LibertyBell Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/24/2020 at 10:05 AM, SnoSki14 said: These are temporary sea ice gains. The ice will collapse just as quickly once the vortex collapses in late winter. when the sea ice up there is doing well our winters suck. so i vote for more sea ice loss up there so we can actually have a real winter down here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 when the sea ice up there is doing well our winters suck. so i vote for more sea ice loss up there so we can actually have a real winter down here. I hope that is sarcasm...Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 On 1/26/2020 at 8:47 AM, Orangeburgwx said: I hope that is sarcasm... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk It is lol... still I'm hoping for an early summer because my allergies get really bad in rainy/mild weather. Very warm to hot and not humid is far better for my health. We have weeds growing here and there are daffodils coming up out of the ground. So for me not to be medicated on antihistamines I have to have cold/snow or cold/dry or warm to hot and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 can't wait for him to disappear in late summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 it's not going to do that and you'll scurry away when it fails to happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Where will it stop? Nobody knows. Ice is still on the rise. An arctic winter like this wasn’t supposed to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 did you not notice the record warmth everywhere else 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Where will it stop? Nobody knows. Ice is still on the rise. An arctic winter like this wasn’t supposed to happen. Who is saying that daily or annual sea ice extent would only monotonically decrease? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Who is saying that daily or annual sea ice extent would only monotonically decrease? it's their favorite strawman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Who is saying that daily or annual sea ice extent would only monotonically decrease? Peter Wadhams ScD, is professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge best known for his work on sea ice predicted in 2014 that that summer sea ice would disappear by 2020. We’ve got a lot of work to do if that prediction is going to work out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Peter Wadhams ScD, is professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge best known for his work on sea ice predicted in 2014 that that summer sea ice would disappear by 2020. We’ve got a lot of work to do if that prediction is going to work out. we're collectively responsible for an outlier prediction? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 31 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Peter Wadhams ScD, is professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge best known for his work on sea ice predicted in 2014 that that summer sea ice would disappear by 2020. We’ve got a lot of work to do if that prediction is going to work out. Gotcha. Outlier predictions like those from Wedhams are overwhelmingly rejected by mainstream science. The consensus timeline for the first ice free summer in the Arctic region is about 2040-2060 with moderate to high emissions scenarios. Note that "ice-free" means < 1e6 km^2. The disappearance of sea ice altogether would likely take hundreds of years even under an unmitigated emissions scenario. Regarding daily and annual sea ice extents...it's "supposed" to ebb and flow like this. Its best to stick to reputable sources for climate predictions or predictions of any kind in any discipline of science really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 46 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Gotcha. Outlier predictions like those from Wedhams are overwhelmingly rejected by mainstream science. The consensus timeline for the first ice free summer in the Arctic region is about 2040-2060 with moderate to high emissions scenarios. Note that "ice-free" means < 1e6 km^2. The disappearance of sea ice altogether would likely take hundreds of years even under an unmitigated emissions scenario. Regarding daily and annual sea ice extents...it's "supposed" to ebb and flow like this. Its best to stick to reputable sources for climate predictions or predictions of any kind in any discipline of science really. Not only is the arctic not going to be ice free this summer, it’s making gains. Not small gains either. It’s obvious the climate isn’t in the same state it was 40-50 years ago. No argument there. The doomsday predictions are what I struggle to understand. The fear mongering. I guess that’s what I don’t like about the other side of the argument. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Gotcha. Outlier predictions like those from Wedhams are overwhelmingly rejected by mainstream science. The consensus timeline for the first ice free summer in the Arctic region is about 2040-2060 with moderate to high emissions scenarios. Note that "ice-free" means You would have shorter ice free periods in September well before that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted February 6, 2020 Share Posted February 6, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 3:35 PM, WarmNose said: Not only is the arctic not going to be ice free this summer, it’s making gains. Not small gains either. It’s obvious the climate isn’t in the same state it was 40-50 years ago. No argument there. The doomsday predictions are what I struggle to understand. The fear mongering. I guess that’s what I don’t like about the other side of the argument. I don't equate an ice-free summer regarding Arctic sea ice extents to anything even remotely close to a doomsday scenario though. FWIW the "official" IPCC prediction can be seen in figure TS.17 of the AR5 WGI report. The best guess is about 2045 for RCP8.5, 2065 for RCP6.0, 2080 for RCP4.5, and never for RCP2.6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 Artic ice cap extent of 15% or more for Feb.9th was 14.629m km², an increase of 66,000 km² from the 8th. One week gain from the 2nd-9th was 306,000 km², that is pretty decent for the new millennium, and good enough for 8th highest for the date since 2000. Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 3:53 PM, bdgwx said: Gotcha. Outlier predictions like those from Wedhams are overwhelmingly rejected by mainstream science. The consensus timeline for the first ice free summer in the Arctic region is about 2040-2060 with moderate to high emissions scenarios. Note that "ice-free" means < 1e6 km^2. The disappearance of sea ice altogether would likely take hundreds of years even under an unmitigated emissions scenario. Regarding daily and annual sea ice extents...it's "supposed" to ebb and flow like this. Its best to stick to reputable sources for climate predictions or predictions of any kind in any discipline of science really. what are the projections for Antarctica? They just recorded their highest temp ever recorded and accelerating ice melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: what are the projections for Antarctica? They just recorded their highest temp ever recorded and accelerating ice melt. Good question. This can be found in IPCC AR5 WGI figure 12.28. For the summer minimum not much is expected to change through 2030. In fact, we might even expect a slight increase possibly lasting until mid century until a regime of more consistent declines begin down there. And the detailed breakdown for Arctic summer minimum is in IPCC AR5 WGI TS figure 17. The only scenario that gets to near 100% melt out before 2100 is RCP8.5. But even then a very small patch of ice is predicted to cling the northern tip of Greenland. And, of course, winter ice will likely persistent for a very long time...well past 2100. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2020 Share Posted February 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, bdgwx said: Good question. This can be found in IPCC AR5 WGI figure 12.28. For the summer minimum not much is expected to change through 2030. In fact, we might even expect a slight increase possibly lasting until mid century until a regime of more consistent declines begin down there. And the detailed breakdown for Arctic summer minimum is in IPCC AR5 WGI TS figure 17. The only scenario that gets to near 100% melt out before 2100 is RCP8.5. But even then a very small patch of ice is predicted to cling the northern tip of Greenland. And, of course, winter ice will likely persistent for a very long time...well past 2100. Thanks! I saw some very interesting predictions for temp patterns going forward. Basically, we are warming from the pole "downwards" in that the greatest positive anomalies are occurring the further northward you go. Northern VT is projected to be about 10 degrees F warmer by 2070? At 40 N latitude on the east coast this is projected to be about 5.5 degrees F warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 We probably hit our maximum (unless something changes), sea ice from 2/11 to 2/12 grew by just 3000 km² to 14.701m km².Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 DMI volume is a bit suspect....I'd prob use PIOMAS and then definitely Cryosat2 when that updates more fully later this spring. PIOMAS has volume currently 5th lowest. Still low, but not dead last like DMI. 2017 is pretty far alone in last place at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted February 13, 2020 Share Posted February 13, 2020 The Arctic Oscillation is once again predicted to top 6 by the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 export pattern for the next week + 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 It has been so cold up north this winter, the Bering Sea ice extent is actually within the normal range of the 1981-2010 median. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, lee59 said: It has been so cold up north this winter, the Bering Sea ice extent is actually within the normal range of the 1981-2010 median. Yeah 2012 looked pretty normal too at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 26, 2020 Share Posted February 26, 2020 On 2/3/2020 at 3:53 PM, bdgwx said: Gotcha. Outlier predictions like those from Wedhams are overwhelmingly rejected by mainstream science. The consensus timeline for the first ice free summer in the Arctic region is about 2040-2060 with moderate to high emissions scenarios. Note that "ice-free" means < 1e6 km^2. The disappearance of sea ice altogether would likely take hundreds of years even under an unmitigated emissions scenario. Regarding daily and annual sea ice extents...it's "supposed" to ebb and flow like this. Its best to stick to reputable sources for climate predictions or predictions of any kind in any discipline of science really. 2050 sounds about right. I think most are getting more worried about the Antarctic because of the implications of a rapid ice melt there. My question is- do we really need an outlier winter like this to get ice growth in the Arctic regions? Very few winters are going to have a + AO like this winter has had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 29, 2020 Share Posted February 29, 2020 On 2/19/2020 at 12:48 PM, forkyfork said: export pattern for the next week + from the sea ice forum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted March 1, 2020 Share Posted March 1, 2020 Definitely some export going on there. We are now at that time of year when the max could occur at anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 This record +AO pattern was more like something we saw around 1990. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Previous studies, led by University of Washington scientist Ignatius Rigor (e.g., Rigor et al., 2002), suggest that a positive winter phase of the Arctic Oscillation favors low sea ice extent the subsequent September. Wind patterns “flush” old, thick ice out of the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait and promote the production of thin ice along the Eurasian coast that is especially prone to melting out in summer. However, in recent years, this relationship has not been as clear (Stroeve et al., 2011). The potential effects this winter’s positive AO on the summer evolution of ice extent and the September 2020 minimum bears watching. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 6, 2020 Share Posted March 6, 2020 another strong fram export pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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