Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[ORH_wxman]

This summer's pressure pattern isn't nearly as favorable for ice retention as the classic reverse dipole retention seasons (like 1996, 2006, or even 2013)....the core of the low pressure anomalies were on the North American side of the pole in those years whereas this year it's up on the Asian side in the Laptev/adjacent CAB. That's going to advect some milder air in at times from Siberia.

It's still a lot better than last year though.

[bluewave]

There is actually lower pressures closer to North American side this year compared to 2013 and 2006. But since there is so much record warmth surrounding the Arctic, warmer air is being drawn north. The warmer spring this year also allowed more of a head start on the melt than 2013. But this pattern is still  more favorable than the raging dipole pattern last year. That is why we are falling behind 2020s pace. I also suspect that we will fall behind 2012 going forward. .

 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

That dominant vortex on the asian side draws warmer air in from the Siberian mainland. You can see it show up well on the anomalies so far this summer. A reverse dipole like 2013 would have kept it colder.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I dunno... CO2 released back to the atmosphere above the background geologic processes to absorb it, results in heating the atmosphere of the planet.  

Inevitably, warm air WILL intrude the polar inner domain, including melting the ice caps.  I'm not talking in 10 minutes... Over time - that said, that time ...is speeding up. 

It is the more culpable longer term system forcing mechanism at this sort of planetary scope and scale.  

I just think it risky to and borderline evasive to rely upon sub-physical causality to explain melting when these/those sub- scale forcing mechanism have been their through the geological epoch, and only now they matter, for a changed reason.

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Check out the +AO Jun1-July 14 composite since Wester drought began in 1995. 

[bluewave]

It’s not surprising that we are tracking near the 2011-2020 mean in late July since it’s only 2021. The NSIDC site has the 10 year average September daily sea ice extent minimums. After big melt out years like 2012 and 2020, we have seen a bounce the following years. So it’s no surprise that we have recently fallen behind 2020. Just like 2013 had a nice rebound back above the 2012 lows. But the long term trend is downward which is probably the most significant feature which can get lost in the year to year noise.

 

NSIDC September 10 year mean September daily minimum extents

2011-2020…..4.423 million sq km

2001-2010…..5.388 

1991-2000…..6.499

1979-1990…...6.959

[so_whats_happening]

Its funny you say the tears will be flowing I think many want this situation to not be unfolding as it is. Even with current conditions this seems to be about as good as we can get with a retention/recovery year given the last decade of craziness up there with how things are still evolving and yet we are still third lowest in extent. Lets not play coy on this subject that its just going to continue this way of recovery, I would be surprised if we stay above 4.5 mil in extent this year. I personally cheer and hope that we personally did not completely ruin a region of the world and the ice can somehow come back but that hope has been fading as the years go by. I worry that another el nino will do some major damage to the ice so if we do manage to have another la nina this year its almost inevitable for a nino to follow so going into fall of 2022 and the start of 2023 offers that potential.

 We have at least another month and a half of true melt while insolation is not super high right now it really doesnt seem like it would take much for the pack to come crashing, it always comes down to the weather. So here I am hoping that this year may be salvageable yet and prepare itself better for the refreeze but Ill hold until we get to about mid september. 

[bluewave]

Though it’s not as extreme as we saw last year, models have the first dipole of the season in late July. So a reversal of the lower pressure pattern which has dominated the Arctic for the first half of summer. Several parts of the Arctic had near the lowest pressures on record for this time period. It’s a departure from recent years which had strong dipole patterns early and shifted to lower pressures later in the season.

 

[bluewave]

On 7/19/2021 at 7:50 AM, Weatherdude88 said:

2021 northern hemisphere sea ice compactness is above the 1980's, 1990's, 2000's, and 2010's average. Anticyclonic weather patterns will not have the same effect on extent, that we have see with dispersed years. 

Solar insolation is rapidly declining. The high arctic has missed the boat for preconditioning and melt momentum. By the end of July / 1st week of August, solar insolation is no longer the deciding factor. Time is up. Tik Tok...Tik Tok
 

The early season forecast based on the melt pond fraction came out with a 4.5 million sq km average extent for the whole month of September. The daily minimum extent would probably be just below that level. So a rebound off the lows of last year which was just above the 2012 minimum. But we would need an impressive slow down to bounce above 5.0 million sq km like 2013 did. These bounces after extremely low years are common as was discussed in the paper that I posted earlier in the thread. 
 

https://www.arcus.org/files/sio/32173/cpom_ucl_gregory_et_al.pdf

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Starting in 2017 we are accepting both pan-Arctic and pan-Antarctic sea ice extent (either one or both) of the September monthly mean. As in 2016, we are also collecting Alaskan regional sea ice extent. To be consistent with the validating sea ice extent index from NSIDC, if possible, please first compute the average sea ice concentration for the month and then compute the extent as the sum of cell areas > 15%.
a) Pan-Arctic September extent prediction in million square kilometers.
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b) same as in (a) but for pan-Antarctic. If your method differs substantially from that for the Arctic, please enter it as a separate submission.

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Weatherdude88 said:

2021 featured a dipole for extended periods in April, May, and briefly in June. This is why transport out of the arctic was significant during these months. The ice remaining in the Kara, is also a classic sign of this since it was on the cool edge of the dipole. 
 

The blocking was very strong over the Arctic this past winter. But really reversed in the spring. While there was some blocking in May, it wasn’t that strong. The low pressure has been at record levels in the Arctic since June. 

[SnoSki14]

It's pretty pathetic that despite a favorable ice retention pattern we're still not too far from record sea ice lows. 

I fully anticipate another cliff dive year like 2012 very soon (next 1-3 years). 

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's pretty pathetic that despite a favorable ice retention pattern we're still not too far from record sea ice lows. 

I fully anticipate another cliff dive year like 2012 very soon (next 1-3 years). 

We're only superficially close on 2012 extent...NSIDC has us only 10k more, but JAXA and UBremen have us over 500,000 sqkm behind and we're also trailing 2012 by over 500,000 sqkm in area. NSIDC extent will eventually start lagging 2012 significantly. We won't finish close to 2012 given the current numbers.

The ice is actually very compact right now which is not what you want to see when you are looking for a huge cliff in the coming weeks. 

[bluewave]

Too bad that the CPC doesn’t maintain a daily and monthly AD index like they do for the other teleconnections. The historic negative run from 2007 to 2012 set the stage for the big record sea ice declines in 2007 and 2012. But last year came close following impressive May preconditioning. This was followed by a strong July Dipole and historic Siberian Arctic heat.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053268

Table 1. Monthly AD Index for 2005–2012

	May	June	July	Aug.	Sept.
2005	−0.42	−0.40	0.05	−0.23	−1.96
2006	−1.20	0.94	0.06	0.00	−1.89
2007	−0.52	−1.08	−1.65	−1.77	−1.23
2008	−1.06	−1.16	−0.58	−0.63	0.44
2009	2.40	−1.46	−1.95	−0.57	0.04
2010	−0.03	−1.86	0.36	−1.88	−0.72
2011	−0.36	−1.56	−1.20	−1.29	2.41
2012	−1.61	−0.84

 

 

Figure 2

Open in figure viewerPowerPoint

Regression coefficients of the June-mean sea-level pressure anomalies from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis projected onto the first two EOF spatial patterns of the extended winter mean sea-level pressure north of 70–90°N [fromOverland and Wang, 2010]. The June AO is shown by gray bars, and the June AD is shown by blue solid lines. Both time series are normalized by their standard deviation for 1948–2012.

[4] The only similar AD occurrence during the 63-year time series to recent years is a run of weak negative values from 1954–1960, when the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields had less supporting Arctic data. Thus we can say that a six year run of near one standard deviation negative excursions (2007–2012) is unique in the 63 year record. To further test the significance of the 2007–2012 AD patterns we randomly generated 10,000 time series, each with 63 points to match the observed time series and with a normal distribution without autocorrelation. For this simple calculation, the chance for having five consecutive values with a negative AD of magnitude greater than 1.0 standard deviation units in a sample size of 63 is rare, less than 1 in a 1000.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/19/2021 at 11:28 AM, bluewave said:

The blocking was very strong over the Arctic this past winter. But really reversed in the spring. While there was some blocking in May, it wasn’t that strong. The low pressure has been at record levels in the Arctic since June. 

I see it's been record hot in Siberia again this summer, back to back summers at 100 or higher at Verkhoyansk?

All this smoke and dust from the wild fires has me thinking, how much could we stave off warming by adding dust to the upper atmosphere?  One of the reasons cited for the jump in temps after the 70s was the Clean Air Act.

 

[so_whats_happening]

Still not entirely sure yet on hycom and its authenticity with thickness but man that looks rough if this is anywhere close to reality. Multi year ice is almost non exsistent. Forecast is for the remaining kara sea ice to be dealing with temps at least 2-4C above average for about a week and a half, beyond?? The arctic also deals with about .5-1C above average for the last bit of july and into the first week of august as -AO develops and ridging becomes the main feature the beaufort and chukchi seas may manage ok with this set up I would worry also about the central Arctic taking a hit come the end of the month. 

 

Meanwhile greenland all but goes above freezing during this time period. Just 6 hours prior to those other timestamps we have this look just rough. Still have about another month of decent melt potential in the cards especially if a pattern like this persists the rest of the season.

[so_whats_happening]

15 hours ago, Weatherdude88 said:

 

It gets better and better .

Weenies are now posting navigational aids and saying the ice thickness looks rough (it’s not a climate tool).

Even their website states “Disclaimer: This 1/12° Global HYCOM+CICE system and web page are a demonstration and are not an operational product."

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/POLAR.html

It is well known not to use Hycom as any climate tool for sea ice thickness.

https://tos.org/oceanography/assets/docs/22-2_chassignet.pdf

Its funny to watch you get blasted with your retorts on every forum. I dont think I have seen you post anything but a chart and say this proves it right here what that point is Im still not understanding. Are you trying to prove the ice will be better this year? Are you saying from here on out things will be better for the arctic? We are still two days away from the heat just starting to enter the high arctic and with ridging over the area full sun will be out, yes with declining insolation each day but warm windy weather and sun is duo that even in our latitudes snow/ice melts out from this. Add in any moisture potential and the process really speeds up. There also seems to be a push from the american/canada region of ridging over the CAA with potential +2-4C anomalies showing up.

Im not sure how thickness is not important in your eyes . If you are changing albedo rapidly in seasons via snow and ice extent you change the atmsophere around it. The amount of heat and energy still within the system is  rather large and would take many many years of near perfect conditions to try and balance it out. Its funny its usually the ones that are grasping at straws calling other folks names, weenies, that have the least to bring to the table. lol

Seems to also be rather similar to piomass numbers average of about 1.4m.

[so_whats_happening]

Lol you just dont read

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Lol you just dont read

This part needs to be reread:

We are still two days away from the heat just starting to enter the high arctic and with ridging over the area full sun will be out, yes with declining insolation each day but warm windy weather and sun is duo that even in our latitudes snow/ice melts out from this. Add in any moisture potential and the process really speeds up. There also seems to be a push from the american/canada region of ridging over the CAA with potential +2-4C anomalies showing up.

 

Ice thickness is about a lot more than just solar insolation.  Meanwhile the glaciers are going bye bye all across the globe and people are fiddling while Rome burns (not that I ever liked the Roman Empire or its philosophy of conquest but that's for another day lol.)

 

[ORH_wxman]

Stick a fork in any shot at a top 5 I think....area is lagging badly vs other years:

2020: -810k

2019: -590k

2018: -50k

2017: -210k

2016: -490k

2015: -280k

2014: +140k

2013: -140k

2012: -650k

2011: -530k

2010: -160k

2009: +320k

2008: +310k

2007: -400k

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Counter intuitive perhaps ... but what we want is a raging +AO

It's a warm index mode for mid latitudes, but that's by virtue of the fact that the westerlies are contracted polarward around the hemisphere during +AO phase.  This 'bottles' up the cold and allows it promote its self - more so in the autumn and winter of course. 

But, the sun slope over the N pole being what it is... I am wondering if there is any solar max ( May 8 to to Aug 8 ... plus seasonal time-lag) +AO vs -AO correlation efforts made wrt to cryosphere.   IF so, per relative anomaly. 

I know in winter, +AO --> -AO is how to unload the cold.  In other words, the former builds it up... the latter supplies the conveyors during release.  It is easier to visualize +AO cold production when above 77 deg latitude it is virtually nocturnal for 3 -6 mo's, than it is to do so when that same region is in virtual day the other times.

 

[A-L-E-K]

idk man

 

[bluewave]

This is actually the lowest Arctic pressures for the first half of summer since 1989. Looking at the raw indices like the AO doesn’t really do this pattern justice. While the core of the low pressure is closer to the Russian side this summer, the overall Arctic pressures haven’t been this low in the post 2007 era. In the much cooler late 80s with the healthier ice pack, we would be talking about a September daily minimum extent near 7 million sq km like 1989. But we’ll  have to settle for whatever passes for good in the post 2007 Arctic this year.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, Weatherdude88 said:

 

Let's look at the average surface pressure in 2016. Does this look familiar? It should. The 2016 summer melting season featured a positive AO.

 

Let's look at 925mb temps. 

Here is 2016:
 

Here is 2021:

 

Upper level temps were significantly cooler (especially in the Western Arctic) in 2016 despite a similar pressure configuration in 2021 over the Central / Western Arctic.

 

So far this is the second most positive summer AO on record for the June into July period. 2016 wasn’t nearly as positive for this first half of summer interval. If the lower pressures were more aligned with the AO region, then it would be even more positive. That’s  why the raw indices don’t always  tell the complete story. It would be nice to have the daily AD  anomaly to combine the two indices for a more complete picture. You can see the Arctic pressures were lowest in the series for the month of June just edging  out 1970.

[so_whats_happening]

On 7/26/2021 at 9:43 PM, Weatherdude88 said:

 

Let's look at the average surface pressure in 2016. Does this look familiar? It should. The 2016 summer melting season featured a positive AO.

Let's look at 925mb temps. 

Here is 2016:

Here is 2021:

Upper level temps were significantly cooler (especially in the Western Arctic) in 2016 despite a similar pressure configuration in 2021 over the Central / Western Arctic.

 

The composite anomaly for 2016 instead of the SLP for the same time period as bluewaves post for comparison purposes.

Not as anomalous as this year and 1989, still decent. 2016 got torn up the following month (7/16-8/16) across the region where the anomalies were. Not to mention coming off a super nino.

The Pacific was struggling hard that year while if we look back at 2013 not only was the ice strong in similar locations to this year https://cryospherecomputing.tk/PastSIT.html <-- scroll to 6/1/13 and compare it to the video shown https://cryospherecomputing.tk/SIT.html  (scroll down to the video) starting on 6/1/21. This year has featured more winds off the continent so ice depleted quickly along the siberian coast/ Laptev Sea area and more compaction, if you will, over toward the america/canada region. I included the 2013 anomaly plot for comparison similar placement to 1989 just not as anomalous as this year and 1989.

[bluewave]

The big story this summer is how we needed a record low pressure  pattern to get back closer to the 2010s average following the near record finish last year.

 

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The big story this summer is how we needed a record low pressure  pattern to get back closer to the 2010s average following the near record finish last year.

 

[forkyfork]

lol

[bdgwx]

Some sea ice coupled GCMs did show that the 2020's could be a stall decade, but definitely not a recovery. I don't even know how a recovery could be possible considering the planetary energy imbalance is sitting at close to +0.9 W/m2 right now. And it might even be increasing at that. And given that environmental conditions this year should have promoted higher sea ice extent/area and yet we're still well below average is rather telling.  Recovery is a pipe dream.

[forkyfork]

they have been chasing a recovery for over a decade

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

 

The record MYI decline during and after the 2007 melt season was an important shift in the state of the Arctic. None of the more favorable summers since then have been able to bounce back above 6 million sq km for a NSIDC September daily minimum.There were two finishes below 4 million sq km and only three slightly above 5 million sq km. Most years since 2007 have finished somewhere in the 4s million sq km range. So a bit of a holding pattern lower range from 2013 to 2021. We’ll have to see when the next step down occurs.

https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/2007_seaiceminimum/20071001_pressrelease.html

Arctic sea ice during the 2007 melt season plummeted to the lowest levels since satellite measurements began in 1979. The average sea ice extent for the month of September was 4.28 million square kilometers (1.65 million square miles), the lowest September on record, shattering the previous record for the month, set in 2005, by 23 percent 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2008/04/

New ice growth over winter 2007/2008

As the winter extent numbers indicate, new ice growth was strong over the winter. Nevertheless, this new ice is probably fairly thin.  Thin ice is vulnerable to melting away during summer. Figures 4 and 5 indicate that relatively thin, first-year ice now covers 72% of the Arctic Basin, including the region around the North Pole; in 2007, that number was 59%.  Usually, only 30% of first-year ice formed during the winter survives the summer melt season; in 2007, only 13% survived. Even if more first-year ice survives than normal, the September minimum extent this year will likely be extremely low.

Why is there so much first-year ice this spring?  Partly, it is because last summer’s record-breaking ice loss created extensive open-water areas in which new ice could form.  Anomalous winds in winter can also flush thicker, older ice out of the Arctic, leaving the Arctic with a greater coverage of first-year ice. 

As noted by our colleague Ignatius Rigor of the University of Washington at Seattle, this winter saw a return of the Arctic Oscillation to its positive mode, an atmospheric pattern especially effective in flushing out thick, old ice.

So what about the multi-year ice that remained after last year’s record ice loss? Jennifer Kay and colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Research found that last summer’s clear skies allowed for more intense melt of the multiyear ice, leaving it  thinner than normal at summer’s end.

For more on the Arctic’s transition towards younger ice, see an animation of changing sea ice age (scroll to Figure 4 of August 22, 2007 entry) by colleague Jim Maslanik and coauthors.