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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley part II - second half 2016


xram

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  On 12/12/2016 at 12:55 AM, snywx said:

Rates should be impressive once that heavy stuff comes in later. Its a matter of how long we can hold off that mix line. Its gonna be one of those 3-5" thumps in 3 hours

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I'm hoping we hold on till the AM, I'm on a 48hr shift, and with army beating navy, I've been on about 500 calls for nonsense cadets and need sleep tonight 

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  On 12/12/2016 at 1:01 AM, nesussxwx said:

Newest HRRR barely has any snow for Sussex. A bit confused as it is still 26/22 and wet bulb temps are still well below freezing. 

Guessing we see way more ice then expected? Does the HRRR count sleet as snow?

 

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This just isn't a snow setup. High offshore moving east, low to the west. Only means one thing...southerly flow. 

A strong southerly flow in these setups can torch all levels in no time. Without a high to the north there is no cad, and nothing to keep those cold temps in place.

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  On 12/12/2016 at 1:01 AM, nesussxwx said:

Newest HRRR barely has any snow for Sussex. A bit confused as it is still 26/22 and wet bulb temps are still well below freezing. 

Guessing we see way more ice then expected? Does the HRRR count sleet as snow?

 

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You may be little too far south to see much. 2" might be the max down there

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  On 12/12/2016 at 1:01 AM, nesussxwx said:

Newest HRRR barely has any snow for Sussex. A bit confused as it is still 26/22 and wet bulb temps are still well below freezing. 

Guessing we see way more ice then expected? Does the HRRR count sleet as snow?

 

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The HRRR is still showing all rain for everyone south of Orange County

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  On 12/12/2016 at 3:15 AM, snywx said:

0z RGEM has the steady snow coming in around 1 am.. Changeover starts to occur around 5am or so. If precip is heavy enough we can rack up 3-4" in that period on top of what we already have. The 5am changeover is for orange county. Its alot sooner down in NJ

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RGEM ended up caving to Nam GFS.. a bit disappointing cause I like RGEM, but Nam has continued to be very good... ALL model concensus looks the same now

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  On 12/12/2016 at 3:33 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

RGEM ended up caving to Nam GFS.. a bit disappointing cause I like RGEM, but Nam has continued to be very good... ALL model concensus looks the same now

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We prob have a 3-4 hr window to get what we can. After that who knows. Maybe the changeover gets delayed. A few of us already have 1" otg too.

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  On 12/12/2016 at 3:46 AM, snywx said:

We prob have a 3-4 hr window to get what we can. After that who knows. Maybe the changeover gets delayed. A few of us already have 1" otg too.

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The heaviest snows will be found just on the cold side of the transition line. If that gets hung up anywhere, there's still the potential for some nice totals. 

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  On 12/12/2016 at 3:51 AM, Juliancolton said:

The heaviest snows will be found just on the cold side of the transition line. If that gets hung up anywhere, there's still the potential for some nice totals. 

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If there is a delay with the changeover some places might be able to squeeze an additional 1-2" but I think most of us are maxed out at 5" 

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