Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[cleetussnow]

11 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Define the purpose of monitoring "just the arctic" when the "spirit" of doing so is for on-going climate monitoring. 

This is a Global problem - it should all be contained.

It is….in the climate forum.

[FPizz]

22 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Define the purpose of monitoring "just the arctic" when the "spirit" of doing so is for on-going climate monitoring. 

This is a Global problem - it should all be contained.

 

20 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Several months back I suggested that if the shenanigans kept up in the Antarctic then perhaps it might be time for a dedicated thread. The data collected by the IPCC suggested that sea ice extents may increase through 2030 at the very least. Yet here we are with record lows. Perhaps the time for a dedicated thread as come.

Yes, this thread has existed for years for the ARCTIC.  That is why I suggested a thread for the Antarctic.  We went from highest recorded to lowest in what, 5 years?  Make a thread for it with all the data you can gather or just to monitor like this one.  It might already exist in the 30+ pages, but probably got buried.

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

NSIDC SIA stood at 8.31 million sq km as of 6/20/2023.

 

Here's where other years stand now:

2022: +80k

2021: -500k

2020: -640k

2019 -390k

2018 +170k

2017: +30k

2016: -340k

2015: -90k

2014: Tied

2013: +140k

2012: -660k

2011: -250k

2010: -370k

2009: +790k

2008: +150k

2007: -530k

 

We've picked up the pace of losses in the past 3 days. We're still on the slow side but not quite as much as a few days ago. There's been some solid losses in the Beaufort/CAA during that time, but the next few days look quite cold there so we may see it slow again...but then it's possible another surge of warmth could advect in for this later weekend and early next week.

[GaWx]

On 6/21/2023 at 8:27 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

NSIDC SIA stood at 8.31 million sq km as of 6/20/2023.

 

Here's where other years stand now:

2022: +80k

2021: -500k

2020: -640k

2019 -390k

2018 +170k

2017: +30k

2016: -340k

2015: -90k

2014: Tied

2013: +140k

2012: -660k

2011: -250k

2010: -370k

2009: +790k

2008: +150k

2007: -530k

 

We've picked up the pace of losses in the past 3 days. We're still on the slow side but not quite as much as a few days ago. There's been some solid losses in the Beaufort/CAA during that time, but the next few days look quite cold there so we may see it slow again...but then it's possible another surge of warmth could advect in for this later weekend and early next week.

 Compared to the update from four days ago, 2023 has fallen back quite a bit vs the 2007-22 average and fallen back behind quite a few other years since 2007:

6/15: +160k/7th highest of 17

6/16: +320k/2nd highest of 17

6/20 (edit to say 6/22 same as 6/20): +150k/tied for 7th highest of 17

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

As of 6/22, NSIDC area was at 8.11 million sq km. Here's how other years looked compared to that on the same date:

2022: -20k

2021: -540k

2020: -450k

2019: -410k

2018: +330k

2017: Tied

2016: -500k

2015: +10k

2014: +50k

2013: +250k

2012: -670k

2011: -160k

2010: -500k

2009: +690k

2008: +30k

2007: -480k

[bluewave]

On 5/26/2023 at 10:10 AM, bluewave said:

Based on these cooler May temperatures across the Arctic, the melt pond season is probably getting off to a slower start. This is what the melt pond model uses to project a September minimum when the data is released in June by Will Gregory CPOM. So this could mean that the 2012 record will be safe for another year. It’s the opposite of the May record warmth which lead to the big melt year in 2020.

 

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

The model run by Will Gregory at CPOM based on May conditions is going for an average September extent of 4.46 million sq km. This is solidly within the range since 2013. The model has been very accurate. So the 2012 record should be safe for another year 

https://www.arcus.org/files/sio/panarctic/2023_june_sio_cpom_ucl_gregory_et_al.pdf

Executive summary" of your Outlook contribution (using 300 words or less) describe how and why your contribution was formulated. To the extent possible, use non-technical language.
This statistical model computes a forecast of pan-Arctic September sea ice extent . Monthly averaged May sea ice concentration and sea-surface temperature fields between 1979 and 2023 were used to create a climate network (based on the approach of Gregory et al 2020). This was then utilised in a Bayesian Linear Regression in order to forecast September extent. The model predicts a pan-Arctic extent of 4.46 million square kilometres. Sea ice concentration data were taken from NSIDC (Cavalieri et al., 1996; Maslanik and Stroeve,1999) and sea-surface temperature data were taken from ERA5 (Hersbach et al., 2019)

Average September extents since 2012

 

2022….4.87

2021……4.92

2020……3.92

2019……4.32

2018…...4.71

2017……4.87

2016……4.72

2015…..4.63

2014…..5.28

2013…..5.35

2012…..3.60

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

On 6/25, NSIDC area was at 7.91 million sq km. Here's where other years compared at the same time:

2022: -110k

2021: -500k

2020: -570k

2019: -620k

2018: +80k

2017: -480k

2016: -570k

2015: -130k

2014: -60k

2013: +20k

2012: -800k

2011: -300k

2010: -910k

2009: +500k

2008: -230k

2007: -550k

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

On 6/29, NSIDC area was at 7.55 million sq km. This is lining up to be a higher retention year in the post-2007 context. Here's how other years compared at this point. I'll have my final forecast out in a day or two.

 

2022: -430k

2021: -390k

2020: -480k

2019: -710k

2018: +60k

2017: -120k

2016: -410k

2015: -20k

2014: -30k

2013: +130k

2012: -940k

2011: -460k

2010: -740k

2009: +480k

2008: +120k

2007: -610k

[GaWx]

On 6/30/2023 at 8:09 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

On 6/29, NSIDC area was at 7.55 million sq km. This is lining up to be a higher retention year in the post-2007 context. Here's how other years compared at this point. I'll have my final forecast out in a day or two.

 

2022: -430k

2021: -390k

2020: -480k

2019: -710k

2018: +60k

2017: -120k

2016: -410k

2015: -20k

2014: -30k

2013: +130k

2012: -940k

2011: -460k

2010: -740k

2009: +480k

2008: +120k

2007: -610k

 The last two days have seen a whopping total of a 410k drop, which is the largest two day drop since at least late May. This is similar to the steep two day drop that occurred on the same dates in 2020. The 7/1/2020 drop, alone, was 340k!
 

 Often after a steep two day drop though, the subsequent few days show a more modest drop. However, 2020 went on to have another three days of steep drops (600k for the total of those three days) for a grand total five day drop of 1.1 million before it abruptly steadied out during the subsequent four days.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The last two days have seen a whopping total of a 410k drop, which is the largest two day drop since at least late May. This is similar to the steep two day drop that occurred on the same dates in 2020. The 7/1/2020 drop, alone, was 340k!
 

 Often after a steep two day drop though, the subsequent few days show a more modest drop. However, 2020 went on to have another three days of steep drops (600k for the total of those three days) for a grand total five day drop of 1.1 million before it abruptly steadied out during the subsequent four days.

Yeah the latest drop the past 2 days is going to put this more toward the middle of the pack in post-2007 than near the top retention years. I’ll have my official forecast out later today or tomorrow but I’m expecting a fairly mundane/boring season with no extreme results (high or low). But there’s always still the chance of a surprise. 

[ORH_wxman]

Official 2023 prediction on Arctic Sea Ice minimums:

Area: 3.1 million sq km (+/- 300k)...this would rank 8th lowest

Extent: 4.7 million sq km (+/- 500k)....this would rank 13th lowest

 

This is based on years of using NSIDC area from the SSMI/S satellite which gets fooled by meltponding into thinking it's open water. This means that we can use NSIDC area as a proxy for meltponding and some of the most robust literature on predicting minimums in advance is using meltponding in May and June.

 

I give more detail on my method here in last year's prediction, but didn't feel the need to repeat it every single year so I will just link it for those who are interested in how I make these predictions:

 

 

I will include the graph I usually post,

Keep in mind that this graph is not a graph of historical minimums....it is simply what 2023 minimum would be if we followed that previous year's melt rate AFTER July 1st. The reason this works fairly well is most of the decadal trend in ice loss has been due to increases in melting prior to July 1st, not after.

But it gives us a nice distribution of possible results if we mirrored previous season's melt rate from post-July 1st.....from this graph, you can see that if we had a post-July 1st melt rate like 2016 (currently the biggest post-July 1st melt on record), then we'd end up with a minimum of 2.65 million sq km....that would still be over 400k above the record minimum in 2012 which is why we can rule out a new record this year. There just wasn't enough melting prior to July 1st to challenge the 2012 record. Likewise, you can see how even a higher retention post-July 1st would still produce a minimum below 4 million sq km....so it is safe to say that we will not have a 4 million sq km min for the first time since 2006. The distribution of this year's possible results looks quite mundane in the post-2007 context...and that is reflected in my predictions above.

 

[GaWx]

On 7/3/2023 at 12:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Official 2023 prediction on Arctic Sea Ice minimums:

Area: 3.1 million sq km (+/- 300k)...this would rank 8th lowest

Extent: 4.7 million sq km (+/- 500k)....this would rank 13th lowest

 

This is based on years of using NSIDC area from the SSMI/S satellite which gets fooled by meltponding into thinking it's open water. This means that we can use NSIDC area as a proxy for meltponding and some of the most robust literature on predicting minimums in advance is using meltponding in May and June.

 

I give more detail on my method here in last year's prediction, but didn't feel the need to repeat it every single year so I will just link it for those who are interested in how I make these predictions:

 

 

I will include the graph I usually post,

Keep in mind that this graph is not a graph of historical minimums....it is simply what 2023 minimum would be if we followed that previous year's melt rate AFTER July 1st. The reason this works fairly well is most of the decadal trend in ice loss has been due to increases in melting prior to July 1st, not after.

But it gives us a nice distribution of possible results if we mirrored previous season's melt rate from post-July 1st.....from this graph, you can see that if we had a post-July 1st melt rate like 2016 (currently the biggest post-July 1st melt on record), then we'd end up with a minimum of 2.65 million sq km....that would still be over 400k above the record minimum in 2012 which is why we can rule out a new record this year. There just wasn't enough melting prior to July 1st to challenge the 2012 record. Likewise, you can see how even a higher retention post-July 1st would still produce a minimum below 4 million sq km....so it is safe to say that we will not have a 4 million sq km min for the first time since 2006. The distribution of this year's possible results looks quite mundane in the post-2007 context...and that is reflected in my predictions above.

 

 The last 7 days ending with July 6th have seen a drop in the Arctic ice area of 1.04 million sq km, which is a pretty hefty 149k/day averaged out. The July 6th level of 6.51 msk is only barely above the 2010s average for July 6th after having been 320k above that average on June 29th.

 In 2022, only 770k was lost from 6/29 to 7/10 or only 70k/day on average. In contrast, 2023 has already lost 1.04 million since 6/29 with still another four days to get to 7/10.

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

On 7/10, NSIDC area stood at 6.11 million sq km, here’s where other years stood on the same date compared to 2023:

2022: +240k

2021: -240k

2020: -380k

2019: -580k

2018: +50k

2017: +220k

2016: -300k

2015: +150k

2014: +440k

2013: +260k

2012: -440k

2011: -40k

2010: -30k

2009: +470k

2008: +370k

2007: -110k

[forkyfork]

that dipole is doing a number 

[so_whats_happening]

I know it is still frowned upon discussing in this thread but when do we start throwing up some flags here on the Antarctic?

[chubbs]

11 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I know it is still frowned upon discussing in this thread but when do we start throwing up some flags here on the Antarctic?

Unfortunately the x (and y) axes don't align below, so the dates don't match. There is evidence of a see-saw with arctic and antarctic moving in opposite directions.  The ocean overturning circulation driven by sea ice formation is a potential see-saw link. Increasing fluctuation is a sign of tipping point behavior. Just speculation of course.

 

[A-L-E-K]

look at it go lol

[SnoSki14]

20 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I know it is still frowned upon discussing in this thread but when do we start throwing up some flags here on the Antarctic?

I remember when the climate change skeptics would use above normal Antarctic sea ice as a way to push back against the scientific consensus. 

What's their excuse now? 

[bdgwx]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I remember when the climate change skeptics would use above normal Antarctic sea ice as a way to push back against the scientific consensus. 

What's their excuse now? 

And keep in mind that the expectation was that sea ice in the SH would actually remain level or even increase through 2030 - 2060 before beginning to decline. So observing a decline so soon and so dramatically obviously raises eyebrows.

[so_whats_happening]

10 hours ago, chubbs said:

Unfortunately the x (and y) axes don't align below, so the dates don't match. There is evidence of a see-saw with arctic and antarctic moving in opposite directions.  The ocean overturning circulation driven by sea ice formation is a potential see-saw link. Increasing fluctuation is a sign of tipping point behavior. Just speculation of course.

 

The Arctic seems off 2012 was the min so it should show the most anomalous not 2020. The bolded is very interesting had not thought of it in that manner and major fluctuations make sense in it being signs of a tipping point. It would be something if the Antarctic over the next 10-20 years sees similar degradation to what the Arctic had and the Arctic just does a slight recovery, not in the sense it goes back to 1970s and 80s levels, just a more inline with the levels of what could be allowed in a positive year with as much warming that has occurred (hope this makes sense). I would think maybe something like 2000s average may be the upper echelon (maybe 90s levels if we get lucky but dont think it is possible with how much warmer oceans are) before another potential tipping point is reached type of deal.

[Typhoon Tip]

23 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I know it is still frowned upon discussing in this thread but when do we start throwing up some flags here on the Antarctic?

I tried lol. 
… The immediate pushback was to start a different thread for the Antarctic but I don’t think it’s really an Antarctic or Arctic issue. I think it’s a global issue? So from my perspective, which nobody asked for admitted…, I think we’re all fucking doomed, and we should be monitoring, right now, everywhere!

Until such time as it can be proven that we are not doomed   

Because we’ve cross the threshold where the onus/burden of proof is now pointed in that direction. We have to prove that it’s not the case  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

How about the ?bad station? around Key W Florida trying to put up a 97° SST.

I think that you can get those temperatures around the southern stretches of the Red Sea. Don’t know about the Key West area for sure, but I know that low 90s is not that uncommon down there. Plus, there is this so-called “loop current” not too far away - it’s basically a very large gyre that rotates and pretty much gobbles up a warm column of water that extends very deep. that all sad… Temperatures are running warm anomalous anyway regardless of low 90s or not.  

Ya, I know this has nothing to do with sea ice but indirectly .., the AMOC is weakening and I think we’re proverbial mere moments from some scientist advancing the notion that there’s a cumulative lag around the SW Atlantic Basin. The idea being … the Gulf Stream is being orchestrated by said weakening, which means it is weakening, too. And thus (perhaps) it’s not draining the heat away from that area as effectively. 

[GaWx]

13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

How about the ?bad station? around Key W Florida trying to put up a 97° SST.

I think that you can get those temperatures around the southern stretches of the Red Sea. Don’t know about the Key West area for sure, but I know that low 90s is not that uncommon down there. Plus, there is this so-called “loop current” not too far away - it’s basically a very large gyre that rotates and pretty much gobbles up a warm column of water that extends very deep. that all sad… Temperatures are running warm anomalous anyway regardless of low 90s or not. 

 The official Key West buoy itself has been showing SSTs in low 90s for many days with ~2F diurnal range. Low 90s SSTs jibe well with recent Key West mean air temps just under 90 since the sea is often slightly warmer. The Key West air temp low this morning was only down to 87, which if it holds up til midnight would tie the record high low for any day back to 1873!

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8724580

 

 The buoy with ~97 SSTs the last few days is not that close to Key West. It is actually Johnson Key, which is 65 miles NE of Key West (not near the main Keys Highway 1 strip) and just S of the SW tip of the peninsula. The reason they've been so much higher than Key West is the very shallow water of a mere swimming pool type depth of ~5'. Due to this shallowness, the SST diurnal range has been 7+ F. The 97s occurred late afternoons/early evenings just after most of the day's solar heating has done its thing on the very shallow water. What many don't realize is that the AM SST lows have been 89-90 F there. So, the mean SST has been ~93-93.5 F, which is pretty close to Key West's mean SST of ~92.

 So, I do believe the 97 SST readings there have likely been pretty close to reality and thus most likely it isn't a "bad" station per se. However, it is admittedly deceptive due to being so shallow and having such a wide diurnal range:
 

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=jkyf1

-------------------

*Edit: The 87 at Key West land station held on as the low for July 12th, which ties the record high low for any date back to 1873! Also, the mean temp of 90.5 turns out to be the hottest mean of any day back to 1873! The old record was 90.0, which was set on 8/4/2007.

 Marathon land station tied its alltime hottest mean of any on record, 92.0. The only other day on record with a mean this hot was 6/8/2019. This was the 32nd day this year and 8th day this month to date that Marathon beat or tied the daily record warm mean! Records go back to 1950.

[Blizzard92]

14 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

The Arctic seems off 2012 was the min so it should show the most anomalous not 2020. The bolded is very interesting had not thought of it in that manner and major fluctuations make sense in it being signs of a tipping point. It would be something if the Antarctic over the next 10-20 years sees similar degradation to what the Arctic had and the Arctic just does a slight recovery, not in the sense it goes back to 1970s and 80s levels, just a more inline with the levels of what could be allowed in a positive year with as much warming that has occurred (hope this makes sense). I would think maybe something like 2000s average may be the upper echelon (maybe 90s levels if we get lucky but dont think it is possible with how much warmer oceans are) before another potential tipping point is reached type of deal.

Hi! The graphs are mine - the data is not off, and the x-axis is the same for both graphs. Note that this is showing the daily sea ice anomalies (which set a new record in 2020 in terms of the absolute magnitude compared to the 1981-2010 average). This is demonstrated more clearly here. This is not showing the actual extent, which did of course reach a minimum in 2012.

[ORH_wxman]

Update:

On 7/12, NSIDC area was 5.91 million sq km. Here's how other years compared:

2022: +350k

2021: -380k

2020: -400k

2019: -580k

2018: +160k

2017: +280k

2016: -270k

2015: +140k

2014: +380k

2013: +230k

2012: -590k

2011: -110k

2010: +20k

2009: +580k

2008: +390k

2007: -140k
 

 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Update:

On 7/12, NSIDC area was 5.91 million sq km. Here's how other years compared:

2022: +350k

2021: -380k

2020: -400k

2019: -580k

2018: +160k

2017: +280k

2016: -270k

2015: +140k

2014: +380k

2013: +230k

2012: -590k

2011: -110k

2010: +20k

2009: +580k

2008: +390k

2007: -140k
 

 

So, 2023 is essentially flat vs the 2007-2022 average as of July 12th.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, GaWx said:

So, 2023 is essentially flat vs the 2007-2022 average as of July 12th.

Yes and this is what the prediction was for the minimum too based on the data at the end of June...very mundane middle-of-the-pack type season in the post-2007 world.

[bdgwx]

@ORH_wxman do you make predictions for NSIDC extent as well? If so what are thoughts on the minimum extent for 2023?

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

@ORH_wxman do you make predictions for NSIDC extent as well? If so what are thoughts on the minimum extent for 2023?

I did make a prediction for NSIDC extent back in my prediction post (I went with 4.8 million sq km). Extent is a little harder to predict because compaction makes a big difference unlike area where compaction wouldn’t change a whole lot. 

In the short term (0-96h), the pattern is pretty good for compaction but the longer term ensembles aren't…however, things can always change in the arctic pretty quickly beyond 5 days. 
 

I personally forecasted a bit higher extent than I might normally would for a 3.1 million sq km area prediction (4.6 or 4.7 million sq km would be more in line with 3.1 area) due to the stronger buffer in the Chukchi region this year and lower area in Hudson Bay which melts out fully anyway…the latter was driving down the area numbers in late June. 
 

The mean pattern in August will likely have a big say in the final extent. If we get a lot of high pressure over the basin (esp skewed a bit toward North American side), then we’ll see a lot of compaction and lower extent…but if we see a lot of low pressure, it will keep the ice dispersed and the extent will stay higher by the time we get to the min in early or mid September. 

[so_whats_happening]

11 hours ago, Blizzard92 said:

Hi! The graphs are mine - the data is not off, and the x-axis is the same for both graphs. Note that this is showing the daily sea ice anomalies (which set a new record in 2020 in terms of the absolute magnitude compared to the 1981-2010 average). This is demonstrated more clearly here. This is not showing the actual extent, which did of course reach a minimum in 2012.

Thank you for clearing that up as it makes much more sense now. Didnt even notice the tiny print in the bottom left of 5 day running mean.