Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[taylorsweather]

what is the current sea ice extent, and where is that number in relationship to the past two weeks.  I can't find where the daily data is located, so any assistance would be appreciated.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Taylorsweather said:

what is the current sea ice extent, and where is that number in relationship to the past two weeks.  I can't find where the daily data is located, so any assistance would be appreciated.

Sea ice extent on Jaxa is currently 4.48 million sq km. That ranks 6th lowest...you can find the data here and click on "extent graph" at the top:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/monitor

 

NSIDC area is currently at 4.63 million sq km. That currently ranks 7th lowest. You can find the data here (need excel)

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/

or you can use their interactive graph:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

[taylorsweather]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sea ice extent on Jaxa is currently 4.48 million sq km. That ranks 6th lowest...you can find the data here and click on "extent graph" at the top:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/monitor

 

NSIDC area is currently at 4.63 million sq km. That currently ranks 7th lowest. You can find the data here (need excel)

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/

or you can use their interactive graph:

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

much appreciated

[so_whats_happening]

Since we are getting real close now we have to ask the question do we see the large increase in extent as we have seen over the past couple of years at the beginning of the season or do we actually allow some heat to escape into the atmosphere from the ocean.

[SnowHole413]

Looks like September 10th and 11th could be a potential minimum for sea ice. According to nsidc, 4.649 million km2 was reported for both dates. 

[raindancewx]

As mentioned earlier in this topic, its interesting seeing the ice extent coming back a bit with the AMO dropping a lot from last year. Came in at 0.314 in Sept 2017, down from 0.461(!) last September. We've caught 2008, and are running ahead of 2007, 2012, 2015, 2016 for sea ice extent on 9.11. We may catch 2010 or another year for lowest extent if there aren't more big losses soon.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJkbUBAU8AAmg72.jpg:large

[so_whats_happening]

If I am seeing it right it looks like 9/9 for extent at 4.47 according to this one

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

NSIDC has 4.636 as of 9/13 with slight gains yesterday

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

 

Cant seem to find a good interactive map for area or volume but im pretty sure someone posted area may have been back at the beginning of september?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

If I am seeing it right it looks like 9/9 for extent at 4.47 according to this one

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

NSIDC has 4.636 as of 9/13 with slight gains yesterday

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

 

Cant seem to find a good interactive map for area or volume but im pretty sure someone posted area may have been back at the beginning of september?

 

Looks like area bottomed out at 2.94...so it managed to squeak below the 9/1 minimum of 2.99....the 2.94 ranks behind 2016, 2012, 2007, and 2011. So 5th lowest. We have since rebounded back up to 3.15 so we almost certainly reached the min...very tough to go back down over 200k from here.

 

NSIDC extent will finish 8th lowest if it cannot decline another 60k...so far the minimum is 4.61 which is a measly 20k above the 2010 minimum. We could still decline though in extent on NSIDC enough to catch 2010...but it will need to happen within the next few days. Jaxa is still hovering not too far above the 9/9 minimum too...so it's possible we still go below that 4.47 number as well.

 

PIOMAS hasn't updated their volume yet, but they usually do so a little after mid-September when they think the minimum has occurred...so we'll probably see an update from them in the next few days I'd think. Sometimes though, we don't get the update until early October...hopefully they decide to do the mid-month update.

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Looks like area bottomed out at 2.94...so it managed to squeak below the 9/1 minimum of 2.99....the 2.94 ranks behind 2016, 2012, 2007, and 2011. So 5th lowest. We have since rebounded back up to 3.15 so we almost certainly reached the min...very tough to go back down over 200k from here.

 

NSIDC extent will finish 8th lowest if it cannot decline another 60k...so far the minimum is 4.61 which is a measly 20k above the 2010 minimum. We could still decline though in extent on NSIDC enough to catch 2010...but it will need to happen within the next few days. Jaxa is still hovering not too far above the 9/9 minimum too...so it's possible we still go below that 4.47 number as well.

 

PIOMAS hasn't updated their volume yet, but they usually do so a little after mid-September when they think the minimum has occurred...so we'll probably see an update from them in the next few days I'd think. Sometimes though, we don't get the update until early October...hopefully they decide to do the mid-month update.

Where do you get your area data from? and im guessing the 4.61 was from today? because last i saw it was 4.636 but yes Jaxa is hovering still right around that 4.48-4.5 region so yes that will have to be monitored.

Thanks for the thoughts still trying to understand all about the arctic and its influences among many other things.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Where do you get your area data from? and im guessing the 4.61 was from today? because last i saw it was 4.636 but yes Jaxa is hovering still right around that 4.48-4.5 region so yes that will have to be monitored.

Thanks for the thoughts still trying to understand all about the arctic and its influences among many other things.

I posted some links further up:

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48618-arctic-sea-ice-extent-area-and-volume/?do=findComment&comment=4619754

 

You can also check the arctic sea ice forum...there's a thread that lists the area and extent:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?board=3.0

 

You might have been looking at the NSIDC interactive graph which actually plots a 2 day mean I think and not single daily values. The daily value is actually up to 4.65, but the daily min a few days ago was 4.61.

 

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I posted some links further up:

 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48618-arctic-sea-ice-extent-area-and-volume/?do=findComment&comment=4619754

 

You can also check the arctic sea ice forum...there's a thread that lists the area and extent:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?board=3.0

 

You might have been looking at the NSIDC interactive graph which actually plots a 2 day mean I think and not single daily values. The daily value is actually up to 4.65, but the daily min a few days ago was 4.61.

 

Gotcha thanks for the little tidbit on the interactive graph and yea i have frequented that forum quite a bit to get an idea and has immensely helped.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It's been a bad few years for Friv.

[Stradivarious]

I was just at the northernmost tip of Alaska just outside Barrow on the beach on Wednesday afternoon and there was no ice to be seen...even touched the ocean there...(didn't go swimming)...

[WidreMann]

2 hours ago, Stradivarious said:

I was just at the northernmost tip of Alaska just outside Barrow on the beach on Wednesday afternoon and there was no ice to be seen...even touched the ocean there...(didn't go swimming)...

To be fair, the median ice extent (15% concentration) this time of year is quite a ways away from Barrow. You have to go back to the early parts of the 20th century before you'd generally see ice in Barrow at this time of year.

[bluewave]

Tough to beat the 2012  extent record with such a strong summer polar vortex pattern since then. But 2007 will probably go down in history as the year that the Arctic permanently shifted to this warmer state with reduced sea ice. Even recent numerous more favorable summers haven't allowed  the sea ice recover to pre 2007 levels. Our best year now is still lower than anything that came before 2005-2007.

 

 

 

 

[nzucker]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Tough to beat the 2012  extent record with such a strong summer polar vortex pattern since then. But 2007 will probably go down in history as the year that the Arctic permanently shifted to this warmer state with reduced sea ice. Even recent numerous more favorable summers haven't allowed  the sea ice recover to pre 2007 levels. Our best year now is still lower than anything that came before 2005-2007.

 

If we have a relatively -AO winter with limited Fram export, and another cold PV dominant summer following this relatively benign melt year (6th to 8th lowest extent), then we may have a chance to get back to pre-2007 conditions. It definitely appears the ice pack has stabilized somewhat.

And yes, Friv disappeared when the big melt years ceased. Interesting to see the bias of different posters on here.

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, nzucker said:

If we have a relatively -AO winter with limited Fram export, and another cold PV dominant summer following this relatively benign melt year (6th to 8th lowest extent), then we may have a chance to get back to pre-2007 conditions. It definitely appears the ice pack has stabilized somewhat.

And yes, Friv disappeared when the big melt years ceased. Interesting to see the bias of different posters on here.

It would probably take an extraordinary circumstance to ever see a September minimum extent above 6 million sq km after the damage that was done to the ice during the 2007-2012 era.

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, nzucker said:

If we have a relatively -AO winter with limited Fram export, and another cold PV dominant summer following this relatively benign melt year (6th to 8th lowest extent), then we may have a chance to get back to pre-2007 conditions. It definitely appears the ice pack has stabilized somewhat.

And yes, Friv disappeared when the big melt years ceased. Interesting to see the bias of different posters on here.

The extent/area has def stabilized since 2007...basically flat trends. Volume is still def trending down since 2007 (though flat or even slightly up since 2010). What we need to rebuild volume more is a colder winter mixed in between two slower melt years...we've had really warm winters recently. 2012-2013 was the last winter that was def colder...more toward climo. It probably helped with the 2013 rebound after the epic 2012...that, and the cold summer of course...that's why we got a min above 5 million sq km right after the record low. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would probably take an extraordinary circumstance to ever see a September minimum extent above 6 million sq km after the damage that was done to the ice after that 2007 season.

Yeah I'm skeptical we'd get there again...maybe if we got 3 flukish slow melt years and maybe one or two colder winters mixed in we'd see some much higher min...but even then I'm not sure. We had a lot of mulityear ice back then. We'd really need to replenish it over 4-6 years and that isn't easy in the current state. We started to do it after 2012 but we saw most of it get destroyed during the epic July 2015 pattern. 

 

Realistically, I think we would need another Pinatubo eruption to get back around 6 million sq km. We'd prob drop Arctic temps by about 1-2C for a couple years which might be enough for big temporary rebound. 

[so_whats_happening]

We need those warmer subsurface waters to calm that are being pumped into Arctic or massive release of heat from those waters, which seems unlikely more of chipping away process, as well. System cant sustain something if the region it is at has to work with has also been on average 1-2C warmer.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm skeptical we'd get there again...maybe if we got 3 flukish slow melt years and maybe one or two colder winters mixed in we'd see some much higher min...but even then I'm not sure. We had a lot of mulityear ice back then. We'd really need to replenish it over 4-6 years and that isn't easy in the current state. We started to do it after 2012 but we saw most of it get destroyed during the epic July 2015 pattern. 

 

Realistically, I think we would need another Pinatubo eruption to get back around 6 million sq km. We'd prob drop Arctic temps by about 1-2C for a couple years which might be enough for big temporary rebound. 

I am beginning to think that the key number for Arctic amplification was dropping below 6 million sq km. Crossing the technically ice free mark below 1 million sq km sometime in the future may not even be that significant an event.

 

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

3 hours ago, nzucker said:

If we have a relatively -AO winter with limited Fram export, and another cold PV dominant summer following this relatively benign melt year (6th to 8th lowest extent), then we may have a chance to get back to pre-2007 conditions. It definitely appears the ice pack has stabilized somewhat.

And yes, Friv disappeared when the big melt years ceased. Interesting to see the bias of different posters on here.

While I don't think we'll melt out before 2030, I really think it's unlikely we recover to pre-2007. Part of that is the consistent loss of ice in the Beaufort Gyre region, which has flipped from being a system which recirculates MYI from season to season to a system that effectively destroys it (this year included) due to melt before it can be recirculated. Another is the remarkable amount of shoaling of warmer Atlantic Water (AW) on the Eurasian side of the basin. The forcing from this oceanic input is substantial. These factors alone are enough to prevent a MYI recovery. Without a sustained recovery in MYI, a FYI dominated basin will always be susceptible to summer melt-out, even in somewhat cooler-than-average summers.

The downward trend in April volume (which has a fairly large correlation of about .4-.5 to Sept. volume) has not stopped or slowed down. Unless that changes, this signal will eventually overwhelm any temporary gains due to cooler summer weather in the long run.

Bottom line -- predicting imminent doom or recovery in the pack at this point kinda leaves the predictor as a hostage to fortune.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

While I don't think we'll melt out before 2030, I really think it's unlikely we recover to pre-2007. Part of that is the consistent loss of ice in the Beaufort Gyre region, which has flipped from being a system which recirculates MYI from season to season to a system that effectively destroys it (this year included) due to melt before it can be recirculated. Another is the remarkable amount of shoaling of warmer Atlantic Water (AW) on the Eurasian side of the basin. The forcing from this oceanic input is substantial. These factors alone are enough to prevent a MYI recovery. Without a sustained recovery in MYI, a FYI dominated basin will always be susceptible to summer melt-out, even in somewhat cooler-than-average summers.

The downward trend in April volume (which has a fairly large correlation of about .4-.5 to Sept. volume) has not stopped or slowed down. Unless that changes, this signal will eventually overwhelm any temporary gains due to cooler summer weather in the long run.

Bottom line -- predicting imminent doom or recovery in the pack at this point kinda leaves the predictor as a hostage to fortune.

 

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0693.1

 Extreme warming in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea during the winter period 2000 to 2016

 

Abstract

The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) is used with a high resolution of 15 km for the entire Arctic for all winters 2002/2003-2014/2015. The simulations show a high spatial and temporal variability of the recent 2-m air temperature increase in the Arctic. The maximum warming occurs north of Novaya Zemlya in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea between March 2003-2012 and is responsible for up to 20°C increase. Land-based observations confirm the increase but do not cover the maximum regions that are located over the ocean and sea-ice. Also the 30 km version of the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) is used to verify the CCLM for the overlapping time period 2002/2003-2011/2012. The differences between CCLM and ASR 2-m air temperatures vary slightly within 1°C for the ocean and sea-ice area. Thus, ASR captures the extreme warming as well. The monthly 2-m air temperatures of observations and ERA-Interim reanalyses show a large variability for the winters 1979-2016. Nevertheless, the air temperature rise since the beginning of the 21^st century is up to eight times higher than in the decades before. The sea-ice decrease is identified as the likely reason for the warming. The vertical temperature profiles show that the warming has a maximum near the surface, but a 0.5°Cyr⁻¹increase is found up to 2 km. CCLM, ASR and also the coarser resolved ERA-Interim Reanalysis show that February and March are the months with the highest 2-m air temperature increases, averaged over the ocean and sea-ice area north of 70°N; for CCLM the warming amounts to an average of almost 5°C for 2002/2003-2011/2012.

 

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0693.1

 Extreme warming in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea during the winter period 2000 to 2016

 

Abstract

The regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) is used with a high resolution of 15 km for the entire Arctic for all winters 2002/2003-2014/2015. The simulations show a high spatial and temporal variability of the recent 2-m air temperature increase in the Arctic. The maximum warming occurs north of Novaya Zemlya in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea between March 2003-2012 and is responsible for up to 20°C increase. Land-based observations confirm the increase but do not cover the maximum regions that are located over the ocean and sea-ice. Also the 30 km version of the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) is used to verify the CCLM for the overlapping time period 2002/2003-2011/2012. The differences between CCLM and ASR 2-m air temperatures vary slightly within 1°C for the ocean and sea-ice area. Thus, ASR captures the extreme warming as well. The monthly 2-m air temperatures of observations and ERA-Interim reanalyses show a large variability for the winters 1979-2016. Nevertheless, the air temperature rise since the beginning of the 21^st century is up to eight times higher than in the decades before. The sea-ice decrease is identified as the likely reason for the warming. The vertical temperature profiles show that the warming has a maximum near the surface, but a 0.5°Cyr⁻¹increase is found up to 2 km. CCLM, ASR and also the coarser resolved ERA-Interim Reanalysis show that February and March are the months with the highest 2-m air temperature increases, averaged over the ocean and sea-ice area north of 70°N; for CCLM the warming amounts to an average of almost 5°C for 2002/2003-2011/2012.

 

Yeah, pretty remarkable warming in that region.

 

Also see:

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28386025

 

 

Quote

 

Greater role for Atlantic inflows on sea-ice loss in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean.

Abstract

Arctic sea-ice loss is a leading indicator of climate change and can be attributed, in large part, to atmospheric forcing. Here, we show that recent ice reductions, weakening of the halocline, and shoaling of the intermediate-depth Atlantic Water layer in the eastern Eurasian Basin have increased winter ventilation in the ocean interior, making this region structurally similar to that of the western Eurasian Basin. The associated enhanced release of oceanic heat has reduced winter sea-ice formation at a rate now comparable to losses from atmospheric thermodynamic forcing, thus explaining the recent reduction in sea-ice cover in the eastern Eurasian Basin. This encroaching "atlantification" of the Eurasian Basin represents an essential step toward a new Arctic climate state, with a substantially greater role for Atlantic inflows.

 

I'm trying to dig up some of the figures from that, but if I recall (from reading it earlier in the year) the shoaling magnitudes were pretty remarkable. On average, the water layer had shoaled halfway to the surface on the order of a decade or so and is steadily progressing eastward. It was part of the reason (along with the warm weather) why it took so long for that ice to freeze up last fall/winter.

[donsutherland1]

It appears that the September 9 figure of 4,472,225 square kilometers (JAXA) could be this year's minimum sea ice extent. That would be the highest figure since 2014 when the minimum extent was 4,884,120 square kilometers.

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, pretty remarkable warming in that region.

 

Also see:

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28386025

 

 

I'm trying to dig up some of the figures from that, but if I recall (from reading it earlier in the year) the shoaling magnitudes were pretty remarkable. On average, the water layer had shoaled halfway to the surface on the order of a decade or so and is steadily progressing eastward. It was part of the reason (along with the warm weather) why it took so long for that ice to freeze up last fall/winter.

Still looks like the paper is behind a paywall. But phys.org posted some of the key findings.

 

https://phys.org/news/2017-04-eastern-arctic-ocean-atlantification.html

(Phys.org)—An international team of researchers has found that the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean is undergoing what they describe as "Atlantification"—in which the ocean is becoming more like the Atlantic Ocean. In their paper published in the journal Science, the group describes how they tracked ocean temperatures over a 15-year period and the changes they found.

The Arctic Ocean has traditionally been different from the Atlantic or Pacific in a fundamental way—the water gets warmer as you go deeper (due to inflows from the Atlantic) rather than the other way around, as happens with the other two. But now, the researchers with this new effort have found that may be changing. They have been using tethered moorings to record ocean temperatures at different depths for approximately 15 years and have found that changes have taken place—sea ice is melting from below, not just from above due to warmer air temperatures.

In studying the data from the moorings, the researchers found that warm water from the Atlantic, which has traditionally been separated from melting ice because of the halocline layer—a barrier that exists between deep salty water and fresher water closer to the surface—has been penetrating the barrier, allowing ice to melt from below. It has also led to the water becoming less stratified, like the Atlantic. They describe the changes as a "massive shift" in the ocean that has occurred over an extremely short time frame. These new findings may explain why the extent of ice coverage has been shrinking so dramatically—at a rate of 13 percent per decade.

The result, the researchers report, is a feedback loop—as more ice melts due to warmer air, more vertical mixing occurs, allowing warmer water to move upwards, which causes melting from below. They also acknowledge that it is not yet clear what impact the change might have, but suggest it is likely to be substantial—from the biogeochemical to geophysical levels, basic components of the ocean will likely be altered, causing changes such as phytoplankton blooms in places where they have never been seen before. They also note that there is another factor to consider—the massive amounts of fresh water pouring into the ocean from rivers in Siberia as permafrost thaws.

 

[ORH_wxman]

PIOMAS updated mid-month...the minimum occurred on Sept 11th with a volume of 4,542 cubic km. This was 4th lowest...slightly below 2010 which was 4,582 cubic km. 2012, 2011, and 2016 finished lower.

[ORH_wxman]

On 7/3/2017 at 8:44 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the distributions of the final area minimum should 2017 follow the same path of each previous year's melt after June 30th. (I.E. you can see that if we followed 2015's melt after June 30th, our minimum would be at 3.00 million sq km)

 

Using percentiles, the 10th percentile is 2.87 million sq km and the 90th is 3.87 million sq km with a median of 3.31 million sq km...however, that is using the entire distribution since 1979 and as I noted in a discussion with skierinvermont, the recent years may be starting to trend a little higher for ice loss after June 30th...this isn't conclusive yet, but I think it should be mentioned. If we only use 2007-2016, then our percentiles would change...you'd get a 10th percentile of 2.80, a 90th perecentile of 3.31 and a median of 3.12. Note how the 90th percentile for post-2007 is the same as the median for the entire distribution...this is because in the past 10 years, we haven't had any of those very slow post-June 30th melt years like we saw especially in the 1990s....but even 2005 and 2006 were quite slow in area loss after June 30th.

 

Thus, given all the information...my prediction for 2017 min will be 3.10 plus or minus 200,000 sq km...so a range of 2.90 to 3.30. This covers a lot of rankings of course. We could theoretically finish anywhere from #3 to #8.

 

 

Given the area is more than 400,000 sq km above the min now, I think it is quite safe to call the minimum. My decision to use the post-2007 distribution served well this season for predictions as the area bottomed out at 2.94 million sq km...that was within my range of 2.90-3.30 at the time of this post. The minimum of 2.94 million sqkm ranks 5th lowest behind 2007, 2011, 2016, and 2012. There were some unknown factors going into this season. We had the lowest volume on record at the beginning of the melt season so we weren't sure how it would respond versus previous years. We had some pretty big/strong cyclones this summer, but the key IMHO is we lacked a good pre-conditioning melt pattern...so the cyclones did relatively little damage. The weak pre-conditioning was a bigger factor than the low volume, though the low volume did play a role as evidenced by the summer temperatures were very similar to 2014, yet the ice melted back further than 2014 which finished with an area minimum around 3.50 million sq km and an extent min around 5 million sq km.

 

It is also pretty safe to call the extent minimum. NSIDC extent increased 92k last night, which puts it about 230k above the min. The minimum was 4.61 million sq km. This ranked 8th lowest behind 2012, 2007, 2016, 2015, 2011, 2008, and 2010.  Jaxa's minimum was 4.47 million sq km which is consistent with the change in their methodology in 2014 which puts them a bit lower than NSIDC.. That closes the books on the 2017 melt season.

 

 

Ice pack at min area:

 

[nzucker]

Looks as if the Northwest Passage never opened?

A relatively weak melt season in terms of area and extent, but volume continues to show limited recovery.

[Sugarloaf1989]

12 hours ago, nzucker said:

Looks as if the Northwest Passage never opened?

A relatively weak melt season in terms of area and extent, but volume continues to show limited recovery.

The passage had the earliest ever transit this year on July 29th.