Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[ORH_wxman]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We'll see if we can keep the new record every 5 years going for 2017 with the previous records set in 2007 and 2012.

If we get another winter like we just did then it would be a lot more possible. 

 

This year was very difficult despite the early low extent and premature proclamations of a record being likely because average thickness was too high. 

 

But we will be going into this winter with fairly low volume so if it torches again and there's also good Fram export then that would load the dice for 2017. But if winter is a few degrees colder than last year then we'd probably have to rely on exceptional weather to gun for the record. 

[donsutherland1]

The 9/1 figure on JAXA was 4,168,394 square kilometers. That would rank as the 3rd lowest minimum figure on record. Only 2012 (3,177,455 square kilometers) and 2007 (4,065,739 square kilometers) were lower. The 5-year average decline in sea ice extent from 9/1 would produce a minimum figure of 3,931,250 square kilometers. The minimum decline (2002-15) would result in a figure of 4,050,385 square kilometers. The maximum decline (2002-15) would result in a minimum figure of 3,663,584 square kilometers. A minimum extent under 4,000,000 square kilometers appears likely and a figure just under 3,900,000 square kilometers appears possible.

[Jonger]

Looks bad.... 

My 4+ prediction, should bust.

Amazing how little we hear about geoengineering or sequestration. I have to wait years for anything interesting to come across the news. I bet it could all melt out tomorrow and not another nickel would go into either of these ventures.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Looks bad.... 

My 4+ prediction, should bust.

Amazing how little we hear about geoengineering or sequestration. I have to wait years for anything interesting to come across the news. I bet it could all melt out tomorrow and not another nickel would go into either of these ventures.

Geoengineering is an idea that's dangerous as hell IMO.

The climate status quo is a fairy tale.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Jonger said:

Looks bad.... 

My 4+ prediction, should bust.

Amazing how little we hear about geoengineering or sequestration. I have to wait years for anything interesting to come across the news. I bet it could all melt out tomorrow and not another nickel would go into either of these ventures.

On Jaxa which is lower than other datasets since they changed their land mask. I think NSIDC, U Bremen, Hamburg, etc will stay above 4...no guarantee tho.   

 

I agree with winter that geoengineering is very dangerous given how much we still do not understand about the feedbacks in the climate as it is. 

[Jonger]

 

[donsutherland1]

The 9/2 figure on JAXA was 4,090,129 square kilometers. That would rank as the 3rd lowest minimum figure on record. Only 2012 (3,177,455 square kilometers) and 2007 (4,065,739 square kilometers) were lower. The 5-year average decline in sea ice extent from 9/2 would produce a minimum figure of 3,875,040 square kilometers. The minimum decline (2002-15) would result in a figure of 4,000,554 square kilometers. The maximum decline (2002-15) would result in a minimum figure of 3,610,482 square kilometers. A minimum extent under 4,000,000 square kilometers appears very likely and a figure just under 3,900,000 square kilometers appears possible.

[Sundog]

15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

On Jaxa which is lower than other datasets since they changed their land mask. I think NSIDC, U Bremen, Hamburg, etc will stay above 4...no guarantee tho.   

 

I agree with winter that geoengineering is very dangerous given how much we still do not understand about the feedbacks in the climate as it is. 

But can't we just "switch it off" so to speak if we see adverse effects?

[WinterWxLuvr]

22 minutes ago, Sundog said:

But can't we just "switch it off" so to speak if we see adverse effects?

The whole idea speaks to the arrogance of humans. 

Weve pretty much always been guided by the notion that we can mold the earth into what we want it to be instead of adapting and living in harmony with it.  You could argue that it's that very notion that got us to this point in the first place.

[Jonger]

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

But can't we just "switch it off" so to speak if we see adverse effects?

Injecting aerosols into the stratosphere has already been tested, every time a volcano erupts. If we could knock current temps back to the 1980's levels, we could buy time and rebuild some of the icepack.

[Jonger]

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The whole idea speaks to the arrogance of humans. 

Weve pretty much always been guided by the notion that we can mold the earth into what we want it to be instead of adapting and living in harmony with it.  You could argue that it's that very notion that got us to this point in the first place.

It needs to be looked at seriously. Right now, we barely hear anyone talking about it. I think environmentalists think it's a get of of jail free card and deniers poo-poo it, because that would mean admitted there is an issue.

[Sundog]

5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The whole idea speaks to the arrogance of humans. 

Weve pretty much always been guided by the notion that we can mold the earth into what we want it to be instead of adapting and living in harmony with it.  You could argue that it's that very notion that got us to this point in the first place.

Honestly, it's better than doing nothing, because that's what we're doing right now, absolutely nothing. 

[Sundog]

2 hours ago, Jonger said:

It needs to be looked at seriously. Right now, we barely hear anyone talking about it. I think environmentalists think it's a get of of jail free card and deniers poo-poo it, because that would mean admitted there is an issue.

We already know the Earth is fine for humans being a couple degrees cooler, because it was before the industrial revolution! I think it's better than doing nothing because we are definitely screwing up the Earth now. Why not at least try to offset the warming effects? Status quo is simply unacceptable. 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Put our time, effort, energy, and money in making adjustments to the climate.

Status quo is a no go.

[donsutherland1]

Arctic sea ice extent falls to 2nd lowest on record...

The 9/3 figure on JAXA was 4,054,179 square kilometers. That would ranks as the 2nd lowest minimum figure on record. Only 2007 (4,065,739 square kilometers) was lower. The 5-year average decline in sea ice extent from 9/3 would produce a minimum figure of 3,852,090 square kilometers. The minimum decline (2002-15) would result in a figure of 3,950,344 square kilometers. The maximum decline (2002-15) would result in a minimum figure of 3,647,151 square kilometers. A minimum extent under 4,000,000 square kilometers appears very likely (> 90%) and a figure just under 3,900,000 square kilometers appears possible.
 

[ORH_wxman]

13 hours ago, Sundog said:

But can't we just "switch it off" so to speak if we see adverse effects?

And how do you know it would stop? Climate systems have inertia. How do you know what the effects would be? Our understanding of feedbacks is not precise at all  

 

What if you started a cooling process and weren't able to stop it where you wanted and it ran a degree of cooling? That's pretty dangerous stuff. Rapid cooling is probably more dangerous than current warming. 

[skierinvermont]

10 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

And how do you know it would stop? Climate systems have inertia. How do you know what the effects would be? Our understanding of feedbacks is not precise at all  

 

What if you started a cooling process and weren't able to stop it where you wanted and it ran a degree of cooling? That's pretty dangerous stuff. Rapid cooling is probably more dangerous than current warming. 

 

Be pretty tough to get a degree of cooling w CO2 at 400ppm.

 

You'd have to take out a crap ton of CO2 or block a lot of sunlight....

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, skierinvermont said:

 

Be pretty tough to get a degree of cooling w CO2 at 400ppm.

 

You'd have to take out a crap ton of CO2 or block a lot of sunlight....

We're taking geoengineering projects. 

[Jonger]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're taking geoengineering projects. 

If we lose the icepack, I think the idea will be taken more serious. There are a number of negatives, one would be the ozone depletion and the second would be the possibility of acid rain. The fact that most industrialized nations (minus China) are reducing So2, this might be leading to more warming. 

Does stratosphere SO2 end up as acid rain or is that more related to surface release?

[skierinvermont]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're taking geoengineering projects. 

I know. The most common geoengineering involves blocking the sun or sequestering CO2... both of which would have minimal impact unless done on a massive scale and sequestration is pretty reversible. 

I think the bigger issue with geoengineering is the side effects.

[Jonger]

1 minute ago, skierinvermont said:

I know. The most common geoengineering involves blocking the sun or sequestering CO2... both of which would have minimal impact unless done on a massive scale and sequestration is pretty reversible. 

I think the bigger issue with geoengineering is the side effects.

how?

[skierinvermont]

Just now, Jonger said:

how?

 

Just put the CO2 back in the atmosphere... we're pretty good at that already without even trying.

[Jonger]

1 hour ago, skierinvermont said:

 

Just put the CO2 back in the atmosphere... we're pretty good at that already without even trying.

The least dangerous and most logical solution is to sequester while drawing down co2 output levels. Carbon based fuels have led to the modern world, don't expect a quick solution to energy needs. We need a combo of all 3.

Reduce co2, sequester existing co2 and reverse warming in the short term with geoengineering.

[donsutherland1]

9/4 JAXA figure: 4,056,306 square kilometers. This was a slight increase from 9/3, but it is not likely the minimum for this year.

[frontranger8]

Given the upcoming pattern, a late minimum (past 9/12) looks very unlikely. Good chance the min is before 9/10.

[bluewave]

Took one of the strongest summer polar vortex patterns over the Arctic of the 2000's to prevent this year from equaling or surpassing 2012.

The most  dramatic  pattern change that you will ever see there following the strongest blocking pattern on record from Jan-May.

 

 

 

 

[Jonger]

Possibly the worst possible winter pattern.... Didn't it stay pretty much crap right up until May?

[donsutherland1]

9/5 JAXA figure: 4,045,470 square kilometers, down 10,836 kilometers. This would be the second lowest minimum figure on record.

[skierinvermont]

 

Given the upcoming pattern, a late minimum (past 9/12) looks very unlikely. Good chance the min is before 9/10.

We hear this every year..

[donsutherland1]

The 9/6 Arctic sea ice extent figure on JAXA was 4,022,615 square kilometers. That was a decrease of 22,855 square kilometers from 9/5. It would represent the 2nd lowest minimum figure on record.