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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume


ORH_wxman
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Off the chart and record-breaking melting on the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Not a big deal in the short-term as most of the melt is reabsorbed on the ice sheet. Not good in the long-term for critical ice sheet components if surface melt becomes more severe.

https://www.climato.uliege.be/cms/c_5652669/fr/climato-antarctica

2024-SMB-fig5.png

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Off the chart and record-breaking melting on the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Not a big deal in the short-term as most of the melt is reabsorbed on the ice sheet. Not good in the long-term for critical ice sheet components if surface melt becomes more severe.
https://www.climato.uliege.be/cms/c_5652669/fr/climato-antarctica
2024-SMB-fig5.thumb.png.5e4e8d5bbc7842cf0f1262f76d51369e.png
Yeah, that is no bueno...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

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On 2/1/2025 at 6:07 AM, chubbs said:

Big storm/warm air surge on the Atlantic side this week have sent arctic sea ice into record territory.

jaxa-arctic-extent.png


One of the least favorable winter patterns we have seen for Arctic sea ice thickness.

 

 

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On 2/1/2025 at 6:07 AM, chubbs said:

Big storm/warm air surge on the Atlantic side this week have sent arctic sea ice into record territory.

jaxa-arctic-extent.png

The annular mode has plummeted deeply negative …

.. that may also have something to do with it 

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10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The annular mode has plummeted deeply negative …

.. that may also have something to do with it 

Yes, up to +20C surface anomalies today, but forecast to start dropping over next couple of days.

 

Screenshot 2025-02-07 at 20-02-41 Climate Reanalyzer.png

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The adverse pattern started to impact sea ice volume near the end of January (updated monthly). With the adverse weather, expect continuing negative volume impact in the first half of February.  Keeping this year #2 behind 2017, another post strong nino year.

piomas-volume-anomaly.png

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On 2/25/2025 at 6:34 AM, chubbs said:

Arctic sea ice hasn't fully recovered from dip in late Jan/early Feb. A record low maxima looking more and more likely.

jaxa-arctic-extent.png

I wonder when arctic sea ice maximum extent will be less than typical historical arctic sea ice minimum extent? I think historically the minimum was around 10-11 million square kilometers, now maximum is 13-14 million square kilometers. One would have to assume that, at some point in the future, the maximum sea ice extent will drop below the historical normal minimum extent. Is it safe to assume that, at that point in time, temperatures over the Arctic Ocean will be warmer in winter than they had been historically during the summertime? Because when there is sea ice cover, temperatures hover near or slightly below freezing, but without sea ice cover, the near surface temperatures will approach that of the open water.

Kinnard_2011_sea_ice_med.jpg

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New record low Arctic sea ice extent for February and a recent paper on increasing Atlantification in the Arctic.


https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/february-made-me-shiver-not-arctic


The average February 2025 Arctic sea ice extent was 13.75 million square kilometers (5.31 million square miles), the lowest February extent in the 47-year satellite record, 220,000 square kilometers (85,000 square miles) below the previous record low February set in 2018. Daily ice growth stalled twice during the month, which helped to contribute to low ice conditions and led to overall ice retreat in the Barents Sea. By the end of the month, extent was low nearly everywhere, the exception being the East Greenland Sea. Extent is far below average in the Labrador Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq7580

Changes associated with atlantification are extensive and fundamental for the state of the high-latitude climate system. The primary impact has been the rapidly diminishing sea ice in the Siberian Arctic over the past decade (Fig. 1, A and BOpens in image viewer).
Here, we used mooring and satellite data to demonstrate the advancement of atlantification into the Siberian Arctic Ocean and its ramifications for the state of the upper ocean, sea ice, and air-sea interactions (Fig. 5Opens in image viewer). In particular, we show that the winter ventilation of the halocline in the eastern Eurasian Basin resulted in more than twofold rate in sea-ice loss caused by oceanic heat fluxes as compared to the 2010s. The transition of the Makarov Basin to conditions similar to those observed in the eastern Eurasian Basin 5 to 7 years ago is another critically important finding (this lag is depicted by  in Fig. 5Opens in image viewer). The powerful ocean-heat/ice-albedo feedback mechanism is the primary cause of these changes (phase 2 of atlantification in Fig. 5Opens in image viewer). Deep ventilation and weak stratification increase upward AW heat fluxes, which promotes the wintertime suppression of sea-ice formation and subsequent more effective summertime reduction of sea ice by an ice-albedo feedback. This complex process was the key to establishing the diminished sea-ice cover in the Siberian Arctic in recent years. In contrast, no deep ventilation of AW heat was found in the eastern parts of the Makarov Basin and East Siberian Sea. Shoaling of the AW and halocline, however, indicates that the eastern Siberian Arctic Ocean is experiencing a preconditioning phase (phase 1 of atlantification in Fig. 5Opens in image viewer) similar to that found in the western Siberian Arctic Ocean in the 2000s. This ongoing transition not only mirrors earlier changes but also sets the stage for broader ecosystem impacts. While it was identified that the intrusion of Atlantic-origin water into the Chukchi Plateau is associated with biogeochemical impacts (33), our analysis reveals that these physical changes—particularly AW shoaling, halocline weakening, and seasonal variability in the Atlantic/Pacific halocline front—are establishing conditions for halocline stability disruptions and increased AW penetration. These atlantification-related physical changes have important ecological implications.
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