SIA was at 4.32 million sq km. Here is how other post-2007 years compared on the same date:

2021: -220k

2020: -840k

2019 -790k

2018: -10k

2017: -290k

2016: -660k

2015: -470k

2014: +380k

2013: +240k

2012: -1.14 million (-1140k)

2011: -570k

2010: -120k

2009: +200k

2008: -120k

2007: -440k

 This latest area update brings down 2022 a rather significant amount vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +320K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +440K as of eight days ago.
 

Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of:

6/15/22: +70K

6/16/22: +120K

6/20/22: +240K

6/22/22: +140K

6/29/22: -140K

7/1/22:     +70K

7/10/22:  +250K

7/12/22:  +370K

7/16/22:  +330K

7/20/22:  +360K

7/23/22:  +480K

7/26/22:  +460K

7/30/22:  +440K

8/7/22:    +320K

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 This latest area update brings down 2022 a rather significant amount vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +320K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +440K as of eight days ago.
 

Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of:

6/15/22: +70K

6/16/22: +120K

6/20/22: +240K

6/22/22: +140K

6/29/22: -140K

7/1/22:     +70K

7/10/22:  +250K

7/12/22:  +370K

7/16/22:  +330K

7/20/22:  +360K

7/23/22:  +480K

7/26/22:  +460K

7/30/22:  +440K

8/7/22:    +320K

It makes sense that we're coming back to the pack a little bit since the mean minimum area since 2007 has been 3.03 million sq km (median 3.07 million sqkm)....and we've only had 3 seasons above 3.5 million sq km since 2007....those being 2009, 2013, and 2014.

In fact, those are the only 3 post-2007 seasons with a minimum over 3.25 million sq km. The next closest was 2018 at 3.23 million sq km.

[ORH_wxman]

Here's the post-2007 NSIDC area minimums:
 

2007	2.954993
2008	3.079552
2009	3.547109
2010	3.072129
2011	2.916451
2012	2.228429
2013	3.607877
2014	3.576643
2015	3.139137
2016	2.463209
2017	3.000742
2018	3.235357
2019	2.871403
2020	2.5859
2021	3.1658

 

[bluewave]

The statistical sea ice forecast just raised its average extent closer to 5 million sq for September. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/3/waf-d-19-0107.1.xml