ORH_wxman Posted June 10, 2019 Author Share Posted June 10, 2019 3 hours ago, etudiant said: Au contraire! A consensus prediction is pretty worthless, we make progress when things go different from what everyone expects and we reappraise. Of course it is always easier to burn the deniers at a stake.... It was pretty obvious we weren't getting a 1995 minimum last year. The area data near the end of June did not support anything remotely close to that. I will post my prediction again this year. Here is last year's prediction: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48618-arctic-sea-ice-extent-area-and-volume/?do=findComment&comment=4953872 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 10, 2019 Share Posted June 10, 2019 On 6/6/2019 at 12:54 PM, forkyfork said: does this low scoot out or rot in place? 4 days later forecasts are variable but most keep it going for quite some time - probably helping by preventing a classic dipole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 10, 2019 Author Share Posted June 10, 2019 Area is beginning to stall quite noticeably the last 3-4 days. 2012 was starting to go absolutely nuclear at this point. Starting to become skeptical of a record. We'll need that trend to reverse sharply in the second half of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 11, 2019 Share Posted June 11, 2019 Extent just fell below 2016 for a new record on this date. https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1138471666630053888 As of June 10th, Arctic sea ice is now the lowest on record during the satellite era (1979-2019). The extent is typical for Jun 28th. As the basin scale, the Beaufort Sea ice is the big loser. It is already at a mid-August state! https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1137749983787012096 Unprecedented early #seaice loss from both Chukchi & Beaufort Seas north and west of Alaska. June 8th extent from is 1981-2010 median for Aug 01! Five lowest extents for this date are 2015 through 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 11, 2019 Author Share Posted June 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, Weatherdude88 said: NSIDC Central Arctic sea ice area is now the highest value in the data set for 6.10 with a daily value of 3,093,797 kilometers squared. Need to see the arctic basin as a whole if we want data that predicts the future this summer...so include ESS/Laptev/Beaufort and Chukchi in those numbers....you'll see that 2019 is 3rd lowest if we do that, But there's been a recent slowdown in area loss that has seen it fall behind 2012...and it needs breathtaking losses to keep up with 2012 over the next 7-10 days. I don;'t see it happening. Today did see an acceleration again, so we'll see if that is the start of a June Cliff or not. The weather pattern doesn't look very conductive for monster losses. It looks like the Laptev and ESS could take a beating for several days, but then a vortex overtakes the arctic basin again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 keep praying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2019 Share Posted June 12, 2019 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 Greenland was very close to be entirely above freezing - wonder if that's ever happened before (in modern times) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 21 hours ago, Fantom X said: Greenland was very close to be entirely above freezing - wonder if that's ever happened before (in modern times) This was the 2nd warmest on record in Greenland for June behind 2012. https://earther.gizmodo.com/half-of-greenlands-surface-started-melting-this-week-w-1835483363 Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist with the Danish Meteorological Institute, told Earther that the weather station at the top of the ice sheet saw temperatures reach above freezing on Wednesday and they were headed that way again on Thursday. That puts them just a degree or so away from setting the all-time heat record for June, which is currently held by June 2012. The spike in temperatures has caused a spike in melt. Roughly 45 percent of the ice sheet surface has been melting. Normally, less than 10 percent of the ice sheet surface is melting at this time of year. According to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Wednesday set a daily record for the widest melt area on that date, with 275,000 square miles—an area bigger than Texas—of the ice sheet’s surface becoming a slushy, watery mess. Mottram said the much of the ice is likely to refreeze once the heat breaks, but it will be more primed to melt later in the season. https://mobile.twitter.com/RasmusTonboe/status/1139504201615237120 got the difficult task of retrieving our oceanographic moorings and weather station on sea ice in North West Greenland this year. Rapid melt and sea ice with low permeability and few cracks leaves the melt water on top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14, 2019 Share Posted June 14, 2019 On 6/10/2019 at 12:56 PM, ORH_wxman said: Area is beginning to stall quite noticeably the last 3-4 days. 2012 was starting to go absolutely nuclear at this point. Starting to become skeptical of a record. We'll need that trend to reverse sharply in the second half of the month. You mean like this ... https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html ...course, it is CNN - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 how's area doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: how's area doing? oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 looks like CAB area doesn't matter until later in the season. why did you remove the legends from that graph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 notice how the bright green line is at the bottom around this timeframe yet it winds up along the top later in the season. what's the point of focusing on a region that's irrelevant right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 i don't need to. it's right there on your graph. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 15, 2019 Share Posted June 15, 2019 area drops + extent gains = lots of spread out janky ice which will result in an extent nosedive when it melts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 15 hours ago, forkyfork said: area drops + extent gains = lots of spread out janky ice which will result in an extent nosedive when it melts The Pacific side has gotten off to an especially rough start this year. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1140230023636541440 Sea ice extent in the Chukchi & Beaufort Seas near Alaska at record low level for mid-June. A storm this past week pushed broken #seaice back over previously open water in the Beaufort Sea, resulting in a slight increase in extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Pacific side has gotten off to an especially rough start this year. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1140230023636541440 Sea ice extent in the Chukchi & Beaufort Seas near Alaska at record low level for mid-June. A storm this past week pushed broken #seaice back over previously open water in the Beaufort Sea, resulting in a slight increase in extent. extent dropped 91k today so that ice is starting to vanish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 46 minutes ago, forkyfork said: extent dropped 91k today so that ice is starting to vanish This is the first time since 2012 that we had such a hostile pattern from 05-15 to 6-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gray-Wolf Posted June 16, 2019 Share Posted June 16, 2019 For those who have not being paying close attention to either the denaturing of the pack this past 6 years, or the ice that has already exited Fram this melt season ,there may be a few surprises in the offing over the next 2 months? We have not seen the basin under such forcings for a number of years but the ice is no longer what it was the last time we did see such. I'm expecting a late June/July cliff in extent/area this year as we see 'new ice' blink out in large amounts opening up more area for the last of the peak insolation. I get the feeling we will be challenging the lowest ice years come late Aug..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 Sea ice area continues to decline though. This means the ice is spreading out. As noted above this typically means extent is poised for a significant drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 5 hours ago, bdgwx said: Sea ice area continues to decline though. This means the ice is spreading out. As noted above this typically means extent is poised for a significant drop. he'll disappear in about a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 18, 2019 Share Posted June 18, 2019 7 hours ago, Weatherdude88 said: NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 7th lowest value for 6.17, with a value of 10.696 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, and 2018. The ice has gotten battered due to a very unfavorable May/June, and the pattern is only projected to get worse as renewed blocking develops. I expect a cliff dive in sea ice next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 21 hours ago, forkyfork said: he'll disappear in about a week Yeah, some of these ensemble and OP runs are pretty monstrous with the heat in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 19, 2019 Share Posted June 19, 2019 piomas updated for mid june. from the sea ice forum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted June 20, 2019 Share Posted June 20, 2019 Have to say that the data strongly suggests a declining trend for arctic ice. Possibly this is a cyclical phenomenon, which will reverse at some future date. Historical records from the 1920s suggest a similar warm cycle has been seen before. Nevertheless, absent any identifiable mechanism to reverse the current warming, it seems reasonable to expect the 2012 lows will be broken, possibly this year. Forkyfork makes a very strong argument that the recent increase in extent reflects fragmentation of previously solid ice pack, which sets the stage for enhanced melting of the shattered ice. With the maximum melt still more than 2 months away, the odds are shifting towards a new record low imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 Area is currently about 300k behind 2012 right now. Still within striking distance but it needs to close the gap soon as 2012 goes cliff-diving again soon. We're running about 100k ahead of 2007 and nearly tied with 2016. So this year is definitely in that top 3-ish zone right now. I'm a bit skeptical of it keeping pace with 2012 looking at the medium range forecast...but the long range euro tries to go nuclear, so if that happened, then we'd have a chance. But I try and not get sucked into anything beyond D5-6 in the Arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 20, 2019 Author Share Posted June 20, 2019 Here's the current breakdown of how other years compare to 2019 right now......i.e, 2018 had 370k sq km more ice than 2019 at this point. 2018: +370k 2017: +300k 2016: -20k 2015: +170k 2014: +390k 2013: +350k 2012: -280k 2011: +70k 2010: +50k 2009: +1.1 million 2008: +450k 2007: -20k What sticks out here is how closely bunched 2019 is with 2016, 2011, 2010, and 2007 (and how much more ice 2009 had at this point than the others). Those are big melt years, so this one is on track for a big year. But we're still clearly lagging 2012 and that gap probably will need to be closed significantly before the end of the month to have a chance at a new record. 2012 loses about 1.2 million sq km of area between now and 6/30, so we're gonna need to lose more than that....which is hard to do. Only 2010 and 2007 lost more between 6/19 and the end of the month than 2012 did. The pattern beyond D6-7 on the euro shows a very hostile setup for the ice....I think we'll need this to verify in order to keep within striking distance of 2012. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 The Pacific sector continues to experience the most hostile conditions for the sea ice. https://mobile.twitter.com/alaskawx?lang=en BREAKING CLIMATE: Utqiaġvik (Barrow) has been up to 73F (22.8C) through 7pm AKDT Thursday. This is a new all-time record high for the month of June. Previous record 72F (22.2C) on June 18, 1996. Climate obs since 1920 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 21, 2019 Share Posted June 21, 2019 The upcoming pattern is an absolute ice destroyer, massive blocking high over the Arctic. Extent will plummet late June into July. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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