August 2016 Discussion/Obs

[BxEngine]

13 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I believe the nam..and mt hollys disco was all about heavy rainfall

Oh. 

 

 

 

 

 

last 4 runs of the NAM. 

[Rjay]

41 minutes ago, doncat said:

Some will receive  good rains, some wont...it's the norm for summer time convective  systems...some will just never understand that I guess.

Yup. I'm not sure why this even has to be said again.

[BxEngine]

Pretty heavy rains right now. Should get me to 3/4" or so i think.

[Cfa]

0.06" this evening. Pitiful.

My monthly total is still below half of an inch.

[winterwarlock]

sorry my bad, it wasnt the NAM

 

here is the Mt Holly disco which was bullish on heavy rainfall..also heavy rain was mentioned in my 7 day forecast

 

Both fronts will likely serve as lifting mechanisms for the
development of showers and thunderstorms to our west that then
move through our region in the afternoon hours. The abundance of
moisture is shown in the modeled PW values of over 2 inches along
with a deep moist layer in modeled soundings. Both of the aspects
support the likelihood for heavy rainfall with thunderstorms that
move through, maintaining hvy rain wording in the products.

In terms of any thunderstorms becoming severe, both the
instability and shear reflect a more marginal possibility. Modeled
CAPE values are around 1,000 J/KG in the afternoon with modestly
steep low level lapse rates. However, a lack of dry air in the
sounding is present as well. While a few thunderstorms with strong
or damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out it is a more limited
threat than that of heavy rainfall at this time. Northern parts of
our region will be near the triple point (intersection of fronts),
modeled helicity values particularly on the NAM 00z run increase
in the lowest 1KM of the sounding (over 100 m2/s2). Some turning
of winds near the surface and looping in the hodographs are
present as well. These aspects of the sounding data suggest a
tornado can not be ruled out from the Lehigh Valley into northern
NJ. This possibility wains quickly further south away from the
expected position of the triple point.

Showers and thunderstorms will start to end from west to east as
the cold front enters the picture. Many spots could pick up a
quick inch or even more of rainfall leading to ponding of water on
roads and other localized flooding issues. Outdoor plans have the
highest chance of being rain free in the morning with chances
going downhill by early afternoon west of Philly and mid afternoon
east.

[uncle W]

counting today NYC has gotten some rainfall 10 of the last 12 days...the total is just over 2" which is unimpressive but it shows how humid its been for the last two weeks...

[BxEngine]

Heavy rain causing building basements to flood and a parking lot of cars to be partially submerged in central Rockland. 

[WEATHERBUFF]

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

when was your hottest temperature in 2014 and 2015?...I have a place now near Dingmans Ferry Pa and the hottest its been there is 93 in July...

I live near Pleasant Mt Pa and I believe the hottest we've been the last 4 years has been 89.

[BombsAway1288]

3 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

sorry my bad, it wasnt the NAM

 

here is the Mt Holly disco which was bullish on heavy rainfall..also heavy rain was mentioned in my 7 day forecast

 

Both fronts will likely serve as lifting mechanisms for the
development of showers and thunderstorms to our west that then
move through our region in the afternoon hours. The abundance of
moisture is shown in the modeled PW values of over 2 inches along
with a deep moist layer in modeled soundings. Both of the aspects
support the likelihood for heavy rainfall with thunderstorms that
move through, maintaining hvy rain wording in the products.

In terms of any thunderstorms becoming severe, both the
instability and shear reflect a more marginal possibility. Modeled
CAPE values are around 1,000 J/KG in the afternoon with modestly
steep low level lapse rates. However, a lack of dry air in the
sounding is present as well. While a few thunderstorms with strong
or damaging wind gusts can not be ruled out it is a more limited
threat than that of heavy rainfall at this time. Northern parts of
our region will be near the triple point (intersection of fronts),
modeled helicity values particularly on the NAM 00z run increase
in the lowest 1KM of the sounding (over 100 m2/s2). Some turning
of winds near the surface and looping in the hodographs are
present as well. These aspects of the sounding data suggest a
tornado can not be ruled out from the Lehigh Valley into northern
NJ. This possibility wains quickly further south away from the
expected position of the triple point.

Showers and thunderstorms will start to end from west to east as
the cold front enters the picture. Many spots could pick up a
quick inch or even more of rainfall leading to ponding of water on
roads and other localized flooding issues. Outdoor plans have the
highest chance of being rain free in the morning with chances
going downhill by early afternoon west of Philly and mid afternoon
east.

So you slam Mt. Holly for forecasting rain (which it did materialize in the majority of their forecast area anyway), but when they forecast the lower end of snow totals leading up to a storm or predict higher temps than anybody else you hug them and sing their praises. Talk about biased!

[doncat]

Only 0.10" here yesterday and 1.20" for the month.

[bluewave]

One of the longest daily minimum streaks of 75 or greater around the area comes to an end at LGA with 14 days.

8/8....75

8/9....75

8/10...76

8/11...78

8/12...76

8/13...84

8/14...81

8/15...78

8/16...78

8/17...79

8/18...75

8/19...77

8/20...75

8/21...76

[Brian5671]

Beautful morning out there with the passage of the front.  Windows open for the first time in a long time.  Looks we get 3-4 nice days before the bermuda high sends in higher levels of humidity.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models get us back to upper 80's to maybe 90 in the hotspots later this week before the next front drops temps back a bit.

Still an above normal temperature pattern, but all the big highs sliding across and to the east of New England won't allow a repeat 

of the major heat earlier this month with more onshore flow.

wonder if we'll see a 'cane somewhere off the SE coast with all that high pressure to the north?

[Cfa]

11 hours ago, Cfa said:

0.06" this evening. Pitiful.

My monthly total is still below half of an inch.

Woke up to an additional 0.13" overnight, which makes yesterday the wettest day of the month with 0.22".

Also dropped to 70 this morning, which is the coolest it's been since 08/05 when the low was 68.

[Fantom X]

Ended up with 0.95" overnight which is also my monthly total rainfall. 

[JerseyWx]

Wonder if areas like Saranac Lake and Lake Placid can dip into the 30s?  Forecast is 54° here, but far western areas in NJ should get into the 40s.

[NJwx85]

Had 1.66" of rain IMBY yesterday.

[Morris]

79 at the helipad. Outlier

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Wonder if areas like Saranac Lake and Lake Placid can dip into the 30s?  Forecast is 54° here, but far western areas in NJ should get into the 40s.

Saranac Lake has forecasted low of 44. We'll see.

[snywx]

Winds are picking up now... Nice cool 72 out there. Forecasted low of 49 for tonight.

[Brian5671]

struggling to get into the upper 70's here.  Should be some great sleeping weather tonight.

[dWave]

warm but refreshing. 80 here. dewpt 58.

felt good to get below 70.  Rarely gets below 75 in recent weeks.

[JerseyWx]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

Saranac Lake has forecasted low of 44. We'll see.

 

Should be close.  Amazing how much it feels like September out, 74° and so dry.

[Sundog]

On Sunday, August 21, 2016 at 6:47 AM, bluewave said:

That's been the pattern recently with the record warm SST and dew point regime here. The sea breeze boundaries have been setting up very

close to the North Shore in recent weeks. Last week we saw the tornado on the North Fork and another 5 inch rainfall max a few miles further

north over the Sound.

You can get lucky with MODIS today when an event happens right at the time of the daily satellite pass.

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/

 

Thank you very much!

[dmillz25]

Maybe low 60s here?

[nesussxwx]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Maybe low 60s here?

Probably, not sure how the correlation exactly works, but the low here tonight is forecasted to be 57F. Usually the city is about 4-6 degrees warmer, I think the city sees lower-mid 60s tonight.

[snywx]

Currently 61/46 here.. Upper 40s is a good possibility

[Fantom X]

despite strong off-shore winds today, SSTs are still around 77° ; I was expecting some up-welling today to bring it down closer to normal but am surprised it's still at 77

[dmillz25]

1 hour ago, UnionWX said:

Probably, not sure how the correlation exactly works, but the low here tonight is forecasted to be 57F. Usually the city is about 4-6 degrees warmer, I think the city sees lower-mid 60s tonight.

Low of 61 here forecasted

[Wxnyc]

Here in my summer home in the Catskills mountains near Liberty , N.Y. at 1,520 feet ,it was a cool day, only reached 66 with a brisk west/northwest wind. Winds died down this evening and temps are dropping fast , 55 here now with a dew point of 46. I would not be surprised to see it bottom out at 45-48 overnight. I go back to Brooklyn in a week and it could take 3 months to get a temperature reading in the 40s there again.