Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[DaculaWeather]

A Major SSW event is just now kicking off. Within 5 days we'll see a complete reversal of the westerlies in the stratosphere. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Nov-Feb 2017-2018 will finish the greatest +500mb in the Arctic Circle on record, significantly above number 2. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Feb 10-28 Stratosphere warming to March

 

[donsutherland1]

Arctic Sea Ice Extent:

·    January Average: 12,527,690 square kilometers
·    3rd consecutive year with a record low January average
·    Record low daily figures in January: 81% dates
·    February 1-26 average: 13,379,356 square kilometers (record low)
·    Record low daily figures in February:  88% of dates

Source: JAXA dataset

[Vice-Regent]

[Sugarloaf1989]

17 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

Is that a June outlook?

[roardog]

3 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Is that a June outlook?

Yes and I 100% guarantee that it will not be that warm.

[Vice-Regent]

3 hours ago, roardog said:

Yes and I 100% guarantee that it will not be that warm.

I am skeptical. If anyone has saved output from prior years it would be nice to have a reference. If the PAC is trough-prone you can be sure Greenland will get roasted by sun and rain. The SSTAs are not cold like 2013.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Ok.. look at how this filled in in the north part of Greenland then become an arctic circle block (models were consistently negative anomaly here until a day ago). I think this is the same trend from the Winter and it will be a large arctic ice melt season

[Tornadocane]

Ditto in regards to the member's comments above.  This is trending towards a record low ice minimum. 

[ORH_wxman]

Got a long ways to go before anything becomes too exciting....it's going to come down to weather if you are looking for a record minimum. It's gonna take a massive warm dipole to probably get there given the distribution of ice thickness this winter. Gonna want something that looks kind of like the 2007 pattern....you can see how the thicker ice is all in the Laptev and East Siberian seas.

 

 

[csnavywx]

This May is shaping up to be much different than anything in the in the last several years. Going to get some early snowmelt and melt pond formation if the D4-10 EPS and GEFS and wk. 1-2 CFS are right. Last year, snowmelt didn't start in earnest in the CAB until early July, which left that sector pretty well protected.

[csnavywx]

Yes, a winter like the last two plus a 2012 or 2007-style melt season would get us pretty close to ice-free conditions by the end of Aug.

Need a jump start to the melt season to get it going and we just might get that this year given the forecast over the next two weeks.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It looks now like it may go into a stronger Nino

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Yes, a winter like the last two plus a 2012 or 2007-style melt season would get us pretty close to ice-free conditions by the end of Aug.

Need a jump start to the melt season to get it going and we just might get that this year given the forecast over the next two weeks.

Right now we are getting an impressive May temperature spike in the Arctic. But we have seen in recent years how hostile May conditions reversed just in time for June. Any summer than can follow up on these record warm October to May patterns will be a contender to beat 2012. It's just very difficult to predict when the next big dipole summer will occur.

 

From Twitter:

Arctic temperatures have shot up in recent days, and are likely the warmest on record for this time of year. These temp spikes used to be rare and are now happening much more frequently. Details: wapo.st/2jDkoqV image via @ZLabepic.twitter.com/hmEUTTqkgm

12:31 PM - 7 May 2018

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Right now we are getting an impressive May temperature spike in the Arctic. But we have seen in recent years how hostile May conditions reversed just in time for June. Any summer than can follow up on these record warm October to May patterns will be a contender to beat 2012. It's just very difficult to predict when the next big dipole summer will occur.

 

 

From Twitter:

Arctic temperatures have shot up in recent days, and are likely the warmest on record for this time of year. These temp spikes used to be rare and are now happening much more frequently. Details: wapo.st/2jDkoqV image via @ZLabepic.twitter.com/hmEUTTqkgm

12:31 PM - 7 May 2018

 

Yep...I'm def a bit more interested in what happens late this month and into early June...that's when the meltpond formation starts ramping up a lot. The total meltpond formation in May does have a good correlation, but a lot of that occurs in the final week to 10 days of the month. If we can sustain the warmer pattern into late May, then it will definitely help...even if we have a flip in June. 2016 saw a very warm May (warmer than 2011 and 2012) but it flipped in June back to just slightly above normal temps and it likely cost us a run at the record...but that May still helped with getting momentum into the season and we finished with a top 3 lowest min. It probably helped too that 2016 was the warmest refreeze season on record up there. It was nearly 2C warmer than 2015 (Oct-Apr area-weighted average)...and we've sustained the warmth into the next two winters, though this past winter wasn't quite as warm...it was about half a degree C cooler than 2016, but still warmer than all previous ones before 2016 and 2017.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles are showing a classic dipole pattern setting up in early June...low pressure over Kara/Laptev region with high pressure over the Beaufort and CAA. If that verifies, we would have a good jump start to the melt season in June for the first time in years.

[nzucker]

On 5/21/2018 at 11:40 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles are showing a classic dipole pattern setting up in early June...low pressure over Kara/Laptev region with high pressure over the Beaufort and CAA. If that verifies, we would have a good jump start to the melt season in June for the first time in years.

How does melt ponding look at this point in May?

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

How does melt ponding look at this point in May?

We don't have good real time meltponding data unfortunately. We'll prob have to wait until early June when Schroeder gives an update (he's the guy who authored the original paper in 2014 on melt ponding).

The month stated off warm in the arctic, but the melt ponds typically don't get going until later in the month in the peripheral areas....and the past 7-14 days have not been very warm in the peripheral areas like the Kara, Laptev or the Beaufort where it's been an ice box. The Chukchi has been the exception...so that might be where to watch. The Laptev may try and get a good shot of warmth this week over the next few days.

[nzucker]

11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We don't have good real time meltponding data unfortunately. We'll prob have to wait until early June when Schroeder gives an update (he's the guy who authored the original paper in 2014 on melt ponding).

The month stated off warm in the arctic, but the melt ponds typically don't get going until later in the month in the peripheral areas....and the past 7-14 days have not been very warm in the peripheral areas like the Kara, Laptev or the Beaufort where it's been an ice box. The Chukchi has been the exception...so that might be where to watch. The Laptev may try and get a good shot of warmth this week over the next few days.

Will, the maps I'm seeing are showing relatively low heights over the Arctic and overall much cooler temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere compared to recent extreme warmth...this has a weak dipole signature but still looks chilly over the North Pole and parts of the Canadian Archipelago/Greenland...the rest of the Arctic would probably be near average in this pattern:

[ORH_wxman]

7 hours ago, nzucker said:

Will, the maps I'm seeing are showing relatively low heights over the Arctic and overall much cooler temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere compared to recent extreme warmth...this has a weak dipole signature but still looks chilly over the North Pole and parts of the Canadian Archipelago/Greenland...the rest of the Arctic would probably be near average in this pattern:

 

Yeah recently, it's been colder over the arctic versus the first week of the month.

 

There looks to be a dipole still trying to set up as we head into June, but the sig is def weaker than it was a few days ago on the Euro ensembles....it shows more low pressure poking up from the CAA and also hanging back down from the Kara to try and go over the pole. It still has the general low pressure over the Kara area and the general high pressure over the Beaufort, but the high is covering less area than before. If we end up with some low pressure over the pole with a smaller high over the Beaufort, then the sensible wx impact of the pattern will be greatly diminished versus a true dipole blocking pattern. For bigger impact, I want to see that high sprawl to the east toward Greenland the low pressure over the Kara shift a little more toward the Barents....really start churning that fram export and also help the wind come more off Siberia.

 

 

[nzucker]

On 5/23/2018 at 11:18 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah recently, it's been colder over the arctic versus the first week of the month.

 

There looks to be a dipole still trying to set up as we head into June, but the sig is def weaker than it was a few days ago on the Euro ensembles....it shows more low pressure poking up from the CAA and also hanging back down from the Kara to try and go over the pole. It still has the general low pressure over the Kara area and the general high pressure over the Beaufort, but the high is covering less area than before. If we end up with some low pressure over the pole with a smaller high over the Beaufort, then the sensible wx impact of the pattern will be greatly diminished versus a true dipole blocking pattern. For bigger impact, I want to see that high sprawl to the east toward Greenland the low pressure over the Kara shift a little more toward the Barents....really start churning that fram export and also help the wind come more off Siberia.

 

 

It's hard to get a strong high pressure over Greenland with the near constant vortex near Hudson Bay. Some of the long range GFS runs have shown a ridge poking into Greenland from the east, however. Do you think the PV may finally drop further south and be forced out of the Baffin/Hudson Bay region?

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, nzucker said:

It's hard to get a strong high pressure over Greenland with the near constant vortex near Hudson Bay. Some of the long range GFS runs have shown a ridge poking into Greenland from the east, however. Do you think the PV may finally drop further south and be forced out of the Baffin/Hudson Bay region?

The ensembles are tryng to split the PV and have one half over the Kara region and the other half over Baffin Island...with the latter weakening and becoming less of an influence. We see some weak signs of blocking trying to get into Greenland from the east as you said.

I'd def be in the "wait and see" camp though. We've seen this a lot in recent summers, where the ensembles try and do something, but every time, the PV just sort of reconsolidates over the CAA/Greenland corridor. I'd want to see a good dipole get within 7 or 8 days on the ensembles to start really thinking about a different pattern this summer. I'd also add that the GEFS are more enthusiastic about a dipole pattern than the EPS.

[nzucker]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The ensembles are tryng to split the PV and have one half over the Kara region and the other half over Baffin Island...with the latter weakening and becoming less of an influence. We see some weak signs of blocking trying to get into Greenland from the east as you said.

I'd def be in the "wait and see" camp though. We've seen this a lot in recent summers, where the ensembles try and do something, but every time, the PV just sort of reconsolidates over the CAA/Greenland corridor. I'd want to see a good dipole get within 7 or 8 days on the ensembles to start really thinking about a different pattern this summer. I'd also add that the GEFS are more enthusiastic about a dipole pattern than the EPS.

It still looks like just a moderate melt pattern unless the PV over Baffin Island loses all influence. It's rare to get such a widespread high pressure extending from the Beaufort to Greenland, as we had in 2012. The usual response to ridging over Alaska is lower heights and associated PV in the Baffin region.

The PV has been very stubborn in recent summers. With early indications that it is re-establishing in an environment of lower overall hemispheric heights, I remain skeptical of a 2012/2007 melt unless we see major changes.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Getting progressively warmer but a lot of meh

[forkyfork]

we need a pdo shift to break 2012

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3011

[bluewave]

Only the 2nd time all year that the CA has colder than normal temperatures. As in recent years, the weather pattern is becoming less hostile near the start of June.

http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only the 2nd time all year that the CA has colder than normal temperatures. As in recent years, the weather pattern is becoming less hostile near the start of June.

http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

 

This period was originally forecasted over a week ago to be pretty warm, but it never seems to pan out that way the last few years around this time. There does look to be some decent warmth that hits the Beaufort and Chukchi this weekend....but on the other hand, the dipole pattern forecasted by the euro ensembles has mostly disintegrated and now they have a low over the CAB.

Cold up there now as we end May.

 

 

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This period was originally forecasted over a week ago to be pretty warm, but it never seems to pan out that way the last few years around this time. There does look to be some decent warmth that hits the Beaufort and Chukchi this weekend....but on the other hand, the dipole pattern forecasted by the euro ensembles has mostly disintegrated and now they have a low over the CAB.

Cold up there now as we end May.

 

 

 

This less hostile summer pattern could be a result of  the weaker Atlantic overturning and +PDO since 2013. Pretty much the opposite of the raging 2007-2012 JJA dipole pattern.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantic-conveyor-belt-has-slowed-15-per-cent-since-mid-twentieth-century

https://ams.confex.com/ams/94Annual/webprogram/Paper235210.html

The circulation pattern appears to be further modulated in high latitudes by residual sea ice coverage around the Canadian Archipelago and by a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.