Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

This record +AO pattern was more like something we saw around 1990.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Previous studies, led by University of Washington scientist Ignatius Rigor (e.g., Rigor et al., 2002), suggest that a positive winter phase of the Arctic Oscillation favors low sea ice extent the subsequent September. Wind patterns “flush” old, thick ice out of the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait and promote the production of thin ice along the Eurasian coast that is especially prone to melting out in summer. However, in recent years, this relationship has not been as clear (Stroeve et al., 2011). The potential effects this winter’s positive AO on the summer evolution of ice extent and the September 2020 minimum bears watching.

early 90s were very similar.... but we had a solar maximum back then and a solar minimum now?

[etudiant]

No expert, but am struck how closely the recent Arctic ice area is tracking the 2012 values. See:  https://cryospherecomputing.tk

May just be coincidence, but perhaps an early indication of history repeating.

[LibertyBell]

On 3/6/2020 at 6:39 PM, etudiant said:

No expert, but am struck how closely the recent Arctic ice area is tracking the 2012 values. See:  https://cryospherecomputing.tk

May just be coincidence, but perhaps an early indication of history repeating.

I'm thinking that we are going back into a similar pattern wrt to our next few summers also (and next year will be near the peak of the 11 yr solar cycle of very hot summers.)

[bdgwx]

March 5 with a 5d average of 15.047 on NSIDC might be the max. I'd give greater than 50% odds at this point. We'll see.

[forkyfork]

On 1/24/2020 at 10:05 AM, SnoSki14 said:

These are temporary sea ice gains. The ice will collapse just as quickly once the vortex collapses in late winter. 

[bdgwx]

Another day and another sharp decline. The NSIDC did call the top as March 5th.

[Vice-Regent]

5 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Another day and another sharp decline. The NSIDC did call the top as March 5th.

[forkyfork]

On 2/3/2020 at 2:49 PM, Weatherdude88 said:

forkyfork,

Instead of being pessimistic and ‘butt hurt’ by data showing the most sea ice in 15 years, perhaps you will find the use of your time more constructive, if you have a mind set of optimism, about a possible sea ice recovery for this year (I predict 2020 will be a recovery year).

Current projections, using average melting seasons from the historical NSIDC sea ice extent data set, give us a minimum between 4.8 - 5.0 millions of square kilometers for the 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice extent minimum (This would be quite the recovery). 

how's this looking now

[forkyfork]

as soon as the winter PV pattern ended the ice collapsed back to normal

 

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

as soon as the winter PV pattern ended the ice collapsed back to normal

The 6-10 & 8-14 day forecasts don't look too pretty either. So much for a big recovery.

RIP to climate change deniers. 

[etudiant]

Arctic ice area seems to be following about the same trend as 2016. That suggests a minimum extent around 12 MM square km ,  somewhere close to a record low.

[ORH_wxman]

15 hours ago, etudiant said:

Arctic ice area seems to be following about the same trend as 2016. That suggests a minimum extent around 12 MM square km ,  somewhere close to a record low.

Too early to get a good handle on the low. We need to wait until mid/late June.

Jaxa (and Area) at this point in 2012 was higher than 1996 (the highest min year on record).

[forkyfork]

On 2/6/2020 at 5:11 AM, Weatherdude88 said:

Northern hemisphere snow cover is well below average this winter.

 

The snow water equivalent (the total volume) is significantly above the 1998-2011 average.

 

The higher latitude regions that have snow cover, have a lot of it.

 

As we approach the end of the 2019/2020 freezing season, we may have more ice and snow volume, in harder to melt areas at higher latitudes, than all years in the previous decade.

There has been significant focus on the lack of snow extent cover, at lower latitude and easier to melt regions, even though we have near record snow/ice volume in the more difficult to melt regions.

We may have an extended 2019/2020 freezing season. The 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice melting season may get off to a slow start.

oops

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I haven't posted here in a long time because the Arctic sea ice forum is way more active. 

 

And because the Arctic has hit a wall in Spring with all of the anomalous factors that have lead to the ice change the last couple of decades.

 

Part of it is because the pattern hasn't  seen a June dipole/sun bath since 2012.

The recent essentially record warm/anomalous ridge was incredible.

And for a few days Arctic sea ice albedo really dropped over a large portion of the basin.

However as soon as the pattern changed the ice surface couldn't retain it's wetness.  It has refroze.  Not all the way back to before the ridge but quite a bit.

This tells me that solar altitude cannot overcome dry snow/ice albedo in middle of May.

 

Which means in the future in order to get the powerful solar insolation to actually kick start the melt season in middle May will require ambient conditions to be warmer to reinforce the solar insolation

Like snow cover melt happening 1-2 weeks earlier than it ever has along the Arctic Arctic coast and river Delta's opening up earlier as well.

This would allow the near surface lower troposphere to warm quite a bit faster than it currently does.

Essentially to get a record this summer we will have to go back to a highly anomalous dipole. 

The CAA has been spared for a while. 

Anyways right now everything is set up for a potential record Ice loss summer thanks to the UNBELIEVABLE RIDGE that rolled through the basin.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

On 9/11/2019 at 3:51 PM, ORH_wxman said:

 

Time to verify this prediction based on the data at the end of June.

 

Assuming we have reached the minimums for both area and extent on 9/4 (looking more and more likely), then both of these fell outside my range, albeit not by much. The final minimum area was 2.87 million sq km and the final minimum extent was 4.23 million sq km. These are both NSIDC numbers. The predictions were looking excellent through mid-August until we had an unprecedented slowdown in late August that has leaked into early September. So I ended up making predictions that were slightly too low compared to reality.

 

I was correct in identifying the very strong chance of a top 3 finish (and also being skeptical of challenging the top spot), but I really needed to bump my middle numbers in the range up about 100-200k. Overall, I think this was a decent prediction compared to what we see on the Arctic Sea Ice outlook that gets published by NSIDC....but I am still disappointed I could not get it within my range. It might be that 200k error bars are just too small to consistently hit on predictions when it comes to sea ice. Using 400k error bars would have this method hit every year I've done it with the exception of 2016. But I will probably try to continue to use 200k error bars....and maybe see where the method can be improved.

Time to bump the sea ice tracking for 2020....we're coming off last year's top 3 finish for both area (3rd lowest) and extent (2nd lowest).

2020 is off to a slower start than 2019 was, so it will need to catch up some more to get into contention. 2020 started off fast in May with extensive meltponding (most on record), but that trend reversed near the end of the month and early June when extensive refreezing of melt ponds caused the area to stall. We've been falling faster again recently.

For those who follow this thread regularly, you know I like to track NSIDC area in late June because it is the most accurate predictor of minimum area/extent later in the season. Here is where we currently stand on area vs other years (i.e. 2019 had 250k less area than this year on this date)

2019: -250k

2018: +300k

2017: +230k

2016: -150k

2015: +90k

2014: +340k

2013: +390k

2012: -600k

2011: +120k

2010: +150k

2009: +860k

2008: +410k

2007: +10k

 

 

As you can see, we're running somewhat low in the post-2007 world, but not as low as several years. You'll also note that some years like 2011 which finished very low were not standing out yet. There is still time for things to change in either direction which is why I usually start tracking closely in mid-June through the end of the month when I make a prediction based on the month-end values.
 

There is currently a hostile pattern over the arctic for the ice which is aiding some big numbers right now, but the forecast looks to go toward a reverse dipole pattern by the end of the week and stay there all of the next week if ensemble guidance is correct....so that would likely slow down the losses. I'll update this tracker every few days until month-end....probably doing daily updates in a final few days of the month.

 

[beavis1729]

I keep my eye on Verkhoyansk in Russia, as a bellwether for Siberian cold/warmth.  Later this week, they may get into the 90s, which would be all-time record heat for the month of June.  Normals are only around 70/50.  Verkhoyansk has the greatest range of any location on the planet, between all-time high and all-time low temps:  189 degrees (99F to -90F).

 

[ORH_wxman]

Massive losses in area from the dipole pattern that just happened.....we now only trail 2012 for lowest area on this date.

2007 and 2010 (and to a lesser extent 2016 and 2019) lose huge area though over the next week, so the question is whether we can stay in the top 3 or top 5 as the weather goes to a reverse dipole over the arctic basin.

[ORH_wxman]

On 6/19/2020 at 10:34 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Massive losses in area from the dipole pattern that just happened.....we now only trail 2012 for lowest area on this date.

2007 and 2010 (and to a lesser extent 2016 and 2019) lose huge area though over the next week, so the question is whether we can stay in the top 3 or top 5 as the weather goes to a reverse dipole over the arctic basin.

We've slowed down recently from the reverse dipole.....2020 now trails 2019, 2012, 2010, and 2007. Though not by huge amounts, so a top 3 melt season is still very much possible. We'll see if the area losses pick back up as the reverse dipole weakens.

[LibertyBell]

On 6/16/2020 at 3:10 PM, beavis1729 said:

I keep my eye on Verkhoyansk in Russia, as a bellwether for Siberian cold/warmth.  Later this week, they may get into the 90s, which would be all-time record heat for the month of June.  Normals are only around 70/50.  Verkhoyansk has the greatest range of any location on the planet, between all-time high and all-time low temps:  189 degrees (99F to -90F).

 

Did you read about this incredible heat and forest fires in Siberia?  They've been +20 F in heat for like six months now and just hit 100 F- first time ever north of the arctic circle!

Unprecedented heat in Siberia which the media isn't really talking about.

I've noticed hotter temps occurring farther north this year, seems like the attic fire that started in the high Arctic has spread farther south and has now reached northern VT and Maine with temps approaching 100 there, all time records.

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1274880733052469249

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1274757559216476160

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1 ... 3052469249

that has videos of the fires in northern Siberia

here is the official record of the 100.4 temp at Verhoyansk

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/stat ... 9216476160

 

We've already seen the negative effects of a snowless winter here......nasty explosion of bugs this year, with a horde of gnats near my Poconos home that makes working in my garden impossible.  I thought it was just this community but when I went down the mountain to a nearby town, they were mobbing people there too!  I've also had to spray bug barrier throughout my other home on Long Island, where I now have wolf spiders along with their eggs (eek), I saw one in my bedroom and could not sleep there for a week!  They are hairy, with warning stripes on their legs, black and grey (to warn others of being poisonous) and I haven't had these in a decade or so.  I sprayed so much bug barrier to get rid of them that my throat and nose were burning!  I just hope I dont get any centipedes later on, because I haven't had them in a long time either.....it's the combo of a warm wet winter followed by a warm wet spring and now this hot humid weather that has caused this population explosion of bugs.  I wish all the birds I get in both gardens would eat them all up, but they seem to be content singing and taking baths in my pond!  We also have a 50% reduction in monarch butterflies (an important pollinator) because of pesticides killing their favorite food, milkweed, as well as the changing climate.  But now everyone is planting milkweed along the roads and highways, so maybe they will have a comeback?

[ORH_wxman]

On 6/23/2020 at 10:58 AM, ORH_wxman said:

We've slowed down recently from the reverse dipole.....2020 now trails 2019, 2012, 2010, and 2007. Though not by huge amounts, so a top 3 melt season is still very much possible. We'll see if the area losses pick back up as the reverse dipole weakens.

We have the final June numbers in....here's the breakdown of what the minimum in 2020 would be if we followed the same path as every other year:

 

 

So if we followed the same path that 2019 followed after 6/30, we would finish at 3 million sq km of sea ice area. The post-2007 average path followed is 2.78 million sq km which is what I will use as my baseline.

However, there are two factors that will cause me to lower this baseline a bit. First, is that we had a 340k(!!) loss on 7/1....and second, we have a very hostile pattern for the ice. We're currently into a nuclear dipole pattern which would continue to assault the ice for the next week. This will help increase melting and melt ponds while the sun angle is still pretty high in the arctic.

 

Normally, I would put the chances of passing 2012's minimum of 2.228 million sq km at close to 0% based simply on the chart above. But I'll give it an outside shot of happening this year given the current pattern and the huge loss on 7/1.

 

My prediction will be for minimum sea ice area in 2020 is 2.5 million sq km +/- 300k. A minimum of 2.5 million sq km would be 3rd lowest. The top two are 2012 (2.228) and 2016 (2.463).

Sea ice extent is a little more fickle since it can depend on compaction vs area which is very straight forward. But for the minimum daily NSIDC sea ice extent, I'll go with 3.8 million sq km +/- 500k. I use larger error bars on the extent due to the much higher standard deviation.

 

[csnavywx]

EOSDIS Worldview looking 2012-ish with the very widespread melt ponding on virtually the entire basin. CAB/CAA are being especially hard hit. Cross-posting this video from Neven's forum of a video uploaded by GAWLab at Alert:

 

 

[csnavywx]

I suspected that whopping May dipole did more damage than was originally appreciated. The timing was just close enough to the solstice for sun angle to really matter and there was clearly some deterioration in the snow pack when it did cross. Perhaps more importantly, it destroyed the tropospheric low-level cold pool that is typically still present at that time of year. With the sun angle already high, it could not regenerate through clear-sky longwave radiation, only mainly through recirculation and diabatic processes. Surface temps never did fall/recover after that, despite some decent +PV action afterwards.  We're now seeing ponding cover virtually the entire basin, with no "safe spots" like we've seen the past few years, where melt would start later. Also unlike past years, the strongest area drops recently have been driven by melting and losses the basin proper and not on the periphery, which is actually higher this time around. In fact, the only thing keeping this above 2012 right now are the peripheral areas, which have been running above the 2010s average lately. 

Much like that year, the rot is widespread and no real snowcover remains. There's more ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi, but even favorable recent years have seen that melt out rapidly in late July and early August, so I don't expect that to survive. Combined with the very poor state of the pack on the Eurasian side of the Arctic (which has been absolutely hammered this year), we do have a real shot at the record. Of course, a strong sustained +PV pattern can always swoop in and save it.

[csnavywx]

2020 now lowest for both extent and area. The pack has been getting absolutely hammered for the past week -- pretty much everywhere. There's still some area/extent left in the Hudson (moreso than most recent years), so 2020 could build up a pretty sizeable lead over the next week or two, which would put it in position to be competitive with 2012's turbo August melt. The hole that is being blown open on the Laptev/ESS side is getting big and getting big early. The difference has been that the Beaufort and Chukchi look to be in halfway decent shape right now. We'll have to see if any of that can survive, but the experience of the post-2007 years has been for most of that to melt out.

[bdgwx]

I'm still trying to learn the ins and outs of Arctic sea ice. I've gotten a pretty good understanding of some of the things that negatively affect the ice. 

What was the pattern like in July and August of 2012?

[csnavywx]

21 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I'm still trying to learn the ins and outs of Arctic sea ice. I've gotten a pretty good understanding of some of the things that negatively affect the ice. 

What was the pattern like in July and August of 2012?

 

[csnavywx]

Big dipole to start the month, relaxed a few days later and then a monster Greenland ridge centered around the 12th. That pattern relaxed into a strong +PV for a while with a weaker dipole event to end the month. GAC strikes at the end of the first week of August and by that point is able to sweep away most of the low-extent ice. Overall the first half is dominated by storminess, with a return to Greenland ridging and a dipole-like pattern to finish the month.

Most of the damage is done with the early June and early July dipole events (with the mid-July Greenland ridge pattern no doubt helping export).

[bdgwx]

16 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Big dipole to start the month, relaxed a few days later and then a monster Greenland ridge centered around the 12th. That pattern relaxed into a strong +PV for a while with a weaker dipole event to end the month. GAC strikes at the end of the first week of August and by that point is able to sweep away most of the low-extent ice. Overall the first half is dominated by storminess, with a return to Greenland ridging and a dipole-like pattern to finish the month.

Most of the damage is done with the early June and early July dipole events (with the mid-July Greenland ridge pattern no doubt helping export).

Gotcha. Thanks. That's helpful. I try to lurk as much as I can on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum. Sea ice is such a complicated beast to understand.

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

July 2012 started with a big dipole that faded by the end of the first week or so. There were two big Greenland ridge events centered around the 12 and 28th as well. It turned notably more stormy after the June/July dipole events, but by then, the damage had largely been done wrt albedo and ponding -- and the Greenland ridge events allowed some damage to be done to the CAB.

This year has had a cooler June (especially the first half -- the last week not so much). The big difference was that the first big block came in mid-May this year, dwarfing anything any previous year has seen and jump starting melting early. That may have given a big enough headstart to offset an otherwise ho-hum start to June. Now that this year is acting very blocky, it has a legit shot at keeping up.

I think we'll want to see a big CAA/Baffin or greenland high at some point to have a legit chance. The ice in the Beaufort/CAA is lagging 2012 significantly and the high rotting on the Asian side of the CAB is keeping the ice flowing toward the Beaufort. The Laptev and adjacent part of ESS is trying to make up for it, but I don't trust counting on huge losses close to the pole as we get into August....2012 had an amazing advancement of open water via the Beaufort/Chukchi/ESS sector.

 

 

[forkyfork]

On 2/6/2020 at 5:11 AM, Weatherdude88 said:

Northern hemisphere snow cover is well below average this winter.

 

The snow water equivalent (the total volume) is significantly above the 1998-2011 average.

 

The higher latitude regions that have snow cover, have a lot of it.

 

As we approach the end of the 2019/2020 freezing season, we may have more ice and snow volume, in harder to melt areas at higher latitudes, than all years in the previous decade.

There has been significant focus on the lack of snow extent cover, at lower latitude and easier to melt regions, even though we have near record snow/ice volume in the more difficult to melt regions.

We may have an extended 2019/2020 freezing season. The 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice melting season may get off to a slow start.

 

[LibertyBell]

Looks like Antarctic ice melt is accelerating too, based on latest research around 3x faster over the past decade than the decade before.  Interesting times are ahead ;-)