nesussxwx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 In Hardyston once again till Tuesday. Looking more likely most of the us see 2"+. Need to get the GFS on board and it's game set match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: My name was OrangeCountySnowZ, used to live in New Windsor, and highland falls before that.. progressively heading north, while storms trend south ahhh Did you live in Highland Falls in Feb 2010? I remember a poster from there being rather frustrated as they weren't getting the snow that the rest of us was at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: Did you live in Highland Falls in Feb 2010? I remember a poster from there being rather frustrated as they weren't getting the snow that the rest of us was at one point. Yea I moved there 88-2012 and yes it was probably me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Photo credit to Hudson valley weather... thoughts? this is the nam btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GGEM says another 5-8" next weekend after cosstal threat (currently OTS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Photo credit to Hudson valley weather... thoughts? this is the nam btw Surprised it changed the precip over to rain so fast with those rates and the high in that spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I'm surprised that Upton had me down for 4-6" before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Mt Holly NWS is calling for a possible 1/2 inch to isolated 1-2 inches of snow today north of i 80 in any squalls that roll through the area today. mentions possible to lose power due to ice. Calling for 1-4 inches of snow over to a nasty ice/sleet job. Changes from previous forecast: latest model runs have trended faster with the arrival of the warm front early Monday morning. Additionally, both the GFS and ECMWF show a dry slot over Delmarva and far southern NJ and far SE PA ahead of the arrival of the warm front. If both of these trends continue, the I95 corridor and locations south and east should see mostly (if not all) rain. For locations northwest of the I95 corridor (especially along and north of I78), this may unfortunately mean that they will have a longer period in the transition zone, meaning a longer period of freezing rain and sleet. As a result, the forecast snow amounts have decreased slightly, while storm total ice forecast for I78 and further north have increased. Hazards/impacts: At this point, while it looks like we might fall short of warning criteria (either for ice storm or winter storm), it will likely be a high end advisory event for I78 and north that could result in treacherous travel conditions especially Sunday night into at least the first half of the Monday morning commute. Additionally, there may be enough ice accumulation to result in some power outages in these locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Dropped down to a low of 15 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Nams snowy for our area edit: in the beginning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4k nam stays all snow north and west of Newburgh edit: slight period of rain, but it's in heavy returns and 850s look cold, dynamic cooling may keep the mix line south as depicted on Nam currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 We have threats to track, which is great.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Snywx you look to sit pretty on this event, let's hope CAD is undermodeled and we hold longer nam rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 RGEM looks nice for the majority. Always good to have the RGEM on your side. Next up, GFS. Nice day of tracking coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 9 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: RGEM looks nice for the majority. Always good to have the RGEM on your side. Next up, GFS. Nice day of tracking coming up. GFS looked flatter, but WAA was light so it didn't amount to much of a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Models seem to be converging on a nice snow event for the interior AWT. Even the GFS only ever gets to a couple degrees above freezing in the mid-levels before precip shuts off, easily within the realm of subtle model corrections. An all- or mostly-frozen event with perhaps a little ending drizzle seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Good morning! 14° for a low here.. NAM/GFS seem have to trended colder the last 2 runs while the RGEM came in looking nice Upton hasn't been buying the warmer models at all so that was nice to see. They even think there is the potential for 6" with some glaze on top. 4-6" for O.C is looking more and more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Upton latest thinking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GGEM for next weekend is insane... a 982mb that tracks directly over HV with a secondary offshore, drops 8-12" euro had same storm seems the nam and GFS eat together and the GGEM and euro do the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 12z GGEM for tomorrow into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 17 hours ago, nesussxwx said: In Hardyston once again till Tuesday. Looking more likely most of the us see 2"+. Need to get the GFS on board and it's game set match. Nice name change! I like 2-3" for Sussex cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, snywx said: Nice name change! I like 2-3" for Sussex cty. Same, with a bit more towards animal. 32F w/flurries currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 GGEM says we do this again on Saturday. Almost a carbon copy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Euro looks good for 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 This is looking like a solid 2-5... maybe a surprise 6".... I will certainly take that on Dec 11th lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 I like my specific area for 4-5". Should be interesting to watch unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 24 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro looks good for 3-5" How does western Orange County look on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 3 minutes ago, snywx said: How does western Orange County look on the euro Tress and hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Tress and hills Damn that's some crazy mesoscale features on that model Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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