Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread Part 2

[Rtd208]

 

[Mophstymeo]

Interesting read: http://www.stormhamster.com/e011318b.htm

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, Mophstymeo said:

Interesting read: http://www.stormhamster.com/e011318b.htm

Good discussion. Thanks.

[CIK62]

So complex, that the writer probably intends to use it support whatever Feb/Mar brings.

Meanwhile JB has begun  to skip by Feb. and now talks about Mar. saving things.

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

So complex, that the writer probably intends to use it support whatever Feb/Mar brings.

Meanwhile JB has begun  to skip by Feb. and now talks about Mar. saving things.

He loves Feb and March 

[Brian5671]

On 1/14/2018 at 4:45 PM, CIK62 said:

So complex, that the writer probably intends to use it support whatever Feb/Mar brings.

Meanwhile JB has begun  to skip by Feb. and now talks about Mar. saving things.

Not really-he says colder pattern will become established by Mid Feb.

[Northwest NJ]

When there wasn't as much information on the web as there is now I would read the Accuweather blogs quite frequently.  I know that Bastardi is now at Weatherbell and that Henry Margusity retired but I always thought Joe Lundberg was a very good  short term forecaster for the Northeast  but I can't find him anymore.  Has he moved on from Accuweather?

[donsutherland1]

13 hours ago, Northwest NJ said:

When there wasn't as much information on the web as there is now I would read the Accuweather blogs quite frequently.  I know that Bastardi is now at Weatherbell and that Henry Margusity retired but I always thought Joe Lundberg was a very good  short term forecaster for the Northeast  but I can't find him anymore.  Has he moved on from Accuweather?

Joe Lundberg is still listed on the Accuweather site: https://www.accuweather.com/en/personalities/joe-lundberg

In addition, he is referenced on the WHUD radio site (noting his affiliation with Accuweather): http://www.whud.com/meet-the-whud-djs-joe-lundberg/

He simply might not be blogging any longer.

[uncle W]

I hear Joe L sometimes on the Joe Piscopo show on 970am in the morning...

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Joe Lundberg is still listed on the Accuweather site: https://www.accuweather.com/en/personalities/joe-lundberg

In addition, he is referenced on the WHUD radio site (noting his affiliation with Accuweather): http://www.whud.com/meet-the-whud-djs-joe-lundberg/

He simply might not be blogging any longer.

I feel like with twitter and social media people want real time updates so waiting to read a column is becoming obsolete

[Brian5671]

35 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I feel like with twitter and social media people want real time updates so waiting to read a column is becoming obsolete

so much garbage on social media that you have to wade through...

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

so much garbage on social media that you have to wade through...

Yeah but people aren't going to pay for accuweather pro to read his column which he might update once a week

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah but people aren't going to pay for accuweather pro to read his column which he might update once a week

That is definitely true.   Once JB left Pro, I'm sure subs plummeted, but as you note, I'm sure the decline continued as well as people found the same type of stuff out there for free.

[Rtd208]

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Wrote this away.

 

Meaningful changes will begin to occur by day 15.

Ridging is going up through AK , the EPO goes negative and the WPO remains negative so it just feeds Arctic air off the Asian continent into Canada. 

Take that 3 days from here ( 500 posted ) and I believe the trough is back in the east.

So when that trough does come east will be filled with stable cold Arctic air. 

I like closing up W Canada and if the  day 15 500 mb look  is feedback over the Rockies then the ridge in the east will be already weaker by day 15. 

 

Feb 5 ish is still my call. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I feel like with twitter and social media people want real time updates so waiting to read a column is becoming obsolete

Clearly, the rise of Social Media has made near real-time analyses and updates feasible. Many look forward to such fresh information.

However, there is a real quality issue. Sensationalism is all too common (often with the most extreme model maps being posted for upcoming events). Plain misunderstanding of complex relationships is another one e.g., I recall one Twitter account was suggesting that a high-amplitude MJO event during June 2015 was unusual for what was a rising El Niño event when, in fact, during that time of year such events often take place during strengthening El Niños on account of shorter wave lengths. Overly deterministic assessments that ignore uncertainty is another matter.

Having said this, on balance Social Media has been beneficial in the dissemination of meteorological information. But to realize such benefits, one needs to be able to differentiate between quality sources and others. Many who actively participate on various weather forums can readily differentiate. I'm not so sure the less engaged general public can.

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Clearly, the rise of Social Media has made near real-time analyses and updates feasible. Many look forward to such fresh information.

However, there is a real quality issue. Sensationalism is all too common (often with the most extreme model maps being posted for upcoming events). Plain misunderstanding of complex relationships is another one e.g., I recall one Twitter account was suggesting that a high-amplitude MJO event during June 2015 was unusual for what was a rising El Niño event when, in fact, during that time of year such events often take place during strengthening El Niños on account of shorter wave lengths. Overly deterministic assessments that ignore uncertainty is another matter.

Having said this, on balance Social Media has been beneficial in the dissemination of meteorological information. But to realize such benefits, one needs to be able to differentiate between quality sources and others. Many who actively participate on various weather forums can readily differentiate. I'm not so sure the less engaged general public can.

Ya that's a well-balanced take on the impact of social media, Don.  Like any other tool, it can do quite a bit of good if one knows how to use it.  A hammer is useful too, but not if you are swinging at nails with the claw.  Similarly, with respect to meteorological information on social media, you will find yourself misled unless you have some background knowledge of the subjects with which it bombards you.

Decent analogy can be drawn to the current state of our political affairs here, but that's one for a different forum

[CIK62]

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20.   He was 83.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article

[Yanksfan]

8 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20.   He was 83.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article

When I first got into this weather hobby back in the day as a kid growing up, John Coleman was one of my favorite weathermen on TV. He was truly one of the greats. R.I.P. John.

[Rtd208]

 

[Rtd208]

 

[weathermedic]

Bernie Rayno said upcoming pattern looks like the first couple of weeks in Feb will be cold and stormy in the east. Not too enthusiastic about Mon-Tue. Says that may give eastern New England a few inches of snow. He said pattern looks like it wants to form a storm and move it up along the eastern seaboard  in the next week Friday time frame. We shall see.

[25thamendmentfan]

On 1/18/2018 at 5:01 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Clearly, the rise of Social Media has made near real-time analyses and updates feasible. Many look forward to such fresh information.

However, there is a real quality issue. Sensationalism is all too common (often with the most extreme model maps being posted for upcoming events). Plain misunderstanding of complex relationships is another one e.g., I recall one Twitter account was suggesting that a high-amplitude MJO event during June 2015 was unusual for what was a rising El Niño event when, in fact, during that time of year such events often take place during strengthening El Niños on account of shorter wave lengths. Overly deterministic assessments that ignore uncertainty is another matter.

Having said this, on balance Social Media has been beneficial in the dissemination of meteorological information. But to realize such benefits, one needs to be able to differentiate between quality sources and others. Many who actively participate on various weather forums can readily differentiate. I'm not so sure the less engaged general public can.

I agree sensationalism and the demand for clicks is a disaster in news and weather. Whenever there's a big weather event novice consumers latch on to these colorful maps and bogus solutions. But it sure beats 1982 before widespread cable and internet when our only weather sources during the day were Craig Allen and noaa weather radios. Uncle wethbee has Craig Allen on in the background of lots of his Brooklyn 1980s snow videos.

[weathermedic]

1 hour ago, 25thamendmentfan said:

I agree sensationalism and the demand for clicks is a disaster in news and weather. Whenever there's a big weather event novice consumers latch on to these colorful maps and bogus solutions. But it sure beats 1982 before widespread cable and internet when our only weather sources during the day were Craig Allen and noaa weather radios. Uncle wethbee has Craig Allen on in the background of lots of his Brooklyn 1980s snow videos.

...Or the once an hour (during the daytime hours-report was usually repeated for a couple of hours before it would be updated 2 or 3 times a day) for a live Accuweather report on 1010 WINS when Dr. Joe Sobel or Eliot Abrams or JB would come on the air.

[doncat]

16 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

...Or the once an hour (during the daytime hours-report was usually repeated for a couple of hours before it would be updated 2 or 3 times a day) for a live Accuweather report on 1010 WINS when Dr. Joe Sobel or Eliot Abrams or JB would come on the air.

Yeah I remember waiting for those  updates growing up lol...I remember back when Joel Meyers would do the mid afternoon updates.

[The Plowsman]

I agree sensationalism and the demand for clicks is a disaster in news and weather. Whenever there's a big weather event novice consumers latch on to these colorful maps and bogus solutions. But it sure beats 1982 before widespread cable and internet when our only weather sources during the day were Craig Allen and noaa weather radios. Uncle wethbee has Craig Allen on in the background of lots of his Brooklyn 1980s snow videos.

Come on now, follow the money! Geeez. Bottom line, networks care *Only* about their ratings n ad dollars.

[Brian5671]

On 1/26/2018 at 10:56 AM, weathermedic said:

...Or the once an hour (during the daytime hours-report was usually repeated for a couple of hours before it would be updated 2 or 3 times a day) for a live Accuweather report on 1010 WINS when Dr. Joe Sobel or Eliot Abrams or JB would come on the air.

yup-remember listening on KYW in Philly they would come on around :36 after the hour...if you missed it you had to wait an hour.

[CIK62]

And they always made you feel like they are in your city.  But the same ACCUWEATHER person can be followed from Boston-Philly-NYC at a different number of minutes after the hour/half hour.   Really, for two of the cities they are only looking at a RADAR screen/computer terminal and not out their window!

Back around Aug. 05, 1999, NYC was hit by 4 Thunder Storms in 2.5 hours, and WINS did not have a word about it in a "live" report I heard while on the beach, despite the fact I was already getting ready to flee from the imminent storm #1 that PM.

[Rtd208]

Nice write up by Earthlight and crew.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/02/03/sudden-stratospheric-warming-increasingly-likely-mean/

[CIK62]

NYNJPA waved the white flag and gave up on the remainder of the winter.   A wrong way SSW does us in.