FallsLake Posted July 31, 2019 Share Posted July 31, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Firstly, I'm not sure the social-media community in this particular web destination really IS of the 'wanting/wishing' ilk ... I'll just expand on that a little more... but it was really a 'just in caser' Imho, should 2019 somehow by excruciating number crunching ( less than obviously ) fall short of 2012 ... was it really worth all the effort and writing...and annotated graphs and monitoring and ..well, basically obsession? We are not "making sure that happens" - by plying that effort. I can understand statistical accuracy but I wonder if the real motivation for doing so lurks behind that excuse, because the bigger, longer term consequence of what the world faces is so dire right now that to do so ...could not be any more futile. If it falls short, nothing's different. Why then? The longer vision, we're still f*!&ed folks. As far as that article... There's a lot of complexity that is not really discussed in that... In a general scope and concept it's not "un-clad" exactly ...But, there are ... synergistic effects that are 'emergent properties' and aren't really predictable... More over, those can have secondary ...tertiary spontaneities too... The blocking idea can come from other sources: First, ... extinguishing planetary wave/dispersion into higher altitudes. Think of it as where warm advection plumes go to die. The vagaries of R-wave undulations over time, can create episodes where/when warm fluxes cause/contribute to tropospheric blocking .. These are ephemeral in nature... If they persist ( causally ) it's the underpinning pattern that's supporting it.. The NAO domain is a good teleconnector to exemplify this.. It can fluctuate at intraweekly time scales because of this sort of transient phenomenon... And is why seasonal predictions for that teleconnector - heh... good luck. Second ... blocking anywhere from that can happen in any era. Third, ... it is not abundantly clear that GW would in fact promote more of that to happen, because ... it's all still based upon gradients. Without gradients...no air movement exists at all. From that very fundamental requirement of physics, working together with gravity over a curved surface... without the first initial requirement of changing PV=NRT from one point to another...not of this, in fact, this conversation, can happen.... Why is that important? Beyond the obvious ... the arctic also is said to be differentiating warmer/faster than everywhere else... Is that true in the middle troposphere? If so... than the gradient is not necessary increasing because of GW... but, I suspect it is anyway... The arctic is just trying to catch up ...and in the interim ...we are witnessing extraordinary jet speed anomalies and have been now over the recent decades. Flights between NY and London...also across the expanse of the Pacific have registered historically fast ground-based velocity speeds in that time. This is happening because the warmer equator/sub-tropical latitudes are storing more water vapor ( concomitant with the GW ...) and fiddling with the math ... that is keeping heights slightly elevated; pressing ( as it were) against seasonal nadirs in the winter. Even if they are warming...they are not warming fast enough to compensate for the ambient steepening of that gradient that exists between ~ 35N and the 60 N girdle around the hemisphere. This creates the hurried velocity saturation being observed... Lastly ... folks are forgetting that we are still moving through the 11, 22 and 300 year temporal super-position of the Max(min) solar. Those times have been correlated strongly with -AO tendencies... That makes it incredible difficult to untangle 'how much' of blocking is a result of warming arctic ( as it relates to GW ) - vs how much was destined to take place as this solar expectation has arrived and we transpire through... I suspect like everything...there's shared forcing there... ** The gulf stream stuff and the AMOC - that's a whole 'nother ball of wax. The warming in the previous ... probably going back to the early 1980s is when it really started... has been adding fresh water to the surface of the Atlantic... That's been accelerating particularly in the latter half of that multi-decadal time span. At some critical threshold the specific gravity has changed too much...and the buoyancy gained in the acquiesce saline waters (at a given temperature).. slows and/or can stops the sinking water process... No sink = no drawing surface water N = break down of the Gulf Stream. This was theorized back then, too... We are ( more likely so ) now seeing this being measured in the environment... Altering the transport of warm surface waters to higher latitudes certainly would effect circulation tendencies through the various meteorological circuitry over time...and time being a variable in climate - there we go... It's a mind boggling array of countermanding forces and whatever is left after canceling out ...dictates the systemic character. Thanks for the great response!! I'm actually coping this post for future reference. Your probably right about the underlying reason for the article. And we very well could be f*!&ed. But (if we want to very selfish and shortsighted), if the arctic is going to hell we might as well score some good winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 1, 2019 Share Posted August 1, 2019 At least for the time being, the harshest melting conditions are focused over Greenland. NSIDC had a very small drop yesterday of 44k down to 6.192. It maintains a narrow lead over 2012 of 176k which was at 6.368. August 1-11, 2012 experienced the record breaking decline down to 5.021. This year would require an average daily decline rate of 106k to keep pace by August 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 1, 2019 Author Share Posted August 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: At least for the time being, the harshest melting conditions are focused over Greenland. NSIDC had a very small drop yesterday of 44k down to 6.192. It maintains a narrow lead over 2012 of 176k which was at 6.368. August 1-11, 2012 experienced the record breaking decline down to 5.021. This year would require an average daily decline rate of 106k to keep pace by August 11th. 2012 has expanded it's area lead to 210k....the best chance for 2019 is if the Laptev can retreat further than 2012. That's the weak spot when comparing year over year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 2, 2019 Share Posted August 2, 2019 Zack Labe is reporting that July set the new lowest NSIDC average extent for the month. The only months not to set a new record low since 2016 so far have been ASO. 9 new monthly records in 3 years shows how much the Arctic has warmed. https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1156938182832693249 New Record* -- 2019 averaged the lowest #Arctic sea extent in the satellite-era for the month of July. It was 1,880,000 km² below the 1981-2010 average. Data from @NSIDC https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1157122835409596416 Updated record low #Arctic sea ice extent months - @NSIDC data (satellite-era from 1978/1979) -------------- 2018 : January 2018 : February 2017 : March 2019 : April 2016 : May 2016 : June 2019 : July 2012 : August 2012 : September 2012 : October 2016 : November 2016 : December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 2, 2019 Share Posted August 2, 2019 I like the new NSIDC sea ice extent chart. You can add the ±2σ band to the display now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 12 hours ago, bdgwx said: I like the new NSIDC sea ice extent chart. You can add the ±2σ band to the display now. But I don't like the new colors because I was so used to the old version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 On 8/1/2019 at 9:25 AM, ORH_wxman said: 2012 has expanded it's area lead to 210k....the best chance for 2019 is if the Laptev can retreat further than 2012. That's the weak spot when comparing year over year. The good news is that the ice hasn't been able to beat the last record low from 7 years ago. Which could mean an ice free summer Arctic probably won't happen until the end of the 21st century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 Large -299k drop in NSIDC extent over the last 2 days. This puts 2019 +259 k ahead of 2012 as of August 2nd. 2019 needs to maintain an average daily decline rate of 97k over the next 9 days to hold even with 2012 by the 11th. NSIDC extent 8-2-19.....5.893 8-2-12.....6.152 8-11-12....5.021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 New models showing more arctic ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2019 Share Posted August 4, 2019 May through July set new Arctic records for warmth, surface pressure, and 500 mb heights. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2019 Share Posted August 4, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: May through July set new Arctic records for warmth, surface pressure, and 500 mb heights. Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4, 2019 Share Posted August 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Source? NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis monthly means. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 We are entering the big decline week when 2012 pulled ahead of all other years. This was during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. NSIDC extent Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... 5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768 8-6......5.632 8-7......5.467 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray-Wolf Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 i think many folk give GAC12 too much credit for the losses over Aug that year ( sure it had impact) but the ice was already pretty messed before it struck? Todays ice is pretty messed up so let's see what happens eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 3 hours ago, bluewave said: We are entering the big decline week when 2012 pulled ahead of all other years. This was during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. NSIDC extent Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... 5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768 8-6......5.632 8-7......5.467 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021 Wouldn't be shocked if we fell 300-400k behind by the end of that. There's some opportunity for catch up next week if that ridging shows up, but it does look like we'll slip solidly back into 2nd place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 On 8/4/2019 at 1:06 PM, bluewave said: NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis monthly means. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/timeseries/ thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Check out the arctic ice melt pattern at the end of the 06z GFS http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Large 166k daily drop in NSIDC extent. We are entering the big decline week when 2012 pulled ahead of all other years. This was during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. NSIDC extent Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632 8-7......5.467 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021 No let up in sight for the continuing record dipole pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 It looks cool over the central CAB the next few days at least -- before that small low gets nearly smashed into oblivion by the developing blocks and wave break over the Npac. The strong push of warm advection from the Russian side will keep this year in contention next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 2019 needs an average NSIDC daily decline rate of 98k next 5 days to be even with 2012 on the 11th. NSIDC extent Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.511......+121k lead 8-7......5.467 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Large 122k daily drop in NSIDC extent . 2019 needs an average daily decline rate of 92k next 4 days to remain even with 2012 by the 11th. NSIDC extent Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 On 8/6/2019 at 11:09 AM, csnavywx said: It looks cool over the central CAB the next few days at least -- before that small low gets nearly smashed into oblivion by the developing blocks and wave break over the Npac. The strong push of warm advection from the Russian side will keep this year in contention next week. You know ... not to make light of this ...but it's funny how we are proverbially bargaining with cumulus cloud shadows to prevent ice loss ... heh. But yeah, it's actually true - when we are teetering at the edge of the 2012 comparison...that closing margin does get sensitive to intra-weekly perturbations passing through the the domain. Fascinating actually - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 We've fallen 350k behind 2012 on area despite extent still being very close. We're probably going to need a big compaction pattern to keep extent in the running through the end of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: Areas losses in 2012 really slowed after August 10th. So I suspect 2019 will narrow the area gap in the next week to ten days. 2016 was behind this year and almost caught up to 2012 at the end of the season. Why do we think 2019 will act more like 2016 than 2012 after August 10th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Why do we think 2019 will act more like 2016 than 2012 after August 10th? the pattern does get worse starting friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 8, 2019 Author Share Posted August 8, 2019 37 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the pattern does get worse starting friday 2016 looks like it had a lot more easy pickings after 8/10 for losses than this year. If parry stait melts out then that could add some to 2019 but 2016 looked easier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 NSIDC extent held steady on August 8th. 2019 has fallen behind 2012 by 134 k during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. 2019 needs an average daily loss rate of 123k next few days to hold even with 2012 by the 11th. NSIDC extent Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead 8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 Do y'all have some access to extra-double, top -secret data that is different than this ...? Cuz just from where I'm sitting... 2012 is getting it's ass handed to it - I dunno.. you tell me. Yeah some 'gap' closure there but t-heh... that integral ain't supporting any kind of angst that we'll have trouble ousting 2012 in this 'race' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 9, 2019 Author Share Posted August 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Do y'all have some access to extra-double, top -secret data that is different than this ...? Cuz just from where I'm sitting... 2012 is getting it's ass handed to it - I dunno.. you tell me. Yeah some 'gap' closer there but t-heh... that integral ain't supporting any kind of angst that we'll have trouble ousting 2012 in this 'race' IMS is a deferent source than JAXA or NSIDC and it looks like that graph doesn't have any data beyond late July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted August 9, 2019 Share Posted August 9, 2019 9 hours ago, bluewave said: NSIDC extent held steady on August 8th. 2019 has fallen behind 2012 by 134 k during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. 2019 needs an average daily loss rate of 123k next few days to hold even with 2012 by the 11th. The weather will determine if 2019 can catch up with 2012 again. But this was the period when 2012 pulled ahead of all other years. NSIDC extent Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead 8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021 When I go to the NSIDC website I get different numbers that are higher for both years so I'm confused. I'm using the Charctic tool to view the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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