Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[Bhs1975]

This gives a clear picture of whats going on.

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[Orangeburgwx]

This gives a clear picture of whats going on.






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2016...

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[etudiant]

1 hour ago, BillT said:

multi year old ice IS increasing.......https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/02/18/huge-increase-in-oldthick-arctic-sea-ice/

Careful about that, that was in 2015. 

The Arctic ice is in continuous flux, rotating around the pole with the older ice getting dumped down the Fram Strait between Greenland and Iceland.

Very little Arctic ice is permanently fixed to the shores, mainly it gradually circulates around the pole. That is why the north coast of Iceland is littered with driftwood originating in Siberia.

Afaik, there is nothing like the really old (100,000 to 2,000,000 years old) ice found in Antarctica in the north polar ice. That ice is all sea ice, totally vulnerable to a warm summer melt and it is not very useful to focus on the bits that are 3-5 years old, they just reflect whether the last few summers have been warmer or colder than usual.

[Bhs1975]

2016...

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So what. The ice is still losing old ice.


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[BillT]

the posts above show the it is NOT being melted by warmer air it shows ocean currents moving it around constantly and moving some south where it does indeed melt.i was aware my link was from a few yeas ago but it shows today there is more older ice than there was in 2011 something not possible if warmer air is melting the older ice.....because it is supposed to be warmer now than in 2011

[Bhs1975]

multi year old ice IS increasing.......https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/02/18/huge-increase-in-oldthick-arctic-sea-ice/

And you’re trying to make you’re point with a tiny area of the graph showing a tiny gain in 3 yr ice only?




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[Bhs1975]

When the blue ocean events start it’s not going to be every summer. So when there is ice in the summer are you deniers going to say “hey look the ice cover increased it’s all good now”

 

 

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[superjames1992]

We are running above the 2010s average for sea ice extent right now (above all years this decade except 2011 and 2014, from what I can tell), which is encouraging after the slow start to the refreezing season.  I don’t think it much matters for next summer’s melt, but it sure beats still being at the second lowest extent on record, like we were at minimum this summer.  Of course, 2011 was followed up by the record-setting 2012 melt, so it may not mean much, as I said.

[rclab]

37 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said:

When the blue ocean events start it’s not going to be every summer. So when there is ice in the summer are you deniers going to say “hey look the ice cover increased it’s all good now”

 

 

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It seems we are on track for an all blue polar summer ocean. How will the global atmosphere respond with a 24/7 multi month sun shining down on that ice free polar ocean? Im sure I’d rather not find out, if it is any way avoidable. As always....

[Bhs1975]

It seems we are on track for an all blue polar summer ocean. How will the global atmosphere respond with a 24/7 multi month sun shining down on that ice free polar ocean? Im sure I’d rather not find out, if it is any way avoidable. As always....

 

Not without a rapid drop to zero emissions and it’s not looking good so far.

 

 

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[bdgwx]

According to NSIDC...

For 2019 the NH (Arctic) ended with an annual mean of 10.186e6 km^2 of extent. This is the 2nd lowest after 2016 which ended with 10.163e6.

For 2019 the SH (Antarctic) ended with an annual mean of 10.826e6 km^2 of extent. This is the 2nd lowest after 2017 which ended with 10.749e6.

[bdgwx]

So if I remember correctly some of the recent computer modeling studies showed that the 2020's might be characterized as period of stalling out on the declines before picking back up again in the 2030's. What do you guys think? Are we going to see the same dramatic declines or will there be a hiatus? I think I'm more in favor of a moderation in the decline rates. But, it's not lost on me that those who have made similar conservative predictions in the past have gotten burned. So I'm prepared to be wrong.

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, bdgwx said:

So if I remember correctly some of the recent computer modeling studies showed that the 2020's might be characterized as period of stalling out on the declines before picking back up again in the 2030's. What do you guys think? Are we going to see the same dramatic declines or will there be a hiatus? I think I'm more in favor of a moderation in the decline rates. But, it's not lost on me that those who have made similar conservative predictions in the past have gotten burned. So I'm prepared to be wrong.

My guess based on what's happened from 2000 onward and the climate papers I've read is that a general decline will continue at varying rates. The average rate might slow somewhat from the most rapid average rate seen during the last 10 years, but the 2012 minimum extent figure will be surpassed during the 2020s, and maybe more than once. Arctic warming will continue with aggressive feedbacks. I don't see a plausible mechanism that might materially slow the rate at which it is warming right now, though maybe others can identify one if it exists.

[bluewave]

Record low Arctic sea ice extent for the Chukchi Sea in 2019.

 

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

My guess based on what's happened from 2000 onward and the climate papers I've read is that a general decline will continue at varying rates. The average rate might slow somewhat from the most rapid average rate seen during the last 10 years, but the 2012 minimum extent figure will be surpassed during the 2020s, and maybe more than once. Arctic warming will continue with aggressive feedbacks. I don't see a plausible mechanism that might materially slow the rate at which it is warming right now, though maybe others can identify one if it exists.

I think it's accelerating and will continue to accelerate as we will see the Antarctic ice start to melt at a faster pace too- there are hints that might already be underway.  Australia might be uninhabitable within a few decades.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it's accelerating and will continue to accelerate as we will see the Antarctic ice start to melt at a faster pace too- there are hints that might already be underway.  Australia might be uninhabitable within a few decades.

 

 

I agree concerning Antarctic ice melt accelerating. I was focused on the Arctic. Australia remains on a bad climate and bad policy course (still expanding coal production). It remains uncertain whether this season's historic fire season will prove to be a political game-changer there.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

I agree concerning Antarctic ice melt accelerating. I was focused on the Arctic. Australia remains on a bad climate and bad policy course (still expanding coal production).

They have a very conservative government.  Do you think whats going on there is also influencing our weather (note the record warm 90 degree SST just north of Australia.)

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

They have a very conservative government.  Do you think whats going on there is also influencing our weather (note the record warm 90 degree SST just north of Australia.)

 

I suspect that what's going on in Australia is a product of larger developments (including the steady expansion of SSTA changes in the Pacific) that is increasing the MJO's stay in the Maritime Continent phases. That outcome further tilts the probabilities toward a warmer winter outcome than would otherwise be the case.

[bdgwx]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it's accelerating and will continue to accelerate as we will see the Antarctic ice start to melt at a faster pace too- there are hints that might already be underway.  Australia might be uninhabitable within a few decades.

 

 

It's interesting what is happening in the SH as well. According to the IPCC the expectation was for mostly flat trends and possibly even an increase through the 2020's. So to see the SH decline and even drop to record lows tells us that at least some sea ice predictions have underestimated the decline down there too. It seems as though there is a long history of sea ice predictions being too conservative; sometimes shockingly so. For example, back in 2001 and inferring from a graphic in AR3 the IPCC predicted that NH sea ice extent wouldn't drop below an annual mean of 10.5e6 until about 2040. It first happened in 2007 and then 6 times after that including the last 4 years in a row. So by taking a more conservative stance and hinting that the declines may moderate in the 2020's I'm doing so fully aware that I could end up getting burned. But I also understand that trendline reversion is a powerful concept and I'm also trying to stay pragmatic and not come across as overly alarmist either.

[bluewave]

2nd warmest year for the Arctic behind 2016.

 

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, bdgwx said:

It's interesting what is happening in the SH as well. According to the IPCC the expectation was for mostly flat trends and possibly even an increase through the 2020's. So to see the SH decline and even drop to record lows tells us that at least some sea ice predictions have underestimated the decline down there too. It seems as though there is a long history of sea ice predictions being too conservative; sometimes shockingly so. For example, back in 2001 and inferring from a graphic in AR3 the IPCC predicted that NH sea ice extent wouldn't drop below an annual mean of 10.5e6 until about 2040. It first happened in 2007 and then 6 times after that including the last 4 years in a row. So by taking a more conservative stance and hinting that the declines may moderate in the 2020's I'm doing so fully aware that I could end up getting burned. But I also understand that trendline reversion is a powerful concept and I'm also trying to stay pragmatic and not come across as overly alarmist either.

I'm sensing that most scientists feel that the error was on the conservative side too.  I've noticed the predictions of sea level rise have gotten higher and we're already seeing sunny side flooding on a regular basis in Florida and South Carolina and even on the south shore of Long Island.  Aren't there parts of the Florida Keys that have been underwater for 3 months now?

 

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that what's going on in Australia is a product of larger developments (including the steady expansion of SSTA changes in the Pacific) that is increasing the MJO's stay in the Maritime Continent phases. That outcome further tilts the probabilities toward a warmer winter outcome than would otherwise be the case.

It's interesting how the changes in the Pacific are causing all these changes all over the globe.  They have a multiyear drought going on in Australia, very similar to what's been happening in the SW.

 

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's interesting how the changes in the Pacific are causing all these changes all over the globe.  They have a multiyear drought going on in Australia, very similar to what's been happening in the SW.

 

As the world's largest ocean, most of the world's oceanic heat content is there. That's why what happens in the Pacific region can have global consequences. Extreme developments in the Atlantic can also have a global impact, at times, but the Atlantic's overall influence is notably less than that of the Pacific.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

As the world's largest ocean, most of the world's oceanic heat content is there. That's why what happens in the Pacific region can have global consequences. Extreme developments in the Atlantic can also have a global impact, at times, but the Atlantic's overall influence is notably less than that of the Pacific.

I see the effects are different in different places- here on the east coast we've seen a rapid rise in relative humidity and annual precip totals.  Longer allergy seasons and higher insect populations (and the bad kind of insects like mosquitoes.)

And the changes to the ocean are also destroying the fragile marine ecosystem, this is having massive consequences which will only get worse.

 

[superjames1992]

On 1/3/2020 at 5:12 PM, bluewave said:

2nd warmest year for the Arctic behind 2016.

 

I'm surprised 2012 isn't higher.

[bdgwx]

Here's a pretty good (and lengthy) article talking about Arctic sea ice and the odds of seeing an ice-free summer.

https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/when-will-the-arctic-see-its-first-ice-free-summer/

Bottom line...around 2050 is the 50/50 point especially if carbon emissions take a more middle-of-the-road trajectory being neither abated aggressively or allowed to grow unmitigated...basecially RCP 4.5.

[etudiant]

On 1/5/2020 at 1:09 PM, superjames1992 said:

I'm surprised 2012 isn't higher.

Thought the ice melt was accelerated that year by a significant storm, so it is actually somewhat a cautionary input.

Combine such a storm with a really warm ocean influx, it would set dramatic new lows.

[LithiaWx]

On 1/11/2020 at 4:55 PM, etudiant said:

Thought the ice melt was accelerated that year by a significant storm, so it is actually somewhat a cautionary input.

Combine such a storm with a really warm ocean influx, it would set dramatic new lows.

Yep,  big August dipole too. 

[SnoSki14]

These are temporary sea ice gains. The ice will collapse just as quickly once the vortex collapses in late winter. 

[bdgwx]

Sea ice in the SH is doing relatively well too.