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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley part II - second half 2016


xram

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3 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

My name was OrangeCountySnowZ, used to live in New Windsor, and highland falls before that.. progressively heading north, while storms trend south ahhh

Did you live in Highland Falls in Feb 2010?  I remember a poster from there being rather frustrated as they weren't getting the snow that the rest of us was at one point.  

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Mt Holly NWS is calling for a possible  1/2 inch to isolated 1-2 inches of snow today north of i 80 in any squalls that roll through the area today.

mentions possible to lose power due to ice. Calling for 1-4 inches of snow over to a nasty ice/sleet job.

 

Changes from previous forecast: latest model runs have trended
faster with the arrival of the warm front early Monday morning.
Additionally, both the GFS and ECMWF show a dry slot over Delmarva
and far southern NJ and far SE PA ahead of the arrival of the warm
front. If both of these trends continue, the I95 corridor and
locations south and east should see mostly (if not all) rain. For
locations northwest of the I95 corridor (especially along and
north of I78), this may unfortunately mean that they will have a
longer period in the transition zone, meaning a longer period of
freezing rain and sleet. As a result, the forecast snow amounts
have decreased slightly, while storm total ice forecast for I78
and further north have increased.

Hazards/impacts: At this point, while it looks like we might fall
short of warning criteria (either for ice storm or winter storm),
it will likely be a high end advisory event for I78 and north that
could result in treacherous travel conditions especially Sunday
night into at least the first half of the Monday morning commute.
Additionally, there may be enough ice accumulation to result in
some power outages in these locations.

 

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Models seem to be converging on a nice snow event for the interior AWT. Even the GFS only ever gets to a couple degrees above freezing in the mid-levels before precip shuts off, easily within the realm of subtle model corrections. An all- or mostly-frozen event with perhaps a little ending drizzle seems possible.

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Good morning! 14° for a low here..

NAM/GFS seem have to trended colder the last 2 runs while the RGEM came in looking nice :) Upton hasn't been buying the warmer models at all so that was nice to see. They even think there is the potential for 6" with some glaze on top. 4-6" for O.C is looking more and more likely

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