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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley part II - second half 2016


xram

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  On 12/5/2016 at 10:27 PM, snywx said:

qpf did increase though... 

RGEM is 2-4"

NAM is umm snowy :)

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Yea these op runs are having trouble...I think your set to do the best, I may be a bit Far East for this one as precip deteriorated quickly even on the nam, most of my precip comes Thursday, whereas the GFS doesnt even have the 2nd wave associated with the cold front 

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  On 12/5/2016 at 10:33 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Yea these op runs are having trouble...I think your set to do the best, I may be a bit Far East for this one as precip deteriorated quickly even on the nam, most of my precip comes Thursday, whereas the GFS doesnt even have the 2nd wave associated with the cold front 

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Its all gonna come down to how far east that initial WAA can get. It does hit a wall though. NE PA looks to do the best of all. SNE will be lucky to get 1-2" from this

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  On 12/5/2016 at 11:27 PM, JerseyWx said:

Hopefully we get some nice snows down here too.  Tomorrow looks very borderline for me, I think I might rain most of the night.

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Someone either in NE PA, HV or NWNJ is gonna cash in tomorrow night. I would not be surprised to see 5-6" locally as jackpot areas. I do think it falls apart right when it hits the NY/CT border

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  On 12/6/2016 at 12:25 AM, rgwp96 said:

Yea we are def right  on the cut off ,  to close for comfort 

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I agree, I'm going with mostly rain for us.

  On 12/6/2016 at 12:49 AM, Irishmick9 said:

Will tomorrow night be elevation dependent? I have gotten 2.5 here in Vernon Valley while top of hill in Highland Lakes have about 8 so far

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Yeah, I'd say elevation will help out a lot, especially for us here in Jersey.  The guys up in the Hudson Valley might get away with slightly less elevation as they have a little more latitude.

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  On 12/5/2016 at 11:28 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Check out my write up on wave 2 for Thursday in the storm thread, gimme some feedback plz

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Nice analysis, I certainly hope that you're right. The one thing I'd point out is that you can't always judge where vertical lift will be just by looking at vorticity maps. Vortmaxes by themselves don't cause divergence... what you look for are areas of advecting vorticity which generally indicate upper-level divergence and vertical ascent. More on this here: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/65/. When you compare the NAM and GFS z500 charts, the GFS has weaker vorticity advection over our region. The differences are a little bit subtle, but they become more clear when you go back to hours 48-54 (see attached frames). The NAM has two much sharper shortwaves phasing with each other, resulting in a more amplified trough initially. The energy on the GFS is quite a bit broader and less focused.

The height field becomes pretty similar by hour 78, like you showed, but the strength of the DPVA will help decide our fate. I believe the GFS and NAM do present distinct solutions instead of just mishandling QPF, and given conventional wisdom, I think I'd side with the GFS if I absolutely had to choose right now. Should be interesting to watch!

Edit: I neglected to check surface progs, but you can see the differences even more distinctly there. At hour 48, the NAM has a sprawling precip shield and falling sfc pressures over the southern Plains, while the GFS has higher pressures and almost no precip. I think the NAM is overdoing the potency of that southern shortwave.

TDQUSy0.png

 

wZnXbKt.png

 

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  On 12/6/2016 at 1:09 AM, Juliancolton said:

Nice analysis, I certainly hope that you're right. The one thing I'd point out is that you can't always judge where vertical lift will be just by looking at vorticity maps. Vortmaxes by themselves don't cause divergence... what you look for are areas of advecting vorticity which generally indicate upper-level divergence and vertical ascent. More on this here: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/65/. When you compare the NAM and GFS z500 charts, the GFS has weaker vorticity advection over our region. The differences are a little bit subtle, but they become more clear when you go back to hours 48-54 (see attached frames). The NAM has two much sharper shortwaves phasing with each other, resulting in a more amplified trough initially. The energy on the GFS is quite a bit broader and less focused.

The height field becomes pretty similar by hour 78, like you showed, but the strength of the DPVA will help decide our fate. I believe the GFS and NAM do present distinct solutions instead of just mishandling QPF, and given conventional wisdom, I think I'd side with the GFS if I absolutely had to choose right now. Should be interesting to watch!

Edit: I neglected to check QPF, but you can see the differences even more distinctly there. At hour 48, the NAM has a sprawling precip shield and falling sfc pressures over the southern Plains, while the GFS has higher pressures and almost no precip. I think the NAM is overdoing the potency of that southern shortwave.

TDQUSy0.png

 

wZnXbKt.png

 

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Awesome! Appreciate the in depth insight 

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  On 12/6/2016 at 2:26 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

4k is wayyyyyy stronger 997 that looks to wanna come up coast a bit before pushing out...

proof it will be a nowcast event 

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I agree completely.. It also looks alittle slower getting precip into the area. Im still thinking 2-4" for the area. NE PA is prob in line for a good event. 

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