UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 17, 2016 Share Posted December 17, 2016 General assumption is despite poor ratios we still received modeled amounts for the most part and is some cases exceeded, I'd say this storm over-performed quite nicely. if we can minimize rainfall tomorrow we should be able to hold onto some snowpack to atleast make it somewhat of a white Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 17 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: General assumption is despite poor ratios we still received modeled amounts for the most part and is some cases exceeded, I'd say this storm over-performed quite nicely. if we can minimize rainfall tomorrow we should be able to hold onto some snowpack to atleast make it somewhat of a white Christmas Yeah, it seems like liquid equivalent overperformed to compensate for the deficient ratios. What was the wettest model? The NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 49 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, it seems like liquid equivalent overperformed to compensate for the deficient ratios. What was the wettest model? The NAM? NAM was wet but very warm aloft. Had us changing over. GFS prob was best overall. Consistently showed 5"+ for the area with some CAD. RGEM was too far south with its snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 So what are the chances of a flash freeze tomorrow? It's super wet out there now, actually drizzling, and only supposed to get wetter tomorrow. The ground had gotten pretty darned cold before today and things are a bit slick out there now so I'm guessing that if it doesn't rain a lot tomorrow it will freeze up as soon as it gets dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 9 minutes ago, snywx said: NAM was wet but very warm aloft. Had us changing over. GFS prob was best overall. Consistently showed 5"+ for the area with some CAD. RGEM was too far south with its snow Honestly I think Euro did well, consistently showed 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 3 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: General assumption is despite poor ratios we still received modeled amounts for the most part and is some cases exceeded, I'd say this storm over-performed quite nicely. if we can minimize rainfall tomorrow we should be able to hold onto some snowpack to atleast make it somewhat of a white Christmas Yeah this is not all melting in about 14 hours barring a deluge, cold front comes through around noon tomorrow, still 33 here...CAD ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Very happy with today's storm. It is beautiful out there!Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Very happy with today's storm. It is beautiful out there!Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 What a huge contrast down South. Parts of Tennessee have a tornado watch followed immediately by a winter weather advisory Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 What a huge contrast down South. Parts of Tennessee have a tornado watch followed immediately by a winter weather advisory Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Well this is really ugly, hot snow eating fog and 47*. When does the cold air get here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 6 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Well this is really ugly, hot snow eating fog and 47*. When does the cold air get here? Late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Snowpack slaughter is underway imby. Kinda sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 I jumped from 35 to 42 in a short period of time . Dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: I jumped from 35 to 42 in a short period of time . Dammit. Still holding at 38 , been a very slow rise here , should spike really fast with te rain that's about to hit me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 26 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Still holding at 38 , been a very slow rise here , should spike really fast with te rain that's about to hit me 50° here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Damn, really hoping to salvage the pack despite the downpours. Concrete city tonight that is for sure.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Damn, really hoping to salvage the pack despite the downpours. Concrete city tonight that is for sure.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 DP of 46, disgusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Looks like the front is around Scranton now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 30 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Damn, really hoping to salvage the pack despite the downpours. Concrete city tonight that is for sure. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Seems like a lost cause imby, large swaths of bare ground opening up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 26 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Seems like a lost cause imby, large swaths of bare ground opening up. Yeah it's a goner. Would have gotten eaten away by the 40s and sun next week anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 GFS and GGgem drop 6-10+ depending on location by next week, small wave dec 23rd, larger storm on 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS and GGgem drop 6-10+ depending on location by next week, small wave dec 23rd, larger storm on 26th We'll see. I don't think we are done seeing snow up here for the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 snownpack surviving pretty well here, not even grass showing, I'd say I still have about 3" OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: We'll see. I don't think we are done seeing snow up here for the rest of the month. The trend so far this season has been for strong cutters to turn weaker and colder, offering snow chances where the long-range maps promised torches. When you look at the GFS and see half a dozen disturbances over the next two weeks, you kinda have to expect some more snow (even if short-lived, like this weekend) before the month is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The trend so far this season has been for strong cutters to turn weaker and colder, offering snow chances where the long-range maps promised torches. When you look at the GFS and see half a dozen disturbances over the next two weeks, you kinda have to expect some more snow (even if short-lived, like this weekend) before the month is out. Absolutely, at the end the trend has been our friend. I get the frustration of those on the coast but we have better chances up here, which is climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: 50° here now Once the rain started it jumped really fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 Front is through.. wind is ripping, fog gone high was 46 down to 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 18, 2016 Share Posted December 18, 2016 41 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Looks like the front is around Scranton now Taking its time to get here...a little concerning still seeing West Shokan/Mount Tremper at 1000 feet in the central Catskills still in the lower 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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