SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Those decadal averages really show just how much of a snow haven we've been in since 2000. Those 80s must have been putrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Those decadal averages really show just how much of a snow haven we've been in since 2000. Those 80s must have been putrid. They were. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 DT (WxRisk) https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2017 Share Posted November 8, 2017 NYC averaged around 42" of precipitation up to 1970...after 1970 the average is near 50"...big snow storm frequency is the reason for higher snow totals... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 Glenn schwartz Winter outlook. Going warm an little snow. No big storms at all https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-21st-Annual-Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Warmer-Air-Less-Snow-456201723.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Glenn schwartz Winter outlook. Going warm an little snow. No big storms at all https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-21st-Annual-Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Warmer-Air-Less-Snow-456201723.html This is understandable. If we get a typical Central Based/-QBO/-PDO. Then this forecast can verify quite easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 7 hours ago, Stormman96 said: Glenn schwartz Winter outlook. Going warm an little snow. No big storms at all https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-21st-Annual-Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Warmer-Air-Less-Snow-456201723.html He's going typical la niña I feel like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 9, 2017 Share Posted November 9, 2017 if the ao nao forecast materialized Glenn's forecast is in trouble... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 10, 2017 Share Posted November 10, 2017 JB continues to stress his belief the CFS is dead wrong on heat in the East. Next 6 weeks plus will be wicked, he says. Ski to your heart's delight in northeast too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Earthlight and crew. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 DT (WxRisk) Final 2017-18 Winter Outlook https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WINTERFINAL1718.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) Final 2017-18 Winter Outlook https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WINTERFINAL1718.pdf Wow.. Looks like he is going all in on a cold, snowy winter for the NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 3 hours ago, snywx said: Wow.. Looks like he is going all in on a cold, snowy winter for the NE. That’s below normal temps and above normal precip wall to wall. That would be a 95/96 type winter if it verfied. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbo073 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 How many calls does he make, everyone else makes 1 call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 I would never want any of these 'experts' to be a witness for me-----but I would love to have the pleasure of cross examining them. I will just stick to the CFS, bad as it is, which keeps telling the story of a late winter that lasts beyond the meteorological winter by two months. It practically banishes the red hues by Jan.---from the whole continent. To show the futility here, the JMA has generally BN for the next 3-4 weeks, and CFS is AN. These 'critters' would have trouble beating a stopped clock. Now if I only could find my Tarot Cards, the ones with the NAO, PNA, EPO, WPO, EL NINO, LA NINA, LA NADA, MODOKI, QBO, SSW etc. ------ I would make my own predictions. Oh here is a good substitute. My collection of used Chinese ChopSticks. Why, I'll just tossed them into air and read their entrails---and the answer is.......................... TBC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: I would never want any of these 'experts' to be a witness for me-----but I would love to have the pleasure of cross examining them. I will just stick to the CFS, bad as it is, which keeps telling the story of a late winter that lasts beyond the meteorological winter by two months. It practically banishes the red hues by Jan.---from the whole continent. To show the futility here, the JMA has generally BN for the next 3-4 weeks, and CFS is AN. These 'critters' would have trouble beating a stopped clock. Now if I only could find my Tarot Cards, the ones with the NAO, PNA, EPO, WPO, EL NINO, LA NINA, LA NADA, MODOKI, QBO, SSW etc. ------ I would make my own predictions. Oh here is a good substitute. My collection of used Chinese ChopSticks. Why, I'll just tossed them into air and read their entrails---and the answer is.......................... TBC. A friend of mine said, after I was trying to explain what I obviously didn't understand, " cut the crap and use this" he handed me a weather rock. Told me to put it in a clear open area and if it's wet it's raining, white it's snowing, if dry, I can figure out for myself. He did have a point, at least, where I'm concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 CFS's December Outlook still looks awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, CIK62 said: CFS's December Outlook still looks awful. It's an awful model!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 5 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said: It's an awful model!! it had wall to wall warmth for November as well...how's that working out? BUST 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 26, 2017 Share Posted November 26, 2017 In Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter he does acknowledge the models showing a colder pattern beginning the 2nd week of December but does have concerns that the warm shelf and gulf stream waters could limit wintry weather chances along the eastern seaboard with precipitation being more wet then white. He also has some concerns that the last 2 weeks of December could slide back to a semi zonal flow as well. He is more or less still on the train that the mid west and great lakes will be the big winners this winter which would continue to support his winter outlook agenda. Have to see how things continue to evolve as we head into December but I am liking how things are evolving so far especially from week 2 of December forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 27, 2017 Share Posted November 27, 2017 On 11/26/2017 at 2:56 AM, Rtd208 said: In Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter he does acknowledge the models showing a colder pattern beginning the 2nd week of December but does have concerns that the warm shelf and gulf stream waters could limit wintry weather chances along the eastern seaboard with precipitation being more wet then white. He also has some concerns that the last 2 weeks of December could slide back to a semi zonal flow as well. He is more or less still on the train that the mid west and great lakes will be the big winners this winter which would continue to support his winter outlook agenda. Have to see how things continue to evolve as we head into December but I am liking how things are evolving so far especially from week 2 of December forward. That's a legit concern given the well above normal waters off the coast. Later this winter that will work in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 ..with a big grain of salt i decided to look @ accuweathers long range forecasts..they don't see any colder temps at all.. all daytime highs in the 40's..right thru christmas..what does this mean?? absolutely nothing!!.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/8/2017 at 8:04 AM, uncle W said: NYC averaged around 42" of precipitation up to 1970...after 1970 the average is near 50"...big snow storm frequency is the reason for higher snow totals... Indeed. We either get 1-3 inches of snow or 10+ it seems. Moderate snowstorms have become extremely rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 6 hours ago, Paragon said: Indeed. We either get 1-3 inches of snow or 10+ it seems. Moderate snowstorms have become extremely rare. I wouldn’t say that, we had a bunch of moderate events in 13/14 and 15/16. But yes the big events have Devine much more frequent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 I kind of find it funny how the Mid-Atlantic folks on this forum seem to like the upcoming cold pattern way more than the NYC forum. It feels almost as if they expect another 2009-2010 snow apocalypse for them this month. For December, just give me two 4-8" snowstorms that occurs with temps in the teens/lower 20s along with great snow pack retention (-5 or lower monthly temp departure) and I'm happy. Hopefully, any relaxation in the pattern happens after the 25th. The 12"+ storm can happen in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 NY NJ PA WeatherVerified account @nynjpaweather 3h3 hours ago More A potential winter storm is brewing for next weekend with heavy snow a threat for Saturday into Sunday morning. Details on the way! https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 3:59 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I wouldn’t say that, we had a bunch of moderate events in 13/14 and 15/16. But yes the big events have Devine much more frequent You get that a lot in winters where we have a lot of mixed events (like 93-94 and 13-14). 15-16 though we had 70% of our snow in one storm (30 inches in Jan 2016 storm.) I think 14-15 New England got the jackpot every time (except eastern LI shared in the jackpot in the Jan 2015 storm.) Another winter like that was 2004-05, except we did a bit better with the Jan 2005 storm than we did with the Jan 2015 storm (except for eastern LI) 2003-04 was another example, cold almost like 1993-94 but more snow than ice (but snowfall total was less than 1993-94 because the events were less frequent.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 5 hours ago, NEG NAO said: NY NJ PA WeatherVerified account @nynjpaweather 3h3 hours ago More A potential winter storm is brewing for next weekend with heavy snow a threat for Saturday into Sunday morning. Details on the way! https://twitter.com/nynjpaweather?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author Wouldn' that mean this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 On 11/6/2017 at 5:46 PM, SnoSki14 said: Those decadal averages really show just how much of a snow haven we've been in since 2000. Those 80s must have been putrid. So were the 70s. The only great winter in the 70s was 1978, outside of that it was either cold and dry or mild and dry or mild and wet lol. Outside of 1977 even the summers in the 70s were boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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