Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[chubbs]

Here is a chart of global ice volume from Wipneus. Roughly 5000 cubic kilometers of ice has been lost this year. That is 5 trillion tons of ice. It took 4 times 10 to the 20th power calories to melt that ice or roughly 4% of the earth's typical energy gain from GHG. Considering that it has happened in less than half a year that is a significant heat loss for atmosphere and ocean surface waters this fall.

[chubbs]

PIOMAS data for December is in.  In January, 2016 started with higher sea ice volume than 2011, 2012 and 2013 but ended with record low December volume. Eyeballing the chart,  it looks like 2016 is the worst year ever in terms of sea ice volume lost. Very unusual, in that lack of gain in the non-summer months drove the the decline instead of big summer losses.

[csnavywx]

Yes, highly unusual. We've also matched the freezing degree day deficit of the entirety of the last (record warm) freezing season and it's only January. Completely unlike any other winter.

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

Yes, highly unusual. We've also matched the freezing degree day deficit of the entirety of the last (record warm) freezing season and it's only January. Completely unlike any other winter.

Will be interesting to see the studies to come on this years pattern. Open water and/or nino can't be the full explanation because they haven't triggered this behavior in the past and conditions are even worse so far this year despite the switch to nina.

[csnavywx]

6 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Will be interesting to see the studies to come on this years pattern. Open water and/or nino can't be the full explanation because they haven't triggered this behavior in the past and conditions are even worse so far this year despite the switch to nina.

Pretty speculative, but it could be an atmospheric heat transport feedback. There was a paper about a Blue Arctic Ocean experiment that showed an increasing propensity for AHT feedback with decreasing fall/early winter ice coverage and thickness. Makes me wonder if there's some sort of threshold behavior at work.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

 looking at long range forecasts... we may of reached the yearly peak already. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Bacon Strips said:

 looking at long range forecasts... we may of reached the yearly peak already. 

Some temporary declines in January have occurred in the past. Statistically, it is almost improbable that we have already reached the peak Arctic sea ice extent figure (>4.5 sigma event). During the 2003-16 period, the earliest peak was February 15 (2015). The latest was March 31 (2003 and 2010). The mean and median dates were March 10.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some temporary declines in January have occurred in the past. Statistically, it is almost improbable that we have already reached the peak Arctic sea ice extent figure (>4.5 sigma event). During the 2003-16 period, the earliest peak was February 15 (2015). The latest was March 31 (2003 and 2010). The mean and median dates were March 10.

 

true, but this has been a very odd / mild season.  

if wrong, I doubt i'll be wrong by much. 

[csnavywx]

We have probably at least 6 weeks as Don alluded to. The sun has to return to the peripheral seas before max can be attained. Getting it in mid-January is nearly impossible as heat lag hasn't finished cycling off of the solstice.

[csnavywx]

My main concern this year will be the Chukchi/Beaufort and Barents/Kara area. Ice in those areas is (very) abnormally thin and likely won't make it past ~80-100cm before spring. The fact that it took until the first week of January for the Chukchi to finally finish freezing over isn't a great sign. One bad weather spell in May/June will quickly erode what used to be a bulwark for the CAB. Gotta hope for a 2013 or 2014 style summer to get out of this one.

[chubbs]

This freezing degree day chart, from ASIF,  integrates the DMI above 80 temperature curve. This freezing year is unique and to this date much warmer than last year. We are roughly one month behind recent years with two months of hard winter to go.

[csnavywx]

That's pretty much how I envision getting the first near ice-free September day. Combine a winter like this one (with a finish below 3500) and a summer like 2007 and you're pretty much there. Maybe not quite -- but it's pretty close. That extra 30-40cm of missing ice growth on the edges will make all the difference in the world in getting the outer periphery to melt very early on, as in 2-3 weeks earlier. That puts the CAB under the gun in July rather than August -- with a higher sun angle and a longer period of time to heat the peripheral seas.

Of course, it's going take a whopper of a summer to get this to happen this early, but in 10-15 years -- not so much. It seems the ability to get a warm enough winter to stifle ice growth enough to put away all of the ice in a single summer is close to being in reach. That was a topic of discussion on this board last year. I just didn't think we'd be seeing a winter this warm so early.

[chubbs]

On 1/9/2017 at 8:53 AM, csnavywx said:

Pretty speculative, but it could be an atmospheric heat transport feedback. There was a paper about a Blue Arctic Ocean experiment that showed an increasing propensity for AHT feedback with decreasing fall/early winter ice coverage and thickness. Makes me wonder if there's some sort of threshold behavior at work.

Yes I posted a link to that paper earlier. This is an area of increasing research following up on Jennifer Francis' work. Here is a recent paper on jet stream meandering with further support for Francis' ideas. Open source and with a video (second link) from the author giving an overview.

" The most robust changes are detected for autumn which has seen a pronounced increase in strongly meandering patterns at the hemispheric level as well as over the Eurasian sector. "

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028/meta

http://bcove.me/zccol3mi

[csnavywx]

Thanks for those links. Interesting results.

Trick now will be pinpointing which mechanisms are most important and/or which are providing synergistic interactions or feedbacks. I have a feeling the Blue Ocean experiment was on to something, but we'll see with time.

[csnavywx]

Another ice destroyer being modeled on the Atlantic side in a few days. Hits the Kara/Barents pretty hard, but pulls warm air all the way across the pole too. Might turbocharge Fram export depending on the track (a la recent runs of the Euro). At least the Chukchi gets a break from the relentless blowtorching.

[pazzo83]

Umm

 

[csnavywx]

Stall speed again on extent. No net increase over the last 9 days. Will probably remain at/near the level it is now for another week with the upcoming warmth and storms as the Atlantic side is chewed up again for the umpteenth time this winter.

[Snow_Miser]

As was mentioned by csnavywx, anomalous warmth looks to return to the Kara Sea (and much of the Arctic), alongside a low approaching ~960 hPa. Not only is this a favorable pattern for Fram export of whatever multiyear ice remains, but temperatures will run close to 30 degrees Celsius above normal once again for portions of the Arctic.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Snow_Miser said:

 

 

On JAXA, the latest figure was almost 500,000 sq. km. below the previous daily record low extent.

[forkyfork]

lowest dec volume on record

[Snow_Miser]

Loss of -12K yesterday on NSIDC. With an unfavorable pattern for ice growth persisting, I don't expect significant ice growth for at least another couple days. 

[chubbs]

Grabbed this chart from ASIF. Despite the different enso and NHemi temp and circulation,  2017 isn't far from 2016.

[Newman]

Could Someone explain why Greenland ice is at a record level with regards to surface mass balance? If there is any sign for this to decrease and get back to normal levels, what is it? 

[PhillipS]

29 minutes ago, Newman said:

Could Someone explain why Greenland ice is at a record level with regards to surface mass balance? If there is any sign for this to decrease and get back to normal levels, what is it? 

More open Arctic ocean -> increased evaporation -> increased water vapor -> increased precipitation.

But GIS Surface Mass Balance is only half of the situation.  It does not include dynamic GIS processes such as glacial calving, basal melting, or meltwater runoff.  Look at the Total Mass Change data for the complete situation.  

As you can see, the GIS has lost around 3,600 km3 (3,600 Gtons) of ice since 2003.

 

 

 

[pazzo83]

 

Dude Arctic sea ice is flat-lining in the middle of freaking January:

[bluewave]

 

[csnavywx]

Very cold conditions over the Bering and Okhotsk have allowed extent to catch up and pass 2006, offsetting losses on the Atlantic side. The Pacific side should warm up over the next two days and put a halt to any further advances there, but we should finally see a relaxation of the very warm conditions near the pole for a bit.

[pazzo83]

It's going the wrong way again.

 

[csnavywx]

In other news -- Antarctic sea ice extent is down to 2.51M on NSIDC, lowest on record for the date and 7th place against the all-time minimum of 2.26M set on 2/27/97.

Area at 1.87M vs mins of 1.24M in 1993 and 1.50 in 1984.

[csnavywx]

Feb 1st update:

 

 

Conditions continue to deteriorate vs other years. The longer range forecasts for the first 2 weeks of Feb. look terrible for almost the entire basin. Some improvement is forecast for the Bering Sea and Beaufort areas next week, meaning extent numbers are likely to climb back towards the pack:

 

 

Volume gains will continue to be slow. We're on track for a -1700 to -1900 FDD freezing season (using 80N+ temps as baseline), far below any previous winter. With 2 weeks of hostile re-freeze conditions forecast, only about a month remains for significant volume gains heading into the melt season.

 

Despite the one decent cold spell over on the Pacific side, the ice there is still quite thin:

 

 

Time is running low for the peripheral seas. Without a recovery soon, these areas aren't likely to survive very long during the melting season without a 2009/2013 style summer. A below average (2016-like) June isn't going to cut it. With the sun returning in a few short weeks, any remaining open water likely will not freeze and will start absorbing insolation earlier than at any time seen in recent history.