UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 GFS remains 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 12:16 PM, IrishRob17 said: 1.9" on the board. Expand Melted down to .19" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 9:45 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: GFS remains 1-2" Expand qpf did increase though... RGEM is 2-4" NAM is umm snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 10:27 PM, snywx said: qpf did increase though... RGEM is 2-4" NAM is umm snowy Expand Yea these op runs are having trouble...I think your set to do the best, I may be a bit Far East for this one as precip deteriorated quickly even on the nam, most of my precip comes Thursday, whereas the GFS doesnt even have the 2nd wave associated with the cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Upton leaning toward 2-4" for areas around 84 northward. Ive noticed they have been conservative early on this season. Just last night they were calling for primarily a rain event now they see the light lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 10:33 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea these op runs are having trouble...I think your set to do the best, I may be a bit Far East for this one as precip deteriorated quickly even on the nam, most of my precip comes Thursday, whereas the GFS doesnt even have the 2nd wave associated with the cold front Expand Its all gonna come down to how far east that initial WAA can get. It does hit a wall though. NE PA looks to do the best of all. SNE will be lucky to get 1-2" from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 10:27 PM, snywx said: qpf did increase though... RGEM is 2-4" NAM is umm snowy Expand GFS really hammers u over next week or so too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 I like how this thread is active this early in the season. Hopefully we can get that old school winter in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 11:24 PM, snywx said: I like how this thread is active this early in the season. Hopefully mother mature realized where its suppose to actually snow lol Expand Hopefully we get some nice snows down here too. Tomorrow looks very borderline for me, I think I might rain most of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 Check out my write up on wave 2 for Thursday in the storm thread, gimme some feedback plz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 11:27 PM, JerseyWx said: Hopefully we get some nice snows down here too. Tomorrow looks very borderline for me, I think I might rain most of the night. Expand Someone either in NE PA, HV or NWNJ is gonna cash in tomorrow night. I would not be surprised to see 5-6" locally as jackpot areas. I do think it falls apart right when it hits the NY/CT border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 5, 2016 Share Posted December 5, 2016 I think NW New Jersey will do pretty well like you said. 287 is usually the rain/snow line around here, so it'll be interesting to see how this one plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 11:27 PM, JerseyWx said: Hopefully we get some nice snows down here too. Tomorrow looks very borderline for me, I think I might rain most of the night. Expand Yea we are def right on the cut off , to close for comfort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Will tomorrow night be elevation dependent? I have gotten 2.5 here in Vernon Valley while top of hill in Highland Lakes have about 8 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 12:25 AM, rgwp96 said: Yea we are def right on the cut off , to close for comfort Expand I agree, I'm going with mostly rain for us. On 12/6/2016 at 12:49 AM, Irishmick9 said: Will tomorrow night be elevation dependent? I have gotten 2.5 here in Vernon Valley while top of hill in Highland Lakes have about 8 so far Expand Yeah, I'd say elevation will help out a lot, especially for us here in Jersey. The guys up in the Hudson Valley might get away with slightly less elevation as they have a little more latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/5/2016 at 11:28 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Check out my write up on wave 2 for Thursday in the storm thread, gimme some feedback plz Expand Nice analysis, I certainly hope that you're right. The one thing I'd point out is that you can't always judge where vertical lift will be just by looking at vorticity maps. Vortmaxes by themselves don't cause divergence... what you look for are areas of advecting vorticity which generally indicate upper-level divergence and vertical ascent. More on this here: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/65/. When you compare the NAM and GFS z500 charts, the GFS has weaker vorticity advection over our region. The differences are a little bit subtle, but they become more clear when you go back to hours 48-54 (see attached frames). The NAM has two much sharper shortwaves phasing with each other, resulting in a more amplified trough initially. The energy on the GFS is quite a bit broader and less focused. The height field becomes pretty similar by hour 78, like you showed, but the strength of the DPVA will help decide our fate. I believe the GFS and NAM do present distinct solutions instead of just mishandling QPF, and given conventional wisdom, I think I'd side with the GFS if I absolutely had to choose right now. Should be interesting to watch! Edit: I neglected to check surface progs, but you can see the differences even more distinctly there. At hour 48, the NAM has a sprawling precip shield and falling sfc pressures over the southern Plains, while the GFS has higher pressures and almost no precip. I think the NAM is overdoing the potency of that southern shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 1:09 AM, Juliancolton said: Nice analysis, I certainly hope that you're right. The one thing I'd point out is that you can't always judge where vertical lift will be just by looking at vorticity maps. Vortmaxes by themselves don't cause divergence... what you look for are areas of advecting vorticity which generally indicate upper-level divergence and vertical ascent. More on this here: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/65/. When you compare the NAM and GFS z500 charts, the GFS has weaker vorticity advection over our region. The differences are a little bit subtle, but they become more clear when you go back to hours 48-54 (see attached frames). The NAM has two much sharper shortwaves phasing with each other, resulting in a more amplified trough initially. The energy on the GFS is quite a bit broader and less focused. The height field becomes pretty similar by hour 78, like you showed, but the strength of the DPVA will help decide our fate. I believe the GFS and NAM do present distinct solutions instead of just mishandling QPF, and given conventional wisdom, I think I'd side with the GFS if I absolutely had to choose right now. Should be interesting to watch! Edit: I neglected to check QPF, but you can see the differences even more distinctly there. At hour 48, the NAM has a sprawling precip shield and falling sfc pressures over the southern Plains, while the GFS has higher pressures and almost no precip. I think the NAM is overdoing the potency of that southern shortwave. Expand Awesome! Appreciate the in depth insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 1:23 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Awesome! Appreciate the in depth insight Expand Definitely gonna be watching closely and hoping for improvements on the globals. The only thing I like more than snow is the promise of more snow shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 0z NAM cut back big time.. Nothing like 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:22 AM, snywx said: 0z NAM cut back big time.. Nothing like 18z Expand 4k is wayyyyyy stronger 997 that looks to wanna come up coast a bit before pushing out... proof it will be a nowcast event edit: still kills precip off FAST, doesn't amount to much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:26 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 4k is wayyyyyy stronger 997 that looks to wanna come up coast a bit before pushing out... proof it will be a nowcast event Expand I agree completely.. It also looks alittle slower getting precip into the area. Im still thinking 2-4" for the area. NE PA is prob in line for a good event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:28 AM, snywx said: I agree completely.. It also looks alittle slower getting precip into the area. Im still thinking 2-4" for the area. NE PA is prob in line for a good event. Expand I Still think Thursday brings us more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 NAM cut qpf in half.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:36 AM, snywx said: NAM cut qpf in half.. Expand 4k is still 2-3" western Orange County does well, 3-4" maybe 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Man not a good start to 00z suites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:39 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 4k is still 2-3" western Orange County does well, 3-4" maybe 5 Expand Yeah I was just speaking in general for the HV. Here on the western side of OC we still make out with 3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 Wow, that kind of sucks. We always knew precip would have a hard time pushing north and east, but I thought I'd be able to squeeze a couple inches out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:50 AM, Juliancolton said: Wow, that kind of sucks. We always knew precip would have a hard time pushing north and east, but I thought I'd be able to squeeze a couple inches out of it. Expand Lets see how things pan out. I also think this is gonna be a nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 2:54 AM, snywx said: Lets see how things pan out. I also think this is gonna be a nowcast event. Expand RGEM is running now so lets see if hat backs off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2016 Share Posted December 6, 2016 On 12/6/2016 at 3:04 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM is running now so lets see if hat backs off Expand Still looks ok for western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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