Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[csnavywx]

A couple of sharp drops on JAXA over the past couple of days (-98k and -112k) as the peripheral seas are getting hit with some pretty high temps for this time of year. Some outright melting conditions are present over the Kara/Barents Sea area as well and look to continue for the next few days, so we may have hit our maximum for the year on extent. FDD anomaly totals are piling up again after a brief pause late in Feb and early this month.

[chubbs]

CFS for April through June. CFS has been predicting that a dipole pattern will be favored this spring for a while now. Of course these long lead forecasts are quite uncertain. Posting this now to document for a later re-check.

[WidreMann]

On 3/28/2017 at 6:42 AM, chubbs said:

CFS for April through June. CFS has been predicting that a dipole pattern will be favored this spring for a while now. Of course these long lead forecasts are quite uncertain. Posting this now to document for a later re-check.

Above normal heights everywhere. Wow.

Dipole is good or bad for ice?

[chubbs]

7 hours ago, WidreMann said:

Above normal heights everywhere. Wow.

Dipole is good or bad for ice?

Depending on details dipole is generally  bad due to high pressure over Beaufort, warm air from Russia and increased fram transport.

[LithiaWx]

11 hours ago, chubbs said:

Depending on details dipole is generally  bad due to high pressure over Beaufort, warm air from Russia and increased fram transport.

Yep dipole anomalies are known for the massive fram export.  Lots of MYI goes down the toilet in those patterns. 

[donsutherland1]

In March, Arctic sea ice extent averaged 13,679,429 square kilometers. That broke the March record low average of 13,729,002 square kilometers, which had been set in 2015.

For the January 1-March 31 period, Arctic sea ice extent averaged 13,294,815 square kilometers in March. That set a new record low average for the first three months of the year. The previous record was 13,430,714 square kilometers, which was set last year. 
 

[Snow_Miser]

Record low volume continued into March. It would be impressive at this point if September also did not see record low volume.

[chubbs]

13 hours ago, Snow_Miser said:

Record low volume continued into March. It would be impressive at this point if September also did not see record low volume.

 

From Wipneus on ASIF - as is typically the case not much change in the volume anomaly in March. Yes, will take a 2008/2014 or even better a pre-2007 type year to avoid a September record.

[csnavywx]

High eastern Pacific SSTs tend to favor melt over the Pacific and parts of the CAA, so keep an eye on that. Of course, a good PV pattern over the pole could negate a good deal of the potential damage. The Beaufort/Chukchi and Kara/Barents regions are particularly vulnerable this season due to low in-situ starting thicknesses. The Chukchi in particular didn't freeze over until early January.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Compare to other years. 

The Pacific side is a joke.  

Going to take 2013 or 1996 weather to prevent a top 3. 

And that's not guaranteed.

Nice dipole underway with ridiculous heights this week as well.

 

 

 

 

[LithiaWx]

1 hour ago, The_Global_Warmer said:

Compare to other years. 

The Pacific side is a joke.  

Going to take 2013 or 1996 weather to prevent a top 3. 

And that's not guaranteed.

Nice dipole underway with ridiculous heights this week as well.

 

 

 

 

Welcome back 

[The_Global_Warmer]

1 hour ago, LithiaWx said:

Welcome back 

Thanks its good to be back.I

 

[Snow_Miser]

5 hours ago, The_Global_Warmer said:

Compare to other years. 

The Pacific side is a joke.  

Going to take 2013 or 1996 weather to prevent a top 3. 

And that's not guaranteed.

Nice dipole underway with ridiculous heights this week as well.

 

 

 

 

Welcome back Friv. 

Not a pretty depiction by ensemble forecasts over the next 10 days for the Pacific side. 

 

[Snow_Miser]

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

IUThe models show a massive ridge.  

The Euro is ending April with a massive full scale dipole anomaly on the NA side.  

The GFS also keeps the Pacific side way warm.

Will see ice darkening from this and below normal ice growth

 

 

 

[chubbs]

33% chance of a new record in 2017 per James Screen, 97% chance of bottom 3.

 

[chubbs]

Daily sea ice anomaly and 12-month running mean from Zeke Hausfather. The 12-month mean has dropped more quickly in recent years drven by reduced cool season sea ice.

[csnavywx]

DMI 80N temps finally fell to normal for the first time since last summer. CFSv2 weeklies showed this happening a while back (starting at least in early/mid-April). The next couple of weeks look fairly cool compared to what we've had recently (wrt normal). W3/W4 shows some action -- so we'll see if that pans out as we're coming upon the critical period for early season melt ponds in about 3-4 weeks.

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

Volume topped out at 20.7K km3. Terrible. Currently, there is a 1.6K gap with 2011, the previous lowest record. Near to slightly below average temps will help close a bit of that over the next 7-10 days. After that, signals are emerging for the massive NAO block to retrograde into a position to help produce a +DA by around the middle of the month and rapid warming over most of the basin. The GEFS, EPS and CFSv2 weeklies are on board for it atm, so this will have to be watched. A +DA going into the later half of this month would be bad news, as the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas won't offer up much resistance with a near total lack of MYI this year.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

wouldn't be surprised to see a cooler than expected outcome by years end.  

we have a Republican in office now, Geo-engineering for the win.   It's much easier to artificially cool a small area (like the north pole), than it would be other larger regions. 

and aerosols aren't the only option.  no population out there, so they can play around all they want. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

wouldn't be surprised to see a cooler than expected outcome by years end.  

we have a Republican in office now, Geo-engineering for the win.   It's much easier to artificially cool a small area (like the north pole), than it would be other larger regions. 

and aerosols aren't the only option.  no population out there, so they can play around all they want. 

 

You can't be serious about geoengineering. The arctic basin is still a huge area even if it's smaller than the U.S.

 

A more important development is the cold weather that has been over most of the basin this month...particularly the Asian/Eurasian side as that side is typically the first to experience melt ponds and the cold weather is delaying the start of melt pond season there. That could put a dent in chances at a new record this year despite the record low volume entering this season. The chukchi is a bit above normal though, and that is the thinnest ice, so we'll see if that offsets it some, but the cold is forecast to remain quite stubborn for at least another week over the ESS/Laptev/Kara.

 

 

[forkyfork]

that is a pretty favorable melt pattern after day 7. we'll see if it's real

[csnavywx]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that is a pretty favorable melt pattern after day 7. we'll see if it's real

Yeah, EPS and GEFS are showing a pretty strong +AD pattern from D6 onwards. The CFSv2 has been barking on this for weeks and was for the current cold spell as well. It'll be interesting to see if that verifies as it would pretty much jump-start the melting season. Interestingly, looking back, the first 12 days or so of May 2012 were pretty cool as well before it flipped warm.

[chubbs]

9 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, EPS and GEFS are showing a pretty strong +AD pattern from D6 onwards. The CFSv2 has been barking on this for weeks and was for the current cold spell as well. It'll be interesting to see if that verifies as it would pretty much jump-start the melting season. Interestingly, looking back, the first 12 days or so of May 2012 were pretty cool as well before it flipped warm.

In March I posted a CFSv2 forecast for April-June that called for above normal heights over the arctic. Too early for verification but that forecast doesn't look bad currently.

[forkyfork]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

So which June weather pattern shows up in the Arctic this year? The record dipole pattern of 2007-2012 or the more favorable lower pressure regime of 2013-2016. The other option is an intermediate pattern between those two extremes.

the gfes is solidly on the dipole train going into june

[chubbs]

On 5/17/2017 at 7:58 AM, bluewave said:

So which June weather pattern shows up in the Arctic this year? The record dipole pattern of 2007-2012 or the more favorable lower pressure regime of 2013-2016. The other option is an intermediate pattern between those two extremes.

 

Here is the past 30 days. Overall an intermediate regime, but with persistent flow from the Pacific to the Atlantic side.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles want to establish a pretty good dipole pattern for the next 4-7 days...it would keep warm air flowing into the Pacific side of the arctic. That has been the warmest region so far this month...the Eurasian/Atlantic side has been in the deep freeze. But the thinnest ice is from Beaufort to Chukchi and that's where the warmth has been so we'll have to see if that ends up jump-starting things soon.  

 

We have some catching up to do in the Beaufort....you can also see how slow the Atlantic sector is this year with the cold spring.

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles want to establish a pretty good dipole pattern for the next 4-7 days...it would keep warm air flowing into the Pacific side of the arctic. That has been the warmest region so far this month...the Eurasian/Atlantic side has been in the deep freeze. But the thinnest ice is from Beaufort to Chukchi and that's where the warmth has been so we'll have to see if that ends up jump-starting things soon.  

 

We have some catching up to do in the Beaufort....you can also see how slow the Atlantic sector is this year with the cold spring.

 

 

Unless I'm just not reading that right, it sure looks as if the concentration level is much higher across the board with the exception of Hudson Bay.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Unless I'm just not reading that right, it sure looks as if the concentration level is much higher across the board with the exception of Hudson Bay.

The lowest concentrations in 2016 at this point was showing up mostly in the Atlantic/Eurasian sector...and it's been really cold this year so far there, so it's probably not showing much melt ponding yet. We'll see how much that matters in the next few weeks...the warmth in the Beaufort/Chukchi could help 2017 play catchup a bit.

[csnavywx]

The GFS and GEFS skill scores have been in the tank over the last week. Euro and EPS have suffered as well, but not as badly. Use with extra caution.