UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 4k nam snowfall compared to total precip... most of the area is .3-.5..... models graphics are not seeing the cold 850s and translating it to snow.... 850s are between 0 and -7 for duration, with surface temps in low to mid 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 18z nam is ugly, dry for most Looks noticeably wetter to me... much of OC is now in the .5" contour. That's a nice storm west of the Thruway and south of 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 18z nam is ugly, dry for most You looking at the 18z. looks solid to me. Best run yet good snowfall in the higher terrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Just now, Juliancolton said: Looks noticeably wetter to me... much of OC is now in the .5" contour. That's a nice storm west of the Thruway and south of 84. I just posted on why I think the snowfall map (which got dryer) is bogus, kinda piggybacking of what you were explaining last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Animal said: You looking at the 18z. looks solid to me. Best run yet good snowfall in the higher terrain 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I just posted on why I think the snowfall map (which got dryer) is bogus, kinda piggybacking of what you were explaining last night I see now, agreed. It does look like surface temps got another degree or two warmer so we may contend with p-type issues, but I'll take my chances with more liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 16 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 18z nam is ugly, dry for most It's nowcasting time I would ignore it, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 It has gotten colder and raw throughout the day; weather that translates to snow, who knows. My elevation is 800, I'm curious if it will have any noticeable effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Elevation is the key. Areas close to 1000 ft or above will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 There's good enhancement to our west, I just fear that for some of us rain for a good duration, or atleast mix too long during the heaviest precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: There's good enhancement to our west, I just fear that for some of us rain for a good duration, or atleast mix too long during the heaviest precip In Hardyston Township currently at around 660'. Rain here so far, but the temp is dropping and down to 38/30. probably snowing at 1000'. Will update if we switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: I've said it before, but it's hard to look at this and believe that I'll only get like .1" of precip per most guidance. If you look at current WV loops, you can see cold cloud tops being steadily replenished over the primary low. Nothing seems particularly at odds with the models, and RAP mesoanalysis sure enough shows the s/w quickly dampening out, but who knows... maybe that precip shield has enough momentum to get me a couple inches before it dissipates. I always look at the radar and think that too. I'm usually disappointed in my line of thinking Sometimes I'll get lucky because I am only ~30 miles from the coast (LI Sound) so will see some coastal enhancement and get some backside snow that you don't. One thing I see in that radar shot is a very straight line marking the northern edge of the storm telling me that there's a dry air dome that has to be pushed out of the way and that doesn't usually happen quickly enough to leave us more than table scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 21 minutes ago, UnionWX said: In Hardyston Township currently at around 660'. Rain here so far, but the temp is dropping and down to 38/30. probably snowing at 1000'. Will update if we switch. Wife informed snow on the ridgeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Wet snow has begun here in the Poconos. Above 1,200 feet is where it switched over to mainly snow, as I was driving home from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I am getting sleet and wet snow flakes mixed with rain under those 40 - 45 DBZ echos over my area. 39 / 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 41/33 cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 some sleet mixing in hardyston twp. 75-25 rain to sleet ratio snow being reported north of easton, pa. think there is a good shot at a overperformer in NWNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Ok damn.. I was down in South central PA all day today and thankfully made it home before the all out blitz in the poconos. Lowest temp I saw was about 34 with ip/sn falling around 2000' on I-380. I think some over perform tonight especially animal. Those in NE PA and extreme western orange county have a chance as well. 38.8/32 overcast at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 37/32 now at home, 800 feet, with decent returns per Nexrad. At the office with elevation of 300, all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 If thermal profile isn't the determining issue, I like the higher spots in Eastern OC based upon radar downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 GFS has been trending colder with the cutter systems, decent amount of snow over the next 7 days, some see 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 If you are west of the hudson and atleast above 500' the potential is there for a nice over performer. I would ignore the snow maps right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 heavy sleet here in hardyston twp mixed precip making its way all the way down to the bronx per twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 57 minutes ago, NepaJames8602 said: Wet snow has begun here in the Poconos. Above 1,200 feet is where it switched over to mainly snow, as I was driving home from work. Where are you at James? I have a place in lake naomi about 1,900ft, what's it looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Where are you at James? I have a place in lake naomi about 1,900ft, what's it looking like? Delaware Township, Pike County. Snowing at a good clip now, nice coating so far. Temps are now near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 37° w/ lgt rain/sleet falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 24 minutes ago, NepaJames8602 said: Delaware Township, Pike County. Snowing at a good clip now, nice coating so far. Temps are now near freezing. Same here at about 1200 feet elevation in northern Lackawamna county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 26 minutes ago, snywx said: 37° w/ lgt rain/sleet falling Nothing here at West Point Yet, if your starting with a mix, that's a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 22z HRRR.. Gonna be interesting to see how things unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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