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August 2016 Discussion/Obs


dmillz25

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16 hours ago, HailMan06 said:

LI looks like the FL peninsula during the rainy season.

That's been the pattern recently with the record warm SST and dew point regime here. The sea breeze boundaries have been setting up very

close to the North Shore in recent weeks. Last week we saw the tornado on the North Fork and another 5 inch rainfall max a few miles further

north over the Sound.

14 hours ago, Sundog said:

Where did you get such high quality images that are so recent?

You can get lucky with MODIS today when an event happens right at the time of the daily satellite pass.

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see all that record warm water off the East Coast doing it's job keeping the WAR stronger than the long range models have been showing.

We should see more 90's again by later next week as the WAR builds again. Not as hot as the recent heat wave, but warm enough to guarantee

several stations finish with their 8th top ten warmest month since May 2015.

 

This is why blocking is so critical here in the winter. We have been seeing recently the lack of blocking in December and the WAR running

the table for record to historic warmth since December 2012. Blocking has followed in JFM and the record warm SST's fueled record

snowstorms as the ridge was beaten down by the record blocking.

 

old run

 

 

 

new run stronger

 

 

The period beginning on/around 8/25 through 9/2 looks impressive or late season heat.  You wonder if it trend hotter and we see a couple-few days with widespread mid/upper 90s in that timeframe.  

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models will trend warmer if they can turn the winds more SW instead of S to SSE that they are currently showing. They currently have HP extending  down across

the Canadian Maritimes and Eastern New England. If the Bermuda high can take over, then the local hot spots could make a run on mid 90's instead of the 

low 90's the current Euro is showing. 

That"s the coastal plain, I doubt inland areas especially elevated ones see anymore 90's.

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This warmth is the new normal, you don't get a lengthy string of warmest months unless you've jumped the needle. I expect more mid 90s well into September, those very warm SSTs pretty much guarantee it. 

Pretty much. This weeks cool down will produce 1 or 2 average days at best before we're right back above. Mid 80s is now above average

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the hottest temperature of the year in NYC came in September the last two years...it was over 30 years since September had the hottest temperature before 2014...1914 and 1915 had back to back years with the hottest temperature coming in September...1931 and 1932 also...1929-1932 had three out of four years...If we see the hottest temp again in September it will be the first time that has happened three years in a row...

NYC's highest temperature and month.

2015...........97.................September

2014...........92.................September

2013...........98.................July
2012...........100...............July
2011...........104...............July
2010...........103...............July
2009...........92.................April/Aug.
2008...........96.................June/July
2007...........92.................July/August
2006...........97.................August
2005...........99.................August
2004...........91.................June
2003...........94.................July
2002...........98.................August
2001...........103...............August
2000...........93.................May
1999...........101...............July
1998...........93.................July
1997...........97.................July
1996...........96.................May
1995...........102...............July
1994...........98.................June
1993...........102...............July
1992...........93.................May/July
1991...........102...............July
1990...........95.................July
1989...........96.................July
1988...........99.................July/Aug.
1987...........97.................May
1986...........98.................July
1985...........95.................August
1984...........96.................June
1983...........99.................September
1982...........98.................July
1981...........96.................July
1980...........102...............July
1979...........95.................July/Aug.
1978...........95.................July
1977...........104...............July
1976...........96.................April
1975...........98.................August
1974...........95.................July
1973...........98.................August
1972...........94.................July/Aug.
1971...........96.................July
1970...........94.................July/Aug/Sept.
1969...........97.................May
1968...........98.................July
1967...........96.................June
1966...........103...............July
1965...........95.................June
1964...........99.................June/July
1963...........98.................July
1962...........99.................May.
1961...........97.................July
1960...........91.................July/Aug.
1959...........97.................June
1958...........93.................July
..
Some other years...
1881...........101...............September
1895...........97.................September
1898...........100...............July
1901...........100...............July
1902...........90................July
1911...........100...............July
1914...........95.................September
1915...........94.................September
1918...........104...............August
1921...........96.................September
1925...........99.................June
1926...........100...............July

1929...........99.................September
1930...........102...............July
1931...........99.................September
1932...........96.................September
1933...........102...............July
1934...........101...............June
1936...........106...............July
1937...........102...............July
1944...........102...............August
1948...........103...............August
1949...........102...............July
1950...........95.................June
1952...........100...............June
1953...........102...............September
1954...........100...............July
1955...........100...............July/Aug.
1957...........101...............July

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