Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Good question, because if you play his video at 0:30 it shows the Wales Sea Ice Webcam as down and he seems to imply someone is hiding the ice growth. That cam actually works just fine and shows open ocean, its just a different link: http://www.alaskawebcams.org/barrow.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 28, 2016 Author Share Posted September 28, 2016 This September has seen the largest increase from the minimum on record with still 3 days to go in the month. It is also in contention for the largest net gain of ice in the month (Sept 1st to Sept 30th). So this has definitely been a pretty remarkable refreeze thus far. Should be a very warm autumn with all the latent heat release going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 18 hours ago, bluewave said: Here comes the annual October spike in Arctic Amplification as the refreeze releases heat back into the atmosphere under strong blocking. Looks like Siberia will be the big winner in the warm Arctic very little cold for the continents pattern. The arctic had almost no issues until the mid to late 1990's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Jonger said: The arctic had almost no issues until the mid to late 1990's. Is this why Alaska is having a warm up with the 0C isotherm moving well north into the Arctic this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Is this why Alaska is having a warm up with the 0C isotherm moving well north into the Arctic this week? What does that have to do with my comment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 51 minutes ago, Jonger said: What does that have to do with my comment? I meant to quote the Bluewave post, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Saw this Wipneus plot of PIOMASS minimum volume at the ASIF. This year ended up close to 2010 and 2011 and not far below the linear trendline. If we follow the linear trend, 2012 will be a normal year by 2022. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 8, 2016 Share Posted October 8, 2016 what a crazy melt season. i guess these things are more prone to happening with thinner ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 forecast still looks kinda shady (warm) , opposite the greenland end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 the odd looking warmth to continue. it looks so weird being branched off like that. wheres Global Warmer been? long time no see. he usually goes crazy over these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 16 hours ago, Bacon Strips said: the odd looking warmth to continue. it looks so weird being branched off like that. wheres Global Warmer been? long time no see. he usually goes crazy over these things. Lots of icepack getting destroyed, demolished, obliterated, who's going to give a play by play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 6 hours ago, bluewave said: This was the biggest freeze slowdown that we ever saw during the month of October. Extent got very close to 2007 and 2012. you make it sound like it won't pass 2012. which it's extremely close to currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Does this have any bearing on how fast next summer's melt may happen with such a late start the re-freeze. I guess that ice thickness overall would be less with a shorter winter season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 9 hours ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Does this have any bearing on how fast next summer's melt may happen with such a late start the re-freeze. I guess that ice thickness overall would be less with a shorter winter season? negative, as the same was expected to occur this summer...but never panned out. As an unusually cold pattern this summer, made up for the unusually warm pattern over the arctic from January - March. either way, I agree with Blue on how odd things have become with October so far. Shows how quick just 15 days could throw a monkey-wrench into things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 On 10/17/2016 at 3:55 PM, Sugarloaf1989 said: Does this have any bearing on how fast next summer's melt may happen with such a late start the re-freeze. I guess that ice thickness overall would be less with a shorter winter season? It probably doesn't help to have such warm temps the last month or two, but there's lots of other more important factors at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 another warmup in the arctic looking possible in the 4 to 7 day range... while at the same time, an unusual cool blast to hit the NE U.S. what was unusual about the October 1st to 15th pattern....was how it was warm in the U.S. the same time. meaning it must of been unusually cool in another part of the globe at that time. (didn't look at models then) also... yikes - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 Wow models continue to show a lot of warmth near the polls in the long range. This year has just been insane record warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted October 22, 2016 Share Posted October 22, 2016 On 10/21/2016 at 3:35 PM, Bacon Strips said: another warmup in the arctic looking possible in the 4 to 7 day range... while at the same time, an unusual cool blast to hit the NE U.S. what was unusual about the October 1st to 15th pattern....was how it was warm in the U.S. the same time. meaning it must of been unusually cool in another part of the globe at that time. (didn't look at models then) I think the area in the former U.S.S.R has been pretty cold lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 41 minutes ago, Amped said: Nothing but red over the poles Isn't that 240h Euro map valid for Oct.3rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2016 Share Posted October 23, 2016 26 minutes ago, HailMan06 said: Isn't that 240h Euro map valid for Oct.3rd? Hurricane Mathew linking problems are back, or never went away in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 This is the latest I've seen the ESS stay open like this. We're now 400k+ below the previous record on extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 42 minutes ago, csnavywx said: This is the latest I've seen the ESS stay open like this. We're now 400k+ below the previous record on extent. IMO what's happening right now is just as wild as the 2012 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2016 Author Share Posted October 27, 2016 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: IMO what's happening right now is just as wild as the 2012 min Fastest rebound/gain on record in September and then the slowest Oct on record...really bizarre autumn so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 30 minutes ago, forkyfork said: IMO what's happening right now is just as wild as the 2012 min Definitely agree. I think it will be particularly interesting to see the PIOMAS volume/thickness numbers for October. Although now we can get a glimpse at the CryoSat-2 season: http://www.cpom.ucl.ac.uk/csopr/seaice.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Per Jaxa, looks like antarctic extent is also at a record low. First time ever for both poles at same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerakoter1984 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Is there a possibility of an inter-hemispheric temperature variability cycle coming into play here? Basically south pole warming and north pole cooling in the near future? May be a stupid question, but when you see weird stuff, is there a better time to ask a weird question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Dr. Cohen: " One area to note on the North Atlantic side is in the Barents-Kara Seas, where negative sea ice anomalies have been growing. Recent research has shown that regional anomalies are important and the sea ice region most highly correlated with the winter AO is the Barents-Kara seas region where low Arctic sea ice favors a negative winter AO. Given that sea ice is running well below normal, this currently favors more extensive Eurasian snow cover in the coming weeks, followed by a strengthened Siberian high and a weakened polar vortex/negative AO this upcoming winter. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 This just out (behind a paywall) . Timely for this fall's unusual arctic circulation. Note positive feedback between sea ice loss and circulation changes leading to increased heat transport to arctic. On the atmospheric response experiment to a Blue Arctic Ocean Tetsu Nakamura1,2,*, Koji Yamazaki1,2, Meiji Honda3, Jinro Ukita3, Ralf Jaiser4, Dörthe Handorf4 and Klaus Dethloff4 Abstract We demonstrated atmospheric responses to a reduction in Arctic sea ice via simulations in which Arctic sea ice decreased stepwise from the present-day range to an ice-free range. In all cases, the tropospheric response exhibited a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like pattern. An intensification of the climatological planetary-scale wave due to the present-day sea ice reduction on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean induced stratospheric polar vortex weakening and the subsequent negative AO. Conversely, strong Arctic warming due to ice-free conditions across the entire Arctic Ocean induced a weakening of the tropospheric westerlies corresponding to a negative AO without troposphere-stratosphere coupling, for which the planetary-scale wave response to a surface heat source extending to the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean was responsible. Because the resultant negative AO-like response was accompanied by secondary circulation in the meridional plane, atmospheric heat transport into the Arctic increased, accelerating the Arctic amplification. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL070526/abstract Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 NSIDC extent for Oct 29 from Mohyu blog. (1000 of square km) Arctic Antarctic Total 2015 8444 17748 26192 2016 7111 16620 23731 2016 has 2461 x 1000 sq km or 9.4% less sea ice than this date last year. This is roughly 0.5% of the earth's surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 I think this speaks for itself... (from Twitter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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