IrishRob17 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I refuse to count crusty, week-old snow toward a white Christmas, even if it is 1" deep. Feh! Disgustin', ain't it?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 3 hours ago, Juliancolton said: I refuse to count crusty, week-old snow toward a white Christmas, even if it is 1" deep. Feh! I know what you mean but I guess it still counts as one. I pretty much still have 100% coverage of 1-2" throughout. Happy xmas everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Hope all who celebrate had a great Christmas today. Hard to believe the holiday season is already coming to an end - really flew by, this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Looks like there is a potential for a 1-3" event on Thursday. Primarily for the I-84 area northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, snywx said: Looks like there is a potential for a 1-3" event on Thursday. Primarily for the I-84 area northward Uptons thinking, .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A seasonably cool day is forecast on Wednesday with high pressure at the surface and ridging building aloft. Models are still diverging on timing/strength of phasing Northern stream and PAC energy from the Northern Plains through the Ohio valley to the Eastern US for the late week...and its degree of interaction with the sub-tropical jet. The sensitivity to this forecast appears to originate with activity over the western Pacific early this week and strength/timing of a resultant eastward moving wave packet for the mid-late week. A deeper trough would tap into subtropical jet energy/moisture with a wetter and deeper coastal low affecting the region on Thursday. A more progressive and shallower PAC/northern stream trough would have less interaction with subtropical energy/moisture...with a drier frontal passage. This range between these scenarios continues to be viable. Have noted the GFS has trended towards a more amplified upper trough. Generally stayed close to the previous forecast with POPs increased to likely Thursday. This is a middle road solution and more of a consensus of the deterministic and ensemble models showing a frontal system with early stages of wave development bringing a light to moderate precip event on Thursday. With the above uncertainties...hard to get too detailed with p-type...but pattern looks conducive to a wintry mix changing to rain for the coast with wintry mix across portions of the interior for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Happy holidays to all!Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 On 12/24/2016 at 4:54 PM, JerseyWx said: Definitely not going to be a White Christmas down here. Whole property is pure grass except some very small piles. Believe it or not some yards did still have some decent snow on them in our town . My parents being one of them . Also a few houses on Hamburg turnpike did (by excelsior lumber yard area ) those houses on the opposite side of the lumber yard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 hour ago, snywx said: Looks like there is a potential for a 1-3" event on Thursday. Primarily for the I-84 area northward If we can get a faster transfer we are talking about a foot + of snow. Problem is time is not on our side as we are about 3 days away from the event. Euro has 2-4" for all of us with more towards the KPOU area. Sneaky event. Happy Holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Euro still giving a shot at 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 hour ago, rgwp96 said: Believe it or not some yards did still have some decent snow on them in our town . My parents being one of them . Also a few houses on Hamburg turnpike did (by excelsior lumber yard area ) those houses on the opposite side of the lumber yard lol Yeah, I noticed some areas across town had a fair amount of snow cover. My side gets a lot of sun in certain parts and that eats it up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Getting a little slick out there.. Stuck at 29° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Odds are increasing that we finish below normal for Dec up here in the "mountains". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Sounds like 84 and 17 are pretty dicey? I know down here there were issues at a fire around 1 pm, roads all iced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 30 minutes ago, snywx said: Odds are increasing that we finish below normal for Dec up here in the "mountains". You guys have a chance. The metro might take a big hit on Tuesday though with some 50s possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah, I noticed some areas across town had a fair amount of snow cover. My side gets a lot of sun in certain parts and that eats it up a bit. My yard only had plies , it sucks for holding snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 32 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Sounds like 84 and 17 are pretty dicey? I know down here there were issues at a fire around 1 pm, roads all iced up. I busted my a$$ twice walking the dog.. Its very slick out there. 29° right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Nam improves once again for our area, 2-5 on most guidance now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Still out in lala land for the NAM but 18z has shown some improvement for the interior. 18z NAM Hr 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam improves once again for our area, 2-5 on most guidance now Major snowstorm for ORH on the NAM.. 3-6 hrs earlier and thats over our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 You guys in the mountains look good for an advisory event Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Major snowstorm for ORH on the NAM.. 3-6 hrs earlier and thats over our heads. We've seen this trend in our favor, I'm on my 48 so I've only peeped at surface maps, anyone see signals this could bomb earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 ***Starts slow chant*** jma...jma ...jma .... lol if only this model wasn't a train wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: We've seen this trend in our favor, I'm on my 48 so I've only peeped at surface maps, anyone see signals this could bomb earlier Inside the benchmark and over the forks.. Perfect track for us on the NAM. If it can get going a few hours sooner we will be in business for a warning snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Inside the benchmark and over the forks.. Perfect track for us on the NAM. If it can get going a few hours sooner we will be in business for a warning snowfall. Agreed, 968mb for Maine lol... woulda been nice here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Quite the skating rink out there as I'm still just below freezing with drizzle. Nasty stuff out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Sheet of ice up here, all hard surfaces are a skating rink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 The trend continues.. @ hr66 0z NAM is slower and 3 mb stronger at the same time frame compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Nams a solid 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Yeah I saw lol.. It has a 989 lp just south of LI. Def improvement but im getting greedy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, snywx said: Yeah I saw lol.. It has a 989 lp just south of LI. Def improvement but im getting greedy now. With that Low placement a land slow movement you would think an earlier bomb would be inevitable, we've seen trending improvements so hopefully a few more ticks slower and we will be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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