UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 minute ago, snywx said: Still looks ok for western areas What site do you use... tidbits and Wxbell only out like 12hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: What site do you use... tidbits and Wxbell only out like 12hrs http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 RGEM has a couple nice bursts of mod snow in our area Actually expanded the 2" line west by about 20 miles general 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 0z NAM @ hr27 you can see precip just hitting a brick wall as it moves NE. With the exception of some flurries/sprinkles I think most of New England stays dry especially as one moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM has a couple nice bursts of mod snow in our area Actually expanded the 2" line west by about 20 miles general 1-3" Actually its snowier than 18z for the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, snywx said: 0z NAM @ hr27 you can see precip just hitting a brick wall as it moves NE. With the exception of some flurries/sprinkles I think most of New England stays dry especially as one moves east Slightly surprising considering dew points aren't that low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 These models continue showing rain in HV at onset yet 850 ZERO line extends down to jersey... so far GFS looks in line with RGEM sullivan does well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 0 z gfs looks like a turd for total qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 20 minutes ago, Animal said: 0 z gfs looks like a turd for total qpf. Snow growth looks pretty uninspiring, so we'll need QPF on our side. The difference between a total fail and a respectable event is a few tenths of an inch of liquid, which is still well within the realm of model error at this point. It's funny how if you just woke up from a coma and looked at southeast radar, you'd think big ol' nor'easter riding the coast tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 GGEM still looks good for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 GGEM does look good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Someone wanna tackle as to why the models are showing rain continuously with these kind of 850 temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Someone wanna tackle as to why the models are showing rain continuously with these kind of 850 temps? The models themselves actually don't differentiate p-types; the graphics sites take the model output and run it through their own algorithms, and it's usually based just on surface temps. That's part of why snowfall maps are so unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: The models themselves actually don't differentiate p-types; the graphics sites take the model output and run it through their own algorithms, and it's usually based just on surface temps. That's part of why snowfall maps are so unreliable. Well here's what falls over the next 7 days precip wise on the GFS, whether it all falls as snow or not is yet to be seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Someone wanna tackle as to why the models are showing rain continuously with these kind of 850 temps? Was also wondering why it rains with 0 to -5 850 temps before and after the precip...shoulda had some snow outta that I thought Edit: I just read what Julian wrote and now I get it, it's in the graphics, not the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 The cold may come, but I'm not excited about the pattern setting up, overrunning cutters galore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Areas 45+ miles NW of the city above 500' should expect 2-4" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 24 minutes ago, snywx said: Areas 45+ miles NW of the city above 500' should expect 2-4" tonight. I would say 1-3 areas without good elevation, 850s look fine to me, new Nam is still pretty wet, im gonna ignore snowmaps as it shows ran for anyone in and around the Hudson river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 HRRR really pounds EPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 The RGEM is quite a bit wetter for areas west of the Hudson. Seems like there's a little convergence zone that would enhance precip rates for a while early tomorrow morning. That would be nice... we could really use some sort of forcing mechanism to compensate for the fizzling shortwave. Looking forward for a moment, the upper level flow just gets faster and flatter with each model run for the end of the week. Tonight is probably our last shot at accumulating snow until that SWFE/cutter potential in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 12z nam looks great for my area of nj with 4-6 inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 36 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: 12z nam looks great for my area of nj with 4-6 inches lol. Lol, definitely an outlier. RGEM doesn't give us a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Always go with the one that shows the most for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 50 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Lol, definitely an outlier. RGEM doesn't give us a thing. It's the only one that gives anything I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 HRRR is ugly, shows precip rolling in around 1900, you can see it struggle with the dry air, by the time precip ends around 4am, it's been mostly broken snow squalls past EPA and western NY areas, extreme western Orange and Sullivan with elevation does ok, but nothing to crazy Raps a bit wetter and more organized, the lack of accumulation on these snow maps around Eastern Orange and northern rockland are in part due to the graphics spitting out a nearly ALL rain event. I don't buy that, 850s are well below 0 I don't think anyone north of rockland county, especially with elevation, rains much if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 I've said it before, but it's hard to look at this and believe that I'll only get like .1" of precip per most guidance. If you look at current WV loops, you can see cold cloud tops being steadily replenished over the primary low. Nothing seems particularly at odds with the models, and RAP mesoanalysis sure enough shows the s/w quickly dampening out, but who knows... maybe that precip shield has enough momentum to get me a couple inches before it dissipates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Gotta love the NWS.... Albany says nothing about snow for my area... yet down here at work (West Point) aka southeast Orange County... a WWA for 1-4" is in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 GFS has potential single digit or below freezing temps dec 15 time frame... then a torch around xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 18z nam is ugly, dry for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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