White Gorilla Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Those wind chills are going to be painful!Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 man would be nice if Nam verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: man would be nice if Nam verified eye candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just now, nesussxwx said: 6-8 maybe 9 with good ratios.... I'm all in... dry slot after then cold returns... I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 With vrga, cut totals in half for a more realistic outcome Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: With vrga, cut totals in half for a more realistic outcome Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Virga shouldn't be an issue, we discussed this in depth earlier today In the storm threat forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 13 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I haven't checked soundings yet today on new guidance, but when I looked yesterday this once again looked like an event with little to no virga, similar to this past Sunday. The only reason that event even had any virga was the precip was insanely light and sparse, otherwise it would have reached the ground even earlier. This coming event on yesterday's models had no huge dry nose evident in the 650-900mb later at all, only dry at the surface. That can be overcome quickly if you are saturated down to 6-8,000 feet before any precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Noted Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Any chance of secondary development? What is the NAO? I know it is the negative EPO that is solely getting us these snow shots right now.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Any chance of secondary development? What is the NAO? I know it is the negative EPO that is solely getting us these snow shots right now. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk It looks to development past NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 37 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: It looks to development past NE If the NAM is right, we do get a secondary circulation developing nearby. Of course, it only serves to draw in the low-level warmth even quicker, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: If the NAM is right, we do get a secondary circulation developing nearby. Of course, it only serves to draw in the low-level warmth even quicker, lol You can see here.. Looks weak and passes directly over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just looking at the 00z suite so far, I still lean toward a lower starting guess - something like 2-4" or 3-5" area-wide. GFS soundings look good for heavy precip, but it's a brief affair before the changeover overtakes us. That would be like 6-7 hours of snow. Even though WAA is modeled to be so anomalously strong, I still like to see a resisting high to promote fronto banding. Otherwise, soundings still suggest prolific riming, which could keep ratios close to climo or even lower in the worst case. It should be a pretty good thump, but anything more than 5" or 6" strikes me as unlikely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Looks like Julian and I get mostly skunked again. A couple inches on the front end then wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1"-3" NYC/LI metro. 3"-6" north and west. Simple forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Heavy snow squall currently with nothing on the radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 24 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Heavy snow squall currently with nothing on the radar! Same here. Picked a quick dusting. 20/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 What a morning out there! Visibility below 1/2 a mile in Goshen with a fresh coating on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Sick flizzard ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Yep quick little squall dropped a coating and now it's clearing and getting breezy. I guess that means the cold front has moved through and the cold is settling in. Well, at least it will (almost) look like winter not just feel like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Just had that squall go through... picked up a quick coating... temp is down to 18 now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Picked up a quick half inch. Man its brutal out there... Deep winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, snywx said: Picked up a quick half inch. Man its brutal out there... Deep winter! what's your temp now? mine's 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: what's your temp now? mine's 18 18° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 10 minutes ago, snywx said: Picked up a quick half inch. Man its brutal out there... Deep winter! Nice, enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Sign me up for the hi res Nam plz north of rockland stays all frozen for first wave, then dry slot and rain showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 15 minutes ago, snywx said: Picked up a quick half inch. Man its brutal out there... Deep winter! Woah it actually looks like winter over there. I got a coating on dry ground and even though it's in the low 20's it's actually gone already except for a few little windrows in the shade. Well, enjoy your winter because all I'm gonna get is fkn cold stick season for a few days and then my luck we'll only get an inch before it turns to rain on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Sign me up for the hi res Nam plz north of rockland stays all frozen for first wave, then dry slot and rain showers I will gladly take the 4-5 inches that it shows on there for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Uptons thoughts as of 930am Sat morning. Most locations....with perhaps only Orange county...should be plain rain by early aftn. LLJ will also be increasing to 70-80 kt Sat morning...thus have added a period of moderate pcpn to the grids. This will aide in rapid accumulation of snow inland where 4-6 inches are expected before the changeover to rain. Elsewhere...expect 2-4 before the changeover...lowest amounts to the SE (see most likely snow accumulation forecast on our winter weather page for a visual of forecasted totals). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 hour ago, snywx said: Picked up a quick half inch. Man its brutal out there... Deep winter! Is everything on the ground from todays LES? It looks like more than a 1/2 inch to me. Had about 0.3 inches in a half hour squall here, it doesn't look anything like there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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