gravitylover Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Snow is over and it's really foggy. Pretty fluffy stuff is packing down in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Looks like we are gonna be hearing the phrase "NW of 287" alot this yr. Smells like an old school winter in the making. YTD 5.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 12z Nam starts warm, 850s above 0, and 2mt temps mid upper 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 19 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 12z Nam starts warm, 850s above 0, and 2mt temps mid upper 30s Still drops 2-4" for the area.. Looks like the Catskills get a nice thump this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 SnowMerica.... making winter great again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 12z Nam starts warm, 850s above 0, and 2mt temps mid upper 30s 12z NAM.. Looks plenty cold for a snow event up here. Precip banding looks funky prob just model noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1.7" new snow, melting pretty quickly at 33/32. Seasonal total is now 7.8". The NAM looks sufficiently cold when precip is at its heaviest, though I guess it might have trouble sticking at the very beginning. The depicted banding makes sense to me... that's a pretty sharp trough in the mid-levels passing overhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 34 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: SnowMerica.... making winter great again I was thinking this morning how this snow is great for packing but I was thinking in terms of a snowball fight. Since I was the only one home at the time I took on a tree in a snowball fight...and still lost :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I was thinking this morning how this snow is great for packing but I was thinking in terms of a snowball fight. Since I was the only one home at the time I took on a tree in a snowball fight...and still lost :-( Rookie mistake. Trees are notoriously fearsome snowball adversaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 1st guess would be 2-4" area wide for the interior. I can see a few spots picking up 5" under localized banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 26 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: 1.7" new snow, melting pretty quickly at 33/32. Seasonal total is now 7.8". The NAM looks sufficiently cold when precip is at its heaviest, though I guess it might have trouble sticking at the very beginning. The depicted banding makes sense to me... that's a pretty sharp trough in the mid-levels passing overhead: How far off are you from last yrs total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 GFS not too enthused, I'd take the nam over short term GFS anyway, nams been exceptional so far GFS is coating to an inch, if that, for most... unless your in higher elevation and Sullivan/NW Ulster and catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS not too enthused, I'd take the nam over short term GFS anyway, nams been exceptional so far GFS is coating to an inch, if that, for most... unless your in higher elevation and Sullivan/NW Ulster and catskills RGEM is usually my go to model inside 36hrs. I agree though NAM has been performing well early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 38 minutes ago, snywx said: How far off are you from last yrs total? I had 18.5" last year so still got a ways to go. Shouldn't be too hard to hit double digits with tomorrow night's deal, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 12z GGEM likes tomorrows event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Nam gives me close to 7" from late Tuesday through Thursday evening, 2 back to back events I could live with a nickel and dime kind of winter, after last years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 best guess for New Paltz area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Googlymoogly said: best guess for New Paltz area? I'd go with Nam RGEM blend, your only about 10 miles north of me... my guess for us: 2-5" for Tuesday/Wed 1-3" for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'd go with Nam RGEM blend, your only about 10 miles north of me... my guess for us: 2-5" for Tuesday/Wed 1-3" for Thursday OH BOY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Euro still not biting on anything more than an inch maybe 2 between now and Friday... Nam says 4-7 for both events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 27 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro still not biting on anything more than an inch maybe 2 between now and Friday... Nam says 4-7 for both events Mesos are biting though. They have been doing well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 9 minutes ago, snywx said: Mesos are biting though. They have been doing well Yea euro op runs meh... nothing worth batting an eye at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Just the fact that we are tracking events is a win in my book. Hopefully we are all in double digits by the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 I really think our bigger event is gonna be the shortwave associated with the passing boundary Thursday, watch for this to trend wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Weather Underground isn't thrilled about tomorrow and Wednesday, says I stay all rain. I'm interested in the HRRR as we get closer, especially with these small events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Nam dumps on parts of western Orange County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Haven't seen snowfall maps yet, but based on dynamic, 850s, 2mt look fine for duration, someone in LHV may jackpot and over perform didnt amount to much, second wave was far less amped... actually not that great a Nam run compared to recent. Hopefully a hiccup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Can't make this stuff up... 4K has been under doing precip this entire time, 18z Nam looked a bit flat with less precip... what's the 4K do? Nails the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Nice anti-bullseye over KPOU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 RGEM 18z sharp cutoff west to east, id blend this and the 12k Nam, 4K is most likely over done, general 1-3" for most west of Hudson, coating to 1" east, pockets of 3-4" depending on banding, more in Catskills and west of 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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