UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, snywx said: This stuff is easily 15:1.. I can sweep it off my driveway May overperform if temps are this cold at all levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Most mets online are actively talking about under modeled surface temps, they think Frz rain could be prolonged in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: May overperform if temps are this cold at all levels Rates should be impressive once that heavy stuff comes in later. Its a matter of how long we can hold off that mix line. Its gonna be one of those 3-5" thumps in 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, snywx said: Rates should be impressive once that heavy stuff comes in later. Its a matter of how long we can hold off that mix line. Its gonna be one of those 3-5" thumps in 3 hours I'm hoping we hold on till the AM, I'm on a 48hr shift, and with army beating navy, I've been on about 500 calls for nonsense cadets and need sleep tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Newest HRRR barely has any snow for Sussex. A bit confused as it is still 26/22 and wet bulb temps are still well below freezing. Guessing we see way more ice then expected? Does the HRRR count sleet as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Exactly .50" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Newest HRRR barely has any snow for Sussex. A bit confused as it is still 26/22 and wet bulb temps are still well below freezing. Guessing we see way more ice then expected? Does the HRRR count sleet as snow? This just isn't a snow setup. High offshore moving east, low to the west. Only means one thing...southerly flow. A strong southerly flow in these setups can torch all levels in no time. Without a high to the north there is no cad, and nothing to keep those cold temps in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm hoping we hold on till the AM, I'm on a 48hr shift, and with army beating navy, I've been on about 500 calls for nonsense cadets and need sleep tonight Im thinking from 1-5am is when it all happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 9 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Newest HRRR barely has any snow for Sussex. A bit confused as it is still 26/22 and wet bulb temps are still well below freezing. Guessing we see way more ice then expected? Does the HRRR count sleet as snow? You may be little too far south to see much. 2" might be the max down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Watching low hanging scud moving briskly South to North hours before the show starts does not make me hopeful for any appreciable snow before pl/zr come knocking on my windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Well with 1" your almost to the GFS totals 18z GFS looks to have increased snow totals for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 lgt snow has resumed, 26F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, nesussxwx said: Newest HRRR barely has any snow for Sussex. A bit confused as it is still 26/22 and wet bulb temps are still well below freezing. Guessing we see way more ice then expected? Does the HRRR count sleet as snow? The HRRR is still showing all rain for everyone south of Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: Exactly .50" on the ground. Probably our final too , pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 0z RGEM has the steady snow coming in around 1 am.. Changeover starts to occur around 5am or so. If precip is heavy enough we can rack up 3-4" in that period on top of what we already have. The 5am changeover is for orange county. Its alot sooner down in NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 16 minutes ago, snywx said: 0z RGEM has the steady snow coming in around 1 am.. Changeover starts to occur around 5am or so. If precip is heavy enough we can rack up 3-4" in that period on top of what we already have. The 5am changeover is for orange county. Its alot sooner down in NJ RGEM ended up caving to Nam GFS.. a bit disappointing cause I like RGEM, but Nam has continued to be very good... ALL model concensus looks the same now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 46 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Probably our final too , pathetic. Yeah, it's not looking good in terms of accumulations for us down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM ended up caving to Nam GFS.. a bit disappointing cause I like RGEM, but Nam has continued to be very good... ALL model concensus looks the same now We prob have a 3-4 hr window to get what we can. After that who knows. Maybe the changeover gets delayed. A few of us already have 1" otg too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, snywx said: We prob have a 3-4 hr window to get what we can. After that who knows. Maybe the changeover gets delayed. A few of us already have 1" otg too. The heaviest snows will be found just on the cold side of the transition line. If that gets hung up anywhere, there's still the potential for some nice totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The heaviest snows will be found just on the cold side of the transition line. If that gets hung up anywhere, there's still the potential for some nice totals. If there is a delay with the changeover some places might be able to squeeze an additional 1-2" but I think most of us are maxed out at 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 12 minutes ago, snywx said: If there is a delay with the changeover some places might be able to squeeze an additional 1-2" but I think most of us are maxed out at 5" Agreed, 3-4" is what I'm expecting imby. At least the game is better than the storm so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 54 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Agreed, 3-4" is what I'm expecting imby. At least the game is better than the storm so far! I think the show begins before 1 am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 11 minutes ago, snywx said: I think the show begins before 1 am.. Yea for you def, rolling on hard in a nice band aimed for the 84 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Can't make this stuff up, 00z GFS gives me almost 6" now looks like old RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Those 3 maps still give a general 3-5" from 84 northward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, snywx said: Those 3 maps still give a general 3-5" from 84 northward My radar shows mix in all of OC currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 NeverMind, I think that may just be the precip depiction returns on the leading edge of precip having feedback issues, no way that's not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Not liking that precip hole over N-Central PA, hoping the overrunning will make more appear as it gets closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Snow has really picked up steadiest light snow of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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