IrishRob17 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, snywx said: Irish curse huh Story of my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 NWS synopsis as of 7pm thinks 12:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: NWS synopsis as of 7pm thinks 12:1 ratios 0z 3k NAM smacks the shawangunk ridge with 6"+ 4-5" just north of 84 in OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, snywx said: 0z 3k NAM smacks the shawangunk ridge with 6"+ 4-5" just north of 84 in OC Yea I was gonna post this, as we get closer, the trend continues to tick cooler... nams very flat and WAA comes in hard, CAD continues to trend colder ( shocker ) but hey what do we know, we only live here.. btw they broke the nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 At 12:1 ratios most of the area here is 6.25" snow based on LE.... even with the rain line jumping just north of 84.... not convinced that's gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 0z nam qpf total. Up in the air what falls as snow vs sleet/ice and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, Animal said: 0z nam qpf total. Up in the air what falls as snow vs sleet/ice and rain. If we pull off a surprise and stay on the high end of that mix line, we will see 6-8+ (12:1 ratios per NWS), overperformers are not uncommon here, our climo is tough to model especially the CAD and WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: If we pull off a surprise and stay on the high end of that mix line, we will see 6-8+, overperformers are not uncommon, or climo is tough to model especially the CAD and WAA My area will flip over to a mix bag. It will warm up at some point. Need a quick thump and bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 RGEM is what I wanna see.. if it ticks any colder it's a 6"+ event for many here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 35 minutes ago, snywx said: RGEM is what I wanna see.. if it ticks any colder it's a 6"+ event for many here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: looks to be around 3-5 in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, Animal said: looks to be around 3-5 in my hood. Solid event on the RGEM. got colder for our area as well comparing the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 14 minutes ago, Animal said: looks to be around 3-5 in my hood. Don't forget uptons going with 12:1 and good growth, plus you have elevation... you often overperform as we see many times on here ... wouldnt be shocked if you pull off 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 12:1 is generally consistent with what I've seen from SWFEs since I started doing regular core samples over the past few years, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some even better ratios with the initial thump. Conditions look solid for dendritic snow growth, so could be pretty fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: 12:1 is generally consistent with what I've seen from SWFEs since I started doing regular core samples over the past few years, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some even better ratios with the initial thump. Conditions look solid for dendritic snow growth, so could be pretty fluffy. I'm down to 18F here 23 was forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Cough cough*** .6-.7 LE all snow ggem, that's 6-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Cough cough*** If I'm following the previous conversation properly they are expecting ratios greater that 10:1 correct? So those totals are low balled compared the NWS expectations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 I'm gonna head out on a limb and go on record as saying that somebody in our area could pick up 8" if things break the right way. After a period of high-ratio overrunning snows that could feature some nice banding given the tight pressure gradient, the developing triple-point low overhead should reinforce lift and enhance precip rates. I'd still temper expectations down to 4-6" but the potential is there for a positive bust IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, Tibet said: If I'm following the previous conversation properly they are expecting ratios greater that 10:1 correct? So those totals are low balled compared the NWS expectations? Upton thinks general 12:1... thermal gradient, dynamic cooling, banding etc... could be better than expected like Julian said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 13 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Cough cough*** .6-.7 LE all snow ggem, that's 6-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, Animal said: All in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 6 minutes ago, Animal said: Fluffhead!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, Animal said: That photo is like a 100K with the chips. lmao Is it a fake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 I've dropped 3F the last hour alone, down to 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Snow totals bumped up in the new wwa for 3 to 5 on my street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Meso models looking good still this AM, all I care about moving forward is the HRRR, RGEM, and radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 2 hours ago, Animal said: Snow totals bumped up in the new wwa for 3 to 5 on my street. I would be happy to get 3 , by the way I hope it snows during the giants game tonight . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, rgwp96 said: I would be happy to get 3 , by the way I hope it snows during the giants game tonight . Hopefully in Buffalo and Green Bay as well today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 39 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Hopefully in Buffalo and Green Bay as well today. I won't be home for those games . I will be at a my daughters hs cheering competition. It will be like having pins shoved in my nails . A very long day ahead for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Upton thinks 4-6 up this way, I personally think we're gonna virga for quite some time, but delayed changeover in the circled area may make up for it currently 17F dew point 16F Many reason why uptons "most likely" totals would be greater than the "potential" totals... most likely is 4-6 north of 84, potential is only 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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