lookingnorth Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 I was looking at the GFS and it shows a lot of lower 500 mb heights over the Arctic Ocean in the next couple of weeks. Will that slow the rate of melting a lot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2019 Author Share Posted July 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, lookingnorth said: I was looking at the GFS and it shows a lot of lower 500 mb heights over the Arctic Ocean in the next couple of weeks. Will that slow the rate of melting a lot? Yes, most likely....we've already seen some slowing the last few days. I'm not sure this year will be able to keep pace with 2012 going forward with that pattern. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 127K daily drop on NSIDC extent. Continuing to run very close to 2011 and 2012 as of July 15th. The area is around 2012 on this date. 7-15-19....7.676 7-15-12....7.705 7-15-11....7.609 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 16, 2019 Share Posted July 16, 2019 On 7/12/2019 at 1:40 PM, ORH_wxman said: Here's an animation comparing 2019 to 2012 on this date. I think the key to getting a new record is clearly going to be the Laptev/ESS side of the ice. The CAA are Atlantic side of the CAB are running way behind 2012 and those are going to be problems in sustaining the big losses. Click to animate.... Wow I bet in 2012 you never would have thought 2019 would look like that. I'm surprised the melt isn't more extreme.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 Continuing to see steep losses even with more a reverse dipole relative to the last few months. That tells you something about the current condition of the ice pack. NSIDC had a -164 K daily extent drop on July 17th. So very close to 2011 and 2012 on this date. Area losses continue to keep pace with 2012. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx 7-17-19.....7.454 7-17-12.....7.481 7-17-11.....7.444 Last 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 18, 2019 Share Posted July 18, 2019 It's been more or less -AO since May 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Not gonna happen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Another big daily drop of 187K puts 2019 into 1st place on 7-19 for NSIDC extent. The early portion of August is when 2012 ran away with the lead during the record Arctic storm. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx 7-18-19....7.267 7-18-11....7.299 7-18-12....7.420 A few papers on the record breaking 2012 season: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.5034 On the 2012 record low Arctic sea ice cover: Combined impact of preconditioning and an August storm https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50190 The impact of an intense summer cyclone on 2012 Arctic sea ice retreat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 19, 2019 Author Share Posted July 19, 2019 14 hours ago, Jonger said: Not gonna happen this year. Still a chance, but pretty low odds IMHO. We'll need some very warm August weather. Atlantic and CAA are a problem further out in time. We'll need the ESS/Laptev sectors to melt toward the pole further than 2012 did to have a chance because the ATL and CAA are going to finish higher than 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 On 7/12/2019 at 1:40 PM, ORH_wxman said: Here's an animation comparing 2019 to 2012 on this date. I think the key to getting a new record is clearly going to be the Laptev/ESS side of the ice. The CAA are Atlantic side of the CAB are running way behind 2012 and those are going to be problems in sustaining the big losses. Click to animate.... I still think it will be difficult. The ice is much higher concentration this year in the CAB/CAA, and 2012 had so much rotted ice on the Siberian side. This year, it's more just a straight line between ice/no ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere in this forum, but is there a good place for me to learn about Arctic ice melt forecasting? I hear you guys talking about a dipole a lot, and I would guess that that means high pressure in one place and low pressure in another place, but what does that mean for melting exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 19, 2019 Share Posted July 19, 2019 2 hours ago, lookingnorth said: Sorry if this has been covered elsewhere in this forum, but is there a good place for me to learn about Arctic ice melt forecasting? I hear you guys talking about a dipole a lot, and I would guess that that means high pressure in one place and low pressure in another place, but what does that mean for melting exactly? The classical dipole we tend to refer to typically means higher pressure on the Greenland/CAA/North American side of the basin and lower pressure on the Eurasian/Russian side. This results in a net wind and ice transport from the Pacific to Atlantic side of the basin. This typically causes high melt via transport of continental air over the central ice pack, compaction and export out through the Fram Strait and towards the Atlantic, where deep warm water makes quick work of even very thick sea ice. A reverse dipole is the opposite situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Think this will go down to the wire. The Pac-side pack has been deteriorating in a favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 Simultaneously, this indication of thick ice north of Svalbard. http://maritimebulletin.net/2019/07/19/icebreaker-turned-back-encountering-heavy-ice-in-ice-free-arctic/ So the ice conditions are quite variable. That however does not preclude a record low this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 1 hour ago, chubbs said: Think this will go down to the wire. The Pac-side pack has been deteriorating in a favorable pattern. The Arctic experienced a record May and June combination of warmth and high pressure. So we have been seeing steep declines this week even with more favorable conditions than the last few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 20, 2019 Author Share Posted July 20, 2019 1 hour ago, etudiant said: Simultaneously, this indication of thick ice north of Svalbard. http://maritimebulletin.net/2019/07/19/icebreaker-turned-back-encountering-heavy-ice-in-ice-free-arctic/ So the ice conditions are quite variable. That however does not preclude a record low this season. I mentioned before that Atlantic and CAA may prevent us from getting a new record. Much more ice there this year than 2012. But we still have a chance if ESS/Laptev can melt back far enough. We're tied for area right now. 2012 has some epic losses in early August though which is why I'm still a bit skeptical in addition to just looking at the individual regional concentration maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The Arctic experienced a record May and June combination of warmth and high pressure. So we have been seeing steep declines this week even with more favorable conditions than the last few months. The crazy thing is, with that temp trendline, this May-June period will be merely average by 2030-2035 -- though I would expect it to slow down after a while due to widespread melt moving earlier and capping temps near the melting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 20, 2019 Share Posted July 20, 2019 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I mentioned before that Atlantic and CAA may prevent us from getting a new record. Much more ice there this year than 2012. But we still have a chance if ESS/Laptev can melt back far enough. We're tied for area right now. 2012 has some epic losses in early August though which is why I'm still a bit skeptical in addition to just looking at the individual regional concentration maps. Yeah, going to be tough to beat that early Aug. swan dive that 2012 had. Upcoming dipole might help give it a run for its money though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Another record showing up in about 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 2 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Another record showing up in about 7 days. Can we FOR ONCE keep the -NAO into winter?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 21, 2019 Share Posted July 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 I wonder how many times in recorded history we've melted at the North Pole? 1 time as far as I know. The trend continues stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 22, 2019 Share Posted July 22, 2019 Here’s a quote from Wipneus on the July 15th PIOMAS update: PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data to the 15th of this month. Volume calculated from this was 8.77 [1000km3]. That is the lowest for the day, with quite a margin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 This dipole will probably largely finish off the ESS, Chukchi and Laptev. Beaufort probably won't have much left either. Not looking great for the CAB either. Only the Atlantic side is doing okay this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 23 minutes ago, csnavywx said: This dipole will probably largely finish off the ESS, Chukchi and Laptev. Beaufort probably won't have much left either. Not looking great for the CAB either. Only the Atlantic side is doing okay this year. 12z Euro has record breaking 500mb heights and surface pressures over the CAB for this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 So the all time record low is in jeopardy? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 41 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said: So the all time record low is in jeopardy? . In a very big way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 In a very big wayThat was unexpected.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 9 hours ago, Bhs1975 said: That was unexpected. . I'd expect much more melt next year, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray-Wolf Posted July 27, 2019 Share Posted July 27, 2019 We now have a warm low headed over siberia increasing the pressure grad there pluss all the heat from NW Europe is bound for Greenland/Atlantic side of the basin. Folk need to look at the near real time sat images to see just how messy some areas of the ice are! Any extra heat input is just going to take out the ice rubble in rapid order leaving isolated floes in open water just in time for 'bottom melt' end of the season to kick in. Not looking good at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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