LibertyBell Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: We may have reached the area minimum on 9/1....we're currently about 75k above the 9/1 value of 3.19 million sq km. Still a bit too precarious to call it, but if we had a 9/1 area min, that would be the earliest min since 1992. weird we've had minimums on 9/1 before but haven't had one in August before in recorded history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Wow, I thought you were quoting an article like what Chris (Bluewave) did, but as I was reading this I realized you wrote this yourself! I totally vibe with the part about Stage 1 and civilizations below that, my contention has always been that the Greatest of Filters lies ahead of us and that's the real reason we haven't discovered any other technological species out there in space (granted our range of detection is very limited.) And a supernova within 100 light years wouldn't even be needed to cause the ultimate "climate change" event, you could have an intense gamma ray burst pointed in just the "right" (meaning wrong) direction from a longer distance to do the trick. It's been considered as a vector for some of our mass extinction events. The current one is, of course, entirely caused by humanity and is happening much faster than any of the so-called "natural" ones, just like climate change. The idea here is, whether by our means or theirs, Stage 0 to early Stage 1 civilizations, usually don't manipulate for the better - they tend to blow them selves to kingdom-come before they become apart of any bustling interstellar thoroughfare Sci-Fi fantasy like that of Star Trek. . Also vibe with the idea that change will happen, we only have the choice of either doing it voluntarily and more gently, or nature will cause the change for us and establish equilibrium in its own harsh way. Either way, one way or the other, the necessary change WILL occur. Gaia, the concept of the planet self regulating, is a proven fact. However its self regulation would be a lot worse for humanity than the changes we can and should be making. I almost consider the climate change crisis as a failure of National and Global Security ... It is becoming clear, there is going to be a huge population correction, either by choice ... or force ( it's like "Gaia" is giving Humanity a choice like "Gozer" in Ghost Busters: "Choose .. Choose the form of the destructor") ... But, humor and metaphor aside, the lack of vision of Nat/Global security et al, in taking the subject seriously decades ago - it's hard to know where the origin of that incredulity was. But, you better believe, Climate Change IS not only a National Security matter at this point, it is in fact a World order event. Yeah.... sorry - it's probably no revelation that I like to write. Lol.. didn't mean to sermon. It may seem bunnish but I do think a population correction is coming. You know, if it's not one way ...it'll be the other. I like the Gaia-Gozer thing.. cool But, for one obvious trite reason, 'nothing last forever in a universe that is ultimately bounded by finality' ...Obviously, it's a matter of 'when' and for what reason - to aspects that are entirely subjective in relationship. Heh. I actually am a published Sci Fi author as of 1 year ago. So glazing eyes over and giving people headaches is something I have a keen skill - haha. Anyway, that right up started a simple reply to someone else over the state of the Arctic - as it pertains to the sea ice and so forth. 90% of it, and this exchange since, probably should be in that "Thoughts on ..." thread instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah.... sorry - it's probably no revelation that I like to write. Lol.. didn't mean to sermon. It may seem bunnish but I do think a population correction is coming. You know, if it's not one way ...it'll be the other. For one obvious trite reason, 'nothing last forever in a universe that is defined by finality' ...Obviously, it's a matter of 'when' and for what reason - to aspects that are entirely subjective in relationship. Heh. I actually am a published Sci Fi author as of 1 year ago. So glazing eyes over and giving people headaches is something I have a keen skill - haha Congratulations on your being published. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Congratulations on your being published. thanks Don - I'm grateful for it, but honestly? sometimes I wonder. If one can string together lengthier than a "twit's" coherent sentences ... one has a decent shot. "In the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is surely king" Add stupefying of society into e-zombies to the example-list of innovation leading inexorably to it's own extinction. Maybe that's more like "irony" than c-22. Convenience addled nimrods masquerading as real intelligence, gray matter isn't myelinating new neuro pathways like it once needed to, when people had to use their brains and language to survive. 'Course, ...I'm being a little hyperbolic at the moment - haha 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 2 hours ago, etudiant said: I find it surprising that there is no discussion of the thinking behind the massive ongoing investments in coal based power generation in Asia. Sec. Kerry attempted to engage China on this issue and was promptly rebuffed, essentially told that China would be willing to talk to the US about this if the US made concessions elsewhere. Obviously that means China does not take the threat seriously, even though global warming would surely hurt China and India more than countries in colder latitudes. Can anyone shed light on this? Interesting... I mean I don't disagree here in general re the odd directive and the questions it arises. I don't know if these are evidences that they're not taking it seriously ... as much as they are either: A, they simply don't care what that means ( and there are discrete reasons for this plausibility) for the future. B, they have some non-disclosed reclamation technology that they are using (or soon intend to) in concert, that will greatly reduce the CO2 ... CO emissions; maybe they are just not telling the world ( and there are reason(s) to see that as plausible, too ) they are developing(ed). B is a bit of stretch ..but not impossible. It is within technological grasp to scrub exhaust. It's just that we are not used ( lol, perhaps ) to such notions in our western-based economies. It only seems insurmountable. Common narrative has truth, "obsticular" interests with lots of power block both .. usually in insidious indirect influences ... We sort of see it out here ( waving hands..) but is an illusion of infeasibility that is institutionally just accepted. In fact, no fossil combustion is ultimately necessary. 0. But if we must ... we can't be limited in how to do so while minimizing the risks. It's really... you know, morality and innovation did not evolve with the other in mind. Broad brushed statement but it's true. Put another way, our species has mechanized nature using the immense energy stored in fossil fuels, by wit of the most power biological invention this world has ever evolved: the human brain. ... But that's ALL we did - It seems now here at the threshold of hell-to-pay, innovation has to do its bidding or [ enter mushroom cloud ]. They could be ahead of tech curve/that realization and we just don't know it. A is troubling.. .They don't have the best track record in human rights/ interests... They seem to value life in a different way - almost like army ants creating drowning bridges so that the other million solders can cross a flooded stream or obstacle. Not exactly, but metaphors seldom are. They are also more clearly and evidentiary quite insular when it comes to philosophies, and I don't believe they have much compunctions in diplomacy when it comes to feeding foreign legions precisely what those reps need to hear to stave off reproach. Meanwhile, they are building islands in strategic shipping routes of seas and launching projectiles ... high tech style ( 2017 ) at one of their own defunct satellites, successfully obliterating them into orbiting shrapnel plumes for the world to see ... It's not impugning the practice, per se - we do it. We don't ask. But demonstration is always a very affecting means to deliver a message when it comes to international brinkmanship. I just almost think they are preparing sometimes, just in case, for if/when the wave the 'population correction' so to speak comes, whether in a single cataclysm, or a cocktail of events that forces the hand of Humanity. They are the ultimate "Doom's Day Preppers" And when it all shakes out, they will be self contained, militarily saddled with the wherewithal to keep it that way, until the death settles it all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah.... sorry - it's probably no revelation that I like to write. Lol.. didn't mean to sermon. It may seem bunnish but I do think a population correction is coming. You know, if it's not one way ...it'll be the other. I like the Gaia-Gozer thing.. cool But, for one obvious trite reason, 'nothing last forever in a universe that is ultimately bounded by finality' ...Obviously, it's a matter of 'when' and for what reason - to aspects that are entirely subjective in relationship. Heh. I actually am a published Sci Fi author as of 1 year ago. So glazing eyes over and giving people headaches is something I have a keen skill - haha. Anyway, that right up started a simple reply to someone else over the state of the Arctic - as it pertains to the sea ice and so forth. 90% of it, and this exchange since, probably should be in that "Thoughts on ..." thread instead. I've had these ideas since I was 14. Humanity is completely unsustainable and some of these cherished "so called" freedoms we have, well if it's a matter of survival and for the benefit of the planet, I am going to pick the latter every time. Human beings are no different from any other life form on the planet, when they go out of balance they get corrected too. I love reading and writing sci fi also, and it's interesting how many scientific ideas first came from sci fi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: thanks Don - I'm grateful for it, but honestly? sometimes I wonder. If one can string together lengthier than a "twit's" coherent sentences ... one has a decent shot. "In the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is surely king" Add stupefying of society into e-zombies to the example-list of innovation leading inexorably to it's own extinction. Maybe that's more like "irony" than c-22. Convenience addled nimrods masquerading as real intelligence, gray matter isn't myelinating new neuro pathways like it once needed to, when people had to use their brains and language to survive. 'Course, ...I'm being a little hyperbolic at the moment - haha I've read that human intelligence peaked about 5,000 years ago when the Ancient Greeks and Ancient Egyptians were at their peak. Monotheistic religions had a dulling cult-like effect on the human brain (some of these polytheistic cults were no better of course.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Interesting... I mean I don't disagree here in general re the odd directive and the questions it arises. I don't know if these are evidences that they're not taking it seriously ... as much as they are either: A, they simply don't care what that means ( and there are discrete reasons for this plausibility) for the future. B, they have some non-disclosed reclamation technology that they are using (or soon intend to) in concert, that will greatly reduce the CO2 ... CO emissions; maybe they are just not telling the world ( and there are reason(s) to see that as plausible, too ) they are developing(ed). B is a bit of stretch ..but not impossible. It is within technological grasp to scrub exhaust. It's just that we are not used ( lol, perhaps ) to such notions in our western-based economies. It only seems insurmountable. Common narrative has truth, "obsticular" interests with lots of power block both .. usually in insidious indirect influences ... We sort of see it out here ( waving hands..) as an illusion of infeasibility. It's really... you know, morality and innovation did not evolve with the other in mind. Broad brushed statement but it's true. Put another way, our species has mechanized nature using the immense energy stored in fossil fuels, by wit of the most power biological invention this world has ever evolved: the human brain. ... But that's ALL we did - It seems now here at the threshold of hell-to-pay, innovation has to do its bidding or [ enter mushroom cloud ]. They could be ahead of tech curve/that realization and we just don't know it. A is troubling.. .They don't have the best track record in human rights/ interests... They seem to value life in a different way - almost like army ants creating drowning bridges so that the other million solders can cross a flood stream or obstacle. Not exactly, but metaphors seldom are. They are also more clearly and evidentiary quite insular when it comes to philosophies, and I don't believe they have much compunctions in diplomacy when it comes to feeding foreign legions precisely what those reps need to hear to stave off reproach. Meanwhile, they are building islands in strategic shipping routes of seas and launching projectiles ... high tech style ( 2017 ) at one of their own defunct satellites, successfully obliterating them into orbiting shrapnel plumes for the world to see ... It's not impugning the practice, per se - we do it. We don't ask. But demonstration is always a very affecting means to deliver a message when it comes to international brinkmanship. I just almost think they are preparing sometimes, just in case, for is/when the wave the 'population correction' so to speak comes, whether in a single cataclysm, a cocktail of events the force the hand of Humanity. They are the ultimate "Doom's Day Preppers" And when it all shakes out, they will be self contained, militarily saddled with the wherewithal to keep it that way, until the death settles it all. Those who understand how debt works will get this immediately.....with its current population, humanity is consuming the resources of 1.7 earths in terms of how much resources we would need in order to balance out what we are taking away. It was during the early 70s that we exceeded the 1.0 earth limit and went out of balance with what our environment can provide us with vs what we are putting back into the environment (like planting trees for example.) This 1.7 earth number is only getting larger and the more industrialized the developing world becomes, the faster this number will go up. In addition to quickly depleting natural resources we are causing the sixth mass extinction in the planet's history (which may one day include us heh- an interesting paradox, rapidly growing population leading to a mass extinction event, but it makes sense, too much sense I'm afraid.) On top of that, this is a major driver of the number one cause of shorter life expectancy......air pollution! Air pollution shortens life span by an average of 2 years, just ahead of exposure to tobacco smoke (which shortens it by an average of 1.5 years.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 Hey John, ants and most other insects (including flies and bees) are highly intelligent, it's curious how much power can be packed into a tiny brain. Nature is quite wondrous. https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2015/05/15/4236373.htm Flies likely feel fear similar to the way that we do, according to a new study that opens up the possibility that flies experience other emotions too. The finding further suggests that other small creatures — from ants to spiders — may be emotional beings as well. "No one will argue with you if you claim that flies have four fundamental drives just as humans do: feeding, fighting, fleeing, and mating," says William Gibson, lead author of the study published in the journal Current Biology. "Taking the question a step further — whether flies that flee a stimulus are actually afraid of that stimulus — is much more difficult," adds Gibson, a postdoctoral fellow at Caltech. Such a 'stimulus' could be an annoyed person chasing the fly with a swatter, or even a creepy shadow that could mean a threat is imminent. Afraid of shadows The researchers used shadows to study how flies reacted to something that could be fear inducing. Gibson and his team enclosed flies in an arena where the buzzing insects were exposed repeatedly to an overhead shadow. The flies looked startled and, if flying, increased their speed. Occasionally the flies froze in place, a defensive behaviour also observed in the fear responses of rodents. The shadows even caused hungry flies to leave a food source, when that was presented during another phase of the experiment. It then took time before those same flies would return to their food, suggesting a gradual diminishment of the insects' internal, defensive state. Importantly, the more shadows the flies were exposed to, the longer it took for them to "calm down" and return to the food. In other words, when flies flee in response to a shadow, it's more than a momentary escape. It's a lasting physiological state comparable to how we experience fear. Naysayers could claim that this was all just instinctual behaviour with no real underlying depth to it. But even for humans and other higher-on-the-food chain animals, feelings fall into what the researchers call "emotion primitives." These have to do with how nerves, biochemistry and other underlying factors work. For fear, the first basic characteristic is that the fear is persistent, Gibson said. For example, if a person hears the sound of a gun, the feeling of fear that it provokes will continue for a period of time. The second characteristic is that fear is scalable - the more gunshots a person hears, the more afraid he or she will become. The third characteristic of fear, according to the researchers, is that it exists across different contexts. And fear is also "trans-situational" - once you're afraid, you're more likely to respond in fear to other triggers, such as the clang of a pan, for instance, or a loud knock at the door. Gibson and his colleagues determined that all of these applied to the flies in the study, strongly suggesting that they do indeed feel the emotion fear as we do. Other applications There's more to this research than just learning about flies, the scientists say. It's helping the scientists to understand, in a very fundamental way, what constitutes fear and other emotions in all animals, including humans. "The argument that this paper makes is that the Drosophila (a type of fly) system may be an excellent model for emotion states due to the relative simplicity of its nervous system, combined simultaneously with the behavioural complexity it exhibits," Gibson explains. Such a system may make it possible to identify new molecular players involved in the control of emotion states, he says. Those, in turn, could lead to better treatments for people suffering from nervous disorders, depression and much more. Related: Pesky flies use fighter jet manoeuvres https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2017-02-24/smart-bees-learn-how-to-use-tools-by-watching-others/8297576?section=science They may have tiny brains, but it turns out that bumblebees can not only learn to use tools by observing others, they can improvise and make the task even easier. Key points: Bees were taught how to do a task they would not normally do They were able to improve on the task after watching another bee complete it Study shows that bees have cognitive powers way beyond what we thought an insect could have We knew bees were smart, but this level of brain power has never before been seen in an insect, according to a team of UK scientists writing in the journal Science. "Our study terminates the idea that small brains constrain insects to have limited behavioural flexibility and only simple learning abilities," said Olli Loukola of Queen Mary University of London. Dr Loukola said previous research had shown that bees could solve a range of complex tasks, including categorising objects, simple spatial concepts and even counting. "But these tasks have always resembled those similar to the insect's natural foraging routines," he said. To take the bees out of their comfort zone, Dr Loukola and his colleagues designed a series of experiments where the bees were taught to move a ball to the centre of a platform, in exchange for a food reward. How to train a bee The researchers used a plastic bumblebee to show the bees what to do, until the learners successfully completed the task themselves within five minutes. But then the team went further by training bees in a set-up with three balls, where the two closest to the centre were superglued to the platform. These bees were then used as "trainers", fetching the farthest ball in a repeat of the same set-up, with an untrained bee watching. Remarkably, when those watching bees were then offered a similar scenario on their own — this time with three unglued balls to choose from — they not only succeeded, they tended to choose the closest ball to the centre, improving on the behaviour of the trainer bees. Bees that were trained by a hidden magnet or got no lesson at all, on the other hand, were much less successful. It seems that bees do their best learning — and improvising — after watching a fellow bumblebee do the job. Dr Loukola said the findings showed that the observer bees were not simply copying what they saw; they were taking it on board and improving it. "This goal-directed behaviour shows an impressive amount of cognitive flexibility, especially for an insect," he said. He said the bees' capacity to solve complex tasks could help them to survive constantly changing environments. "However, rapid climate change, habitat loss and the use of pesticides are unfortunately too much, even for the cleverest bumblebees," he said. Bumblebee loaded with pollen Bumblebees continue to surprise us with their brain power.(Wikimedia: Tony Willis) Bees smarter than we give them credit for Associate Professor Andrew Barron of Macquarie University said the study provided a "convincing argument" that bees could rapidly learn how to do something by watching others. "That's been very contentious as to whether insects can do that," said Dr Barron, who studies bee brains. He said the study demonstrated bees were a lot more behaviourally flexible and adaptable than we had given them credit for. "We are getting an increasing idea about how the structure of the bee brain works. What is continuing to surprise us, is what bees are doing with that brain," he said. "We wouldn't be surprised to see [this kind of behaviour] in something like a rat, but certainly this is the first demonstration we've got of these forms of behaviour [in insects]," he said. Dr Barron said the study also provided a different perspective on the human brain. "For me, the questions is how are they able to achieve this level of behavioural flexibility with a brain that has less than a million neurons?" "If a bee can do this kind of thing ... with a tiny brain, why is ours so massive?" https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2014/04/11/3983454.htm Pesky flies use fighter jet manoeuvres Friday, 11 April 2014Will Dunham Reuters A flying fruit fly (Drosophila hydei). The flies showed that they could roll on their sides by upwards of 90 degrees, sometimes flying almost upside down (Source: Floris van Breugel and Florian Muijres/) Related Stories Video games test bees' visual smarts, Science Online, 18 Mar 2014 Fornicating flies attract hungry bats, Science Online, 24 Jul 2012 The intricate world of flies, Science Online, 19 May 2009 What does a tiny fruit fly have in common with the world's most advanced fighter jets like the US Air Force's F-22 Raptor? More than you might think. Scientists using video cameras to track a fly's aerial manoeuvres found the insect employs astonishingly quick mid-air banked turns to evade predators much like a fighter jet executes to elude an enemy. Their study, published in the journal Science, documents aerial agility in fruit flies such as the capacity to begin to change course in less than one one-hundredth of a second. The fact that flies are airborne acrobats should not surprise anyone who has ever swung a flyswatter at one, only to watch the little insects easily escape. The researchers at the University of Washington synchronised three high-speed cameras operating at 7,500 frames a second to learn the secrets of what the flies do to make themselves so elusive. They tracked the mid-air wing and body motion of the fruit fly species Drosophila hydei, which is about the size of a sesame seed, inside a cylindrical flight chamber after the insects were shown an image that suggested an approaching predator. The flies produced impressive escape responses, almost instantaneously rolling their bodies like a military jet in a banked turn to steer away. While executing the turn, the flies showed that they could roll on their sides by upwards of 90 degrees, sometimes flying almost upside down. "They generate a rather precise banked turn, just like an aircraft pilot would, to roll the body and generate a force to take them away from the threat," says University of Washington biology Professor Michael Dickinson, who led the study. "That happens very quickly. And it's generated with remarkably subtle changes in wing motion. We were pretty astonished by how little they have to do with their wing motion to generate these very precise manoeuvres," he says. Ancient reflexes The fly flaps its wings about 200 times a second, and in almost a single wing beat can reorient its body to manoeuvre away from the threat and continue to accelerate, Florian Muijres, says another of the researchers. "I suspect that these are very ancient reflexes," Dickinson adds. "Very shortly after insects evolved flight, other insects evolved flight to eat them. Circuits for detecting predators are very, very ancient. But this one is just being implemented in a high-performance flight machine." A lot of light was needed to accommodate the cameras' extraordinarily high shutter speeds, but because a fly would be blinded by the necessary amounts of normal light, the researchers used very bright infrared lights. Like people, fruit flies do not see infrared light. "I've always been fascinated by flies. Everybody thinks that they have a simple nervous system, but I think it's exactly the opposite. They just have a really tiny one. But it's incredibly compact. They do so much with just this brain the size of a salt grain," Dickinson says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2021 Author Share Posted September 8, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: weird we've had minimums on 9/1 before but haven't had one in August before in recorded history? 1992 had one on 8/31. This is for area though...not extent. Other early area minimums: 1983 9/2 1987 9/2 1988 9/3 2000 9/3 2005 9/3 (this used to be 8/30 until a recent revision put it at 9/3) 2019 9/4 (barely beat out 8/24 which would have been an unprecedented early minimum) My guess is we sneak below the 9/1 figure in 2021....we've had a bunch of other years that had a strung-out double-dip which it looked like an initial minimum had been achieved either in very late August or the few couple days of September only to have it dip again sometime between 9/8-9/14 or something. But we'll see. Each day that it stays above the 9/1 value, the more likely it is to hold up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 8, 2021 Share Posted September 8, 2021 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 1992 had one on 8/31. This is for area though...not extent. Other early area minimums: 1983 9/2 1987 9/2 1988 9/3 2000 9/3 2005 9/3 (this used to be 8/30 until a recent revision put it at 9/3) 2019 9/4 (barely beat out 8/24 which would have been an unprecedented early minimum) My guess is we sneak below the 9/1 figure in 2021....we've had a bunch of other years that had a strung-out double-dip which it looked like an initial minimum had been achieved either in very late August or the few couple days of September only to have it dip again sometime between 9/8-9/14 or something. But we'll see. Each day that it stays above the 9/1 value, the more likely it is to hold up. Thanks Will....interesting that most of these were la ninas. To be expected of course since la ninas cool down the majority of the planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 9, 2021 Author Share Posted September 9, 2021 Area increased 45k to put us about 120k above the 9/1 min. Still too close to call the min, but another 100k or so increase over the next 3 days would probably do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 despite the good pattern ice is still below 2009, 2013, and 2014 on extent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2021 Share Posted September 9, 2021 52 minutes ago, forkyfork said: despite the good pattern ice is still below 2009, 2013, and 2014 on extent It's like sitting at 4pm on the beach in Tahiti with an umbrella drink, Four hours is a long time though, you bargain internally ...while looms the flight back to mid March back door miasma Boston mere hours away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's like sitting at 4pm on the beach in Tahiti with an umbrella drink, Four hours is a long time though, you bargain internally ...while looms the flight back to mid March back door miasma Boston mere hours away. Hey John what's your sci fi book about? Does it have potential as a series? Anything about long distance interstellar travel in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 11, 2021 Author Share Posted September 11, 2021 On 9/9/2021 at 10:27 AM, ORH_wxman said: Area increased 45k to put us about 120k above the 9/1 min. Still too close to call the min, but another 100k or so increase over the next 3 days would probably do it. We’ve increased another 70k or so since this and now we’re about 190k above the 9/1 minimum. We’re gonna need to see a big drop in the next couple days or I think we’ve reached the area minimum. We’re still losing extent right now. NSIDC is down another 40k to 4.77 million sq km. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 11, 2021 Share Posted September 11, 2021 On 9/8/2021 at 2:54 PM, LibertyBell said: Hey John, ants and most other insects (including flies and bees) are highly intelligent, it's curious how much power can be packed into a tiny brain. Nature is quite wondrous. https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2015/05/15/4236373.htm Flies likely feel fear similar to the way that we do, according to a new study that opens up the possibility that flies experience other emotions too. The finding further suggests that other small creatures — from ants to spiders — may be emotional beings as well. "No one will argue with you if you claim that flies have four fundamental drives just as humans do: feeding, fighting, fleeing, and mating," says William Gibson, lead author of the study published in the journal Current Biology. "Taking the question a step further — whether flies that flee a stimulus are actually afraid of that stimulus — is much more difficult," adds Gibson, a postdoctoral fellow at Caltech. Such a 'stimulus' could be an annoyed person chasing the fly with a swatter, or even a creepy shadow that could mean a threat is imminent. Afraid of shadows The researchers used shadows to study how flies reacted to something that could be fear inducing. Gibson and his team enclosed flies in an arena where the buzzing insects were exposed repeatedly to an overhead shadow. The flies looked startled and, if flying, increased their speed. Occasionally the flies froze in place, a defensive behaviour also observed in the fear responses of rodents. The shadows even caused hungry flies to leave a food source, when that was presented during another phase of the experiment. It then took time before those same flies would return to their food, suggesting a gradual diminishment of the insects' internal, defensive state. Importantly, the more shadows the flies were exposed to, the longer it took for them to "calm down" and return to the food. In other words, when flies flee in response to a shadow, it's more than a momentary escape. It's a lasting physiological state comparable to how we experience fear. Naysayers could claim that this was all just instinctual behaviour with no real underlying depth to it. But even for humans and other higher-on-the-food chain animals, feelings fall into what the researchers call "emotion primitives." These have to do with how nerves, biochemistry and other underlying factors work. For fear, the first basic characteristic is that the fear is persistent, Gibson said. For example, if a person hears the sound of a gun, the feeling of fear that it provokes will continue for a period of time. The second characteristic is that fear is scalable - the more gunshots a person hears, the more afraid he or she will become. The third characteristic of fear, according to the researchers, is that it exists across different contexts. And fear is also "trans-situational" - once you're afraid, you're more likely to respond in fear to other triggers, such as the clang of a pan, for instance, or a loud knock at the door. Gibson and his colleagues determined that all of these applied to the flies in the study, strongly suggesting that they do indeed feel the emotion fear as we do. Other applications There's more to this research than just learning about flies, the scientists say. It's helping the scientists to understand, in a very fundamental way, what constitutes fear and other emotions in all animals, including humans. "The argument that this paper makes is that the Drosophila (a type of fly) system may be an excellent model for emotion states due to the relative simplicity of its nervous system, combined simultaneously with the behavioural complexity it exhibits," Gibson explains. Such a system may make it possible to identify new molecular players involved in the control of emotion states, he says. Those, in turn, could lead to better treatments for people suffering from nervous disorders, depression and much more. Related: Pesky flies use fighter jet manoeuvres https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2017-02-24/smart-bees-learn-how-to-use-tools-by-watching-others/8297576?section=science They may have tiny brains, but it turns out that bumblebees can not only learn to use tools by observing others, they can improvise and make the task even easier. Key points: Bees were taught how to do a task they would not normally do They were able to improve on the task after watching another bee complete it Study shows that bees have cognitive powers way beyond what we thought an insect could have We knew bees were smart, but this level of brain power has never before been seen in an insect, according to a team of UK scientists writing in the journal Science. "Our study terminates the idea that small brains constrain insects to have limited behavioural flexibility and only simple learning abilities," said Olli Loukola of Queen Mary University of London. Dr Loukola said previous research had shown that bees could solve a range of complex tasks, including categorising objects, simple spatial concepts and even counting. "But these tasks have always resembled those similar to the insect's natural foraging routines," he said. To take the bees out of their comfort zone, Dr Loukola and his colleagues designed a series of experiments where the bees were taught to move a ball to the centre of a platform, in exchange for a food reward. How to train a bee The researchers used a plastic bumblebee to show the bees what to do, until the learners successfully completed the task themselves within five minutes. But then the team went further by training bees in a set-up with three balls, where the two closest to the centre were superglued to the platform. These bees were then used as "trainers", fetching the farthest ball in a repeat of the same set-up, with an untrained bee watching. Remarkably, when those watching bees were then offered a similar scenario on their own — this time with three unglued balls to choose from — they not only succeeded, they tended to choose the closest ball to the centre, improving on the behaviour of the trainer bees. Bees that were trained by a hidden magnet or got no lesson at all, on the other hand, were much less successful. It seems that bees do their best learning — and improvising — after watching a fellow bumblebee do the job. Dr Loukola said the findings showed that the observer bees were not simply copying what they saw; they were taking it on board and improving it. "This goal-directed behaviour shows an impressive amount of cognitive flexibility, especially for an insect," he said. He said the bees' capacity to solve complex tasks could help them to survive constantly changing environments. "However, rapid climate change, habitat loss and the use of pesticides are unfortunately too much, even for the cleverest bumblebees," he said. Bumblebee loaded with pollen Bumblebees continue to surprise us with their brain power.(Wikimedia: Tony Willis) Bees smarter than we give them credit for Associate Professor Andrew Barron of Macquarie University said the study provided a "convincing argument" that bees could rapidly learn how to do something by watching others. "That's been very contentious as to whether insects can do that," said Dr Barron, who studies bee brains. He said the study demonstrated bees were a lot more behaviourally flexible and adaptable than we had given them credit for. "We are getting an increasing idea about how the structure of the bee brain works. What is continuing to surprise us, is what bees are doing with that brain," he said. "We wouldn't be surprised to see [this kind of behaviour] in something like a rat, but certainly this is the first demonstration we've got of these forms of behaviour [in insects]," he said. Dr Barron said the study also provided a different perspective on the human brain. "For me, the questions is how are they able to achieve this level of behavioural flexibility with a brain that has less than a million neurons?" "If a bee can do this kind of thing ... with a tiny brain, why is ours so massive?" https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2014/04/11/3983454.htm Pesky flies use fighter jet manoeuvres Friday, 11 April 2014Will Dunham Reuters A flying fruit fly (Drosophila hydei). The flies showed that they could roll on their sides by upwards of 90 degrees, sometimes flying almost upside down (Source: Floris van Breugel and Florian Muijres/) Related Stories Video games test bees' visual smarts, Science Online, 18 Mar 2014 Fornicating flies attract hungry bats, Science Online, 24 Jul 2012 The intricate world of flies, Science Online, 19 May 2009 What does a tiny fruit fly have in common with the world's most advanced fighter jets like the US Air Force's F-22 Raptor? More than you might think. Scientists using video cameras to track a fly's aerial manoeuvres found the insect employs astonishingly quick mid-air banked turns to evade predators much like a fighter jet executes to elude an enemy. Their study, published in the journal Science, documents aerial agility in fruit flies such as the capacity to begin to change course in less than one one-hundredth of a second. The fact that flies are airborne acrobats should not surprise anyone who has ever swung a flyswatter at one, only to watch the little insects easily escape. The researchers at the University of Washington synchronised three high-speed cameras operating at 7,500 frames a second to learn the secrets of what the flies do to make themselves so elusive. They tracked the mid-air wing and body motion of the fruit fly species Drosophila hydei, which is about the size of a sesame seed, inside a cylindrical flight chamber after the insects were shown an image that suggested an approaching predator. The flies produced impressive escape responses, almost instantaneously rolling their bodies like a military jet in a banked turn to steer away. While executing the turn, the flies showed that they could roll on their sides by upwards of 90 degrees, sometimes flying almost upside down. "They generate a rather precise banked turn, just like an aircraft pilot would, to roll the body and generate a force to take them away from the threat," says University of Washington biology Professor Michael Dickinson, who led the study. "That happens very quickly. And it's generated with remarkably subtle changes in wing motion. We were pretty astonished by how little they have to do with their wing motion to generate these very precise manoeuvres," he says. Ancient reflexes The fly flaps its wings about 200 times a second, and in almost a single wing beat can reorient its body to manoeuvre away from the threat and continue to accelerate, Florian Muijres, says another of the researchers. "I suspect that these are very ancient reflexes," Dickinson adds. "Very shortly after insects evolved flight, other insects evolved flight to eat them. Circuits for detecting predators are very, very ancient. But this one is just being implemented in a high-performance flight machine." A lot of light was needed to accommodate the cameras' extraordinarily high shutter speeds, but because a fly would be blinded by the necessary amounts of normal light, the researchers used very bright infrared lights. Like people, fruit flies do not see infrared light. "I've always been fascinated by flies. Everybody thinks that they have a simple nervous system, but I think it's exactly the opposite. They just have a really tiny one. But it's incredibly compact. They do so much with just this brain the size of a salt grain," Dickinson says. I hope to god that nobody lived their lives thinking animals were not emotional beings. Well you learn something new every day. Our destination is arriving before us but are we willing to accept the error of our ways or depart this exercise in futility? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 10 hours ago, Vice-Regent said: I hope to god that nobody lived their lives thinking animals were not emotional beings. Well you learn something new every day. Our destination is arriving before us but are we willing to accept the error of our ways or depart this exercise in futility? Amazingly some very anthropocentric people who should have known better thought animals were no different from robots for a long time and used it to justify their unethical treatment of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 This will be the tenth year since 2007 with a daily NSIDC minimum extent in the 4s. Two years finished below 4 million sq km and three slightly above 5 million sq km. Following 2007, no year has been able to finish above 6 million sq km in a much warmer Arctic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2021 Author Share Posted September 12, 2021 I think the area min has been reached. It increased another 27k today. We’re now over 200k above the 9/1 minimum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 12, 2021 Share Posted September 12, 2021 The NSIDC site now has an http link for their data. This is useful since many browsers no longer support FTP. https://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Arctic sea ice extent was 4.648 million square kilometers on September 11 on JAXA. The minimum extent is likely near or imminent, but the Larry's impact is a wildcard. The 25th percentile (lowest) based on the August 31 value was 4.610 million square kilometers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Arctic sea ice extent was 4.648 million square kilometers on September 11 on JAXA. The minimum extent is likely near or imminent, but the Larry's impact is a wildcard. The 25th percentile (lowest) based on the August 31 value was 4.610 million square kilometers. Larry made landfall as an 80 mph true hurricane near St John's, Labrador- Don is that the furthest north landfall a hurricane has ever made? I heard it will drop 4 feet of snow on Greenland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Larry made landfall as an 80 mph true hurricane near St John's, Labrador- Don is that the furthest north landfall a hurricane has ever made? I heard it will drop 4 feet of snow on Greenland? I am not sure about the pure hurricane vs. post-tropical/transitioning hurricane, as the charts don't distinguish between them. Greenland picked up 10 gigatons of mass yesterday from the Larry-induced blizzard. That was, by far, a record for this early in the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 Arctic sea ice extent fell further to 4.613 million square kilometers (JAXA). The last year with a higher minimum was 2014 when the minimum extent was 4.884 million square kilometers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: I am not sure about the pure hurricane vs. post-tropical/transitioning hurricane, as the charts don't distinguish between them. Greenland picked up 10 gigatons of mass yesterday from the Larry-induced blizzard. That was, by far, a record for this early in the season. Good morning Don, Liberty. Even as my personal time ebbs, I think of equations and the balance they seek to describe. If a true p-t/hurricane hitting Labrador and 10 gigs-tons of frozen mass, descending on Greenland, is an example, my fear for the direction/results of balance will continue to grow. As always ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I am not sure about the pure hurricane vs. post-tropical/transitioning hurricane, as the charts don't distinguish between them. Greenland picked up 10 gigatons of mass yesterday from the Larry-induced blizzard. That was, by far, a record for this early in the season. How is added mass measured? That's fascinating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: How is added mass measured? That's fascinating! It’s estimated from satellite gravity measurements. Here’s a paper that explains, in part, about the process. More complex measurements take into consideration changes in ice, run-off, etc. https://escholarship.org/content/qt6jh183rg/qt6jh183rg.pdf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 13, 2021 Share Posted September 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It’s estimated from satellite gravity measurements. Here’s a paper that explains, in part, about the process. More complex measurements take into consideration changes in ice, run-off, etc. https://escholarship.org/content/qt6jh183rg/qt6jh183rg.pdf Is there a way to equate this to snowfall measurements? I wonder if we can now confirm record snow depths using this method? Not to mention measure new record high and record low temps from remote parts of the world where there are few sensors (like remote parts of Antarctica that might be colder than Vostok?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted September 15, 2021 Share Posted September 15, 2021 It may take several days longer to be sure, but Jaxa extent minimum may have been reached two days ago at 4.612 million km2. We currently stand 54,000 km2 above that number after two straight days of increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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