HeinzGuy Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 32 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Upton thinks 4-6 up this way, I personally think we're gonna virga for quite some time, but delayed changeover in the circled area may make up for it currently 17F dew point 16F Many reason why uptons "most likely" totals would be greater than the "potential" totals... most likely is 4-6 north of 84, potential is only 4-5 6 would be the biggest snowstorm for much of Ulster/Dutchess since Feb 2014 Edit: Meant Feb 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 NWS going with 13:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Mt Holly NWS most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 NAM looked warmer for New England, but pretty much the same for the Hudson Valley as far as accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Would be good if the precip could get out of here by 12z, think the longer we wait after that the more the chance for rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 hour ago, rgwp96 said: I won't be home for those games . I will be at a my daughters hs cheering competition. It will be like having pins shoved in my nails . A very long day ahead for me Ouch! Best of luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 12z RGEM is all snow north or west of Newburgh, warm layer never pushes like GFS/Nam show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Models are very stubborn with this event, nobody's caving for or area either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Made it down to 11F this morning. Brisk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 GFS is still very close to RGEM, 13:1 ratios with what upton is forecasting is 3-6" for the 84 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Made it down to 11F this morning. Brisk! What was your forecasted low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 13° for a low here.. Btw.. I got home early this morning and was surprised to see a good 0.5" otg. Back roads were still snow covered as well. Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Ggem is all snow north of rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Well it pretty much looks like I should expect ~3" before the changeover. This one is pretty much going to do well north and west of where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 hours ago, HeinzGuy said: 6 would be the biggest snowstorm for much of Ulster/Dutchess since Feb 2014 Edit: Meant Feb 2015 @crankyweatherguy! His twitter feed is a must read... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Hopefully you guys are up late tonight cause you are gonna miss the show. Its gonna rip after midnight! 12z RGEM @ 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Mount Holly likes 2-3" for my area of northern Morris. Sounds reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 32 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wow that is much better for me down in Northern Westchester... looks like 2-4 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West MT. NY Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Had over an inch in snow shower yesterday afternoon. Was surprised how slippery everything was when got home last night. 11.3 on the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 16 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Wow that is much better for me down in Northern Westchester... looks like 2-4 inches! For Pleasantville.. I see 2" or so. I thought you were more central westchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: What was your forecasted low? I honestly don't remember, but I usually go about 5 degrees under Albany's forecasts on radiational cooling nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 18 minutes ago, snywx said: For Pleasantville.. I see 2" or so. I thought you were more central westchester? You crush on GGEM I don't think I've seen models this split and sticking to their guns, the consensus for each model hasn't changed in days, GFS camp or GGEM camp is gonna bust, let's hope it the Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 37 minutes ago, snywx said: For Pleasantville.. I see 2" or so. I thought you were more central westchester? I am technically in Northern Westchester... about 10 miles north on TZB But I will gladly take 2 or so inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 17 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: You crush on GGEM I don't think I've seen models this split and sticking to their guns, the consensus for each model hasn't changed in days, GFS camp or GGEM camp is gonna bust, let's hope it the Gfs Im liking 4-6" for MBY w/ the potential for a surprise 6-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, snywx said: Im liking 4-6" for MBY w/ the potential for a surprise 6-7". I'm hoping for the same...my latitude helps for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: I am technically in Northern Westchester... about 10 miles north on TZB Ah ok.. I usually associate N Westchester w/ places like Yorktown, Peekskill, North Salem etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'm hoping for the same...my latitude helps for once Sullivan Cty looks to jack with this. Widespread 6-8" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 hour ago, snywx said: Ah ok.. I usually associate N Westchester w/ places like Yorktown, Peekskill, North Salem etc.. Yea I gotcha I am about 15 min south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 hour ago, snywx said: Ah ok.. I usually associate N Westchester w/ places like Yorktown, Peekskill, North Salem etc.. There is a significant difference in the sensible weather in these three towns. Yorktown and Peekskill are sort of similar in the higher elevations but the river corridor is quite different. North Salem is very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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