snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: With that Low placement a land slow movement you would think an earlier bomb would be inevitable, we've seen trending improvements so hopefully a few more ticks slower and we will be in business Water temps in that general vicinity are pretty warm too. Should see some rapid deepening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 9 minutes ago, snywx said: Water temps in that general vicinity are pretty warm too. Should see some rapid deepening Jma with a coupe? Lmao... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Jma with a coupe? Lmao... We hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Temp has shot up 10° in the last 90 mins.. Currently 42° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Euro puts dutchess County into warning snows very similar if not better than nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 If euro can keep us all snow like Nam depicts, everyone here is 6-8+ based on total precip and 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 9 hours ago, snywx said: Temp has shot up 10° in the last 90 mins.. Currently 42° I have to check my PWS but I see the temp shot up after midnight at KMGJ which makes yesterday a below normal day IMBY in appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2-4" is a good call right now for our area & when I say "our" area I mean Orange/Putnam/Dutchess/Ulster/Sullivan/N Sussex & W Passaic. Not buying the NAM anymore. The coast prob gets a coating at best. Regardless this event should put me over 20" for the season. Not bad considering all the talk about this being a terrible December lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 9 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: If euro can keep us all snow like Nam depicts, everyone here is 6-8+ based on total precip and 10:1 ratios GGEM/GFS vs Euro/NAM. Sadly my money is on the GGEM/GFS combo. Both 12z GFS/GGEM give 2-4" for our area. They look almost identical with the most snow falling in Sullivan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 From what I just saw in the NE side, the 12z Euro gave us the finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: From what I just saw in the NE side, the 12z Euro gave us the finger. Yea. I saw a snow map. basically 1 to max 4 inches if you get lucky. Hurts extreme far north east Dutchess County New York and pounds your typical spots in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, Animal said: Yea. I saw a snow map. basically 1 to max 4 inches if you get lucky. Hurts extreme far north east Dutchess County New York and pounds your typical spots in New England. I wasn't expecting much, it just sucks to have it 50 or so miles too far NE this time, typically its too far SE for us. Aw shucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 The problem with this system for the far north and west is the area of subsidence that develops when the precip transfers to the coastal low. Ukmet and Euro both show this issue on today's runs. Heaviest precip gets confined close to the coastal low before expanding off of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I wasn't expecting much, it just sucks to have it 50 or so miles too far NE this time, typically its too far SE for us. Aw shucks... This winter is going down a slippery slope. After the epic snow season last year locally, this is an Aw shucks moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 What a day out there today though, well above normal, quite the change from 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 18z NAM has 2m temps from 32-34° and the heaviest precip falling around noon time thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I'll take 3" without a doubt, keep saying it... 1 three inch storm is more than my entire season total last year... too many spoiled snow lovers around imo... brushing off snow unless it's more than 8" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'll take 3" without a doubt, keep saying it... 1 three inch storm is more than my entire season total last year... too many spoiled snow lovers around imo... brushing off snow unless it's more than 8" lol After Thursday many of us here will either be very close to or over 20". Not a bad start in my book. Hi-res NAM is alittle more generous for thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 9 minutes ago, snywx said: After Thursday many of us here will either be very close to or over 20". Not a bad start in my book. Hi-res NAM is alittle more generous for thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I hate manure Miller Bs. Should be fun to watch from the sidelines though... the 12z NAM had like 1 m/s of upward motion over eastern New England. It got toned down a little for 18z, but even half of that would be some incredible dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I hate manure Miller Bs. I hear ya.. They usually suck for these parts. Atleast we are gonna see some snow from it. S NH up through interior ME could see 1-2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 That was an ugly Nam run boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: That was an ugly Nam run boys 850s are below 0 and 2m temps are 33-35°. Thats snow up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, snywx said: 850s are below 0 and 2m temps are 33-35°. Thats snow up here. I hope so, we were trending in the right diredction, I'm not enthused by today's runs...if we stay all snow it's 4-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I hope so, we were trending in the right diredction, I'm not enthused by today's runs...if we stay all snow it's 4-5" There was always that potential to be a sig event up here but it looks like its just gonna remain a advisory event for those along and N of 84. 2-4", 3-5" type event. Unless you live on the east end of LI or up near BOS don't expect much from Miller Bs. They almost always get going too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 0z NAM.. Here is hr42 & hr45, It just gets going 6 hrs too late for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 0z RGEM has a 993lp cut LI in half @ hr44 lol.. Mostly a rain event from the Hudson River Eastward if its correct. Man NH is the place to be for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 15 minutes ago, snywx said: 0z RGEM has a 993lp cut LI in half @ hr44 lol.. Mostly a rain event from the Hudson River Eastward if its correct. Man NH is the place to be for this event. Same deal as Nam tho, 850s stay below 0, and temps low 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Same deal as Nam tho, 850s stay below 0, and temps low 30s MSV looks to be sitting pretty for this one. 5-7" up that way look possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, snywx said: MSV looks to be sitting pretty for this one. 5-7" up that way look possible With those temp profiles I think that 4-6" swath extends a bit further east to the Newburgh area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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