snywx Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 58/38 right now.. 18z Hi res NAM is coming in alittle more bullish for accumulating snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 8 minutes ago, snywx said: 58/38 right now.. 18z Hi res NAM is coming in alittle more bullish for accumulating snowfall. It's been interesting tracking the front and temp drops to the west today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: It's been interesting tracking the front and temp drops to the west today. Tons of reports of 20° drops right behind the front out in C PA. Curious to see how low we drop before the front arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: It's been interesting tracking the front and temp drops to the west today. Yeah, pretty beastly front. Hope to be outside to feel the wind shift but I fear it'll pass by just as GOES-R prepares for launch... being a weenie is rough sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 What an absolutely beautiful day it was today. I kinda wish it could stay like this for a few more weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: What an absolutely beautiful day it was today. I kinda wish it could stay like this for a few more weeks Convertible weather! Not bad for late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Yup driving around with the windows down and riding in shorts and a t shirt. I have a feeling it's the last one of these though No matter what happens it's gonna be tough to even equal night riding in short sleeves on solstice week like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 HRRR says someone in central orange could jackpot with 3-5" lol, short terms like HRRR and Rap pivot the band as it passes, something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: HRRR says someone in central orange could jackpot with 3-5" lol, short terms like HRRR and Rap pivot the band as it passes, something to keep an eye on 18z GFS came in snowier as well. I think some surprises might in store for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 48 minutes ago, gravitylover said: What an absolutely beautiful day it was today. I kinda wish it could stay like this for a few more weeks Wouldn't mind that lol. Feels good to hike in only a sweatshirt for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 1 minute ago, snywx said: 18z GFS came in snowier as well. I think some surprises might in store for some. If I had to guess, I'd say Monroe/Woodbury/Harriman snowbelt, I'll be at work at West Point tomorrow, working the forest station, our elevations pretty decent so I'm hoping for an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: If I had to guess, I'd say Monroe/Woodbury/Harriman snowbelt, I'll be at work at West Point tomorrow, working the forest station, our elevations pretty decent so I'm hoping for an inch That purple spot you see in orange county is actually Schnemunk Mtn ( 1600') Highest point in the county. My folks live on the east facing slope of the mountain in Highland Mills and they have their own little micro climate there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 18z GFS 1am tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 hrr looks decent for my area, around 2-3 inches. My call around a 1/2 inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Good luck to the northern folk, hope you all see some flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Thundersnow being reported near Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 16 minutes ago, snywx said: Thundersnow being reported near Harrisburg I figured someone would see it, still won't be shocked if it's not reported in Orange/Sullivan at some point also latest HRRR really jumped up totals for parts of Orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I figured someone would see it, still won't be shocked if it's not reported in Orange/Sullivan at some point also latest HRRR really jumped up totals for parts of Orange What the heck is this model seeing exactly. Dumps around 6 in my area. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 For anyone wondering how central Orange is higher and myself in ulster get almost nothing, the HRRR seems to be spitting out a warm tongue, as shown below, I do not see the changeover taking that long, nor do I see an isolated warm tongue pushing through the instability and cold air that follows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: For anyone wondering how central Orange is higher and myself in ulster get almost nothing, the HRRR seems to be spitting out a warm tongue, as shown below, I do not see the changeover taking that long, nor do I see an isolated warm tongue pushing through the instability and cold air that follows Bigger question is where is the QPF coming from exactly. I have read about possible lake affect steamers and some instability, but no reports of some of the high snow totals from this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 4 minutes ago, Animal said: Bigger question is where is the QPF coming from exactly. I have read about possible lake affect steamers and some instability, but no reports of some of the high snow totals from this model. The nam isn't too far from this solution as was the GFS, problem being is both those models keep us rain much longer than HRRR, also looking at current radar, I'd say this is under-estimated QPF wise, by the euro/GFS. I think this will over perform for those that can see the changeover quickly enough to catch the front wave, and then luck out on some decent back end squalls... would still take the HRRR as a grain of salt at this point in season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 That plume of moisture over PA is going to pivot over us and go negative tilt.... SE to NW as a secondary low is now forming over Central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 4 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: That plume of moisture over PA is going to pivot over us and go negative tilt.... SE to NW as a secondary low is now forming over Central NJ Well Upton and Mt Holly NWS are not eating the solutions. Mt Holly Short term forecast just issued, mentions maybe a tenth of qpf with the front lol. Will be interesting to watch what occurs though tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: That plume of moisture over PA is going to pivot over us and go negative tilt.... SE to NW as a secondary low is now forming over Central NJ Exactly.. The progression of the front is going to slow down all while we have an intensifying LP just to the E of us in SNE. Some surprises are in store for some of us tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 1 minute ago, Animal said: Well Upton and Mt Holly NWS are not eating the solutions. Mt Holly Short term forecast just issued, mentions maybe a tenth of qpf with the front lol. Will be interesting to watch what occurs though tomorrow night. Which is surprising considering how 12z & the 18z runs have been increasing totals for the interior. Then again im used to Upton ignoring us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 It's plain as day to see the increased QPF is going to happen. It's all about the thermal profile now IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Albany has ZERO mention of snow for me, where I live is awful for forecasting, I'm literally less than 15 miles from the southern edge of their forecast zone, so my area is the hated stepchild. They pay no attention, I'm probably better going off uptons forecast discussions at this point, seeing as how I'm only a couple min from the OC border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Just looking at the radar you can tell its gonna over perform. Now does that mean more white gold or just more overall precip. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 32 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Albany has ZERO mention of snow for me, where I live is awful for forecasting, I'm literally less than 15 miles from the southern edge of their forecast zone, so my area is the hated stepchild. They pay no attention, I'm probably better going off uptons forecast discussions at this point, seeing as how I'm only a couple min from the OC border Albany: Quote Latest HRRR, NAM, Euro and GFS all give even the valley floor 2-3 inches of snow by 10AM Sunday Morning as low pressure deepen in the Connecticut River Valley. We may have to update snowfall forecast later tonight as our trace to 0.5 inches in the local area may be on the light side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 49/40 here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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