Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: even dt is discounting this latest euro run... It shouldn't be discounted, just taken with a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It shouldn't be discounted, just taken with a grain of salt i believe that is what i said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 very odd for dt he usually likes to give nyc the shaft...:P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Craig Allen Quick Sunday afternoon update for now- WCBS Newsradio 880 PIX 11 With a little more urgency! On this quiet, unseasonably cold Sunday, here's where we stand with the Monday night-Wednesday winter storm threat. Like yesterday, I'll keep it simple and not-too-meteorological, lol...for now. All the weather maps- and I mean every one of them, from operational to ensembles to experimentals- still shows a major impact snowstorm developing Monday night and lasting through Tuesday night with lingering snow on Wednesday. It has the makings of a full fledged nor’easter by the book (Glossary of Meteorology). This storm will require several ingredients to get together at the perfect time. The cold air is already in place. Gulf moisture and Pacific energy diving into the US will meet up. In the world of meteorology, it’s like threading a needle, but when it does happen, that’s how you get memorable east coast storms. There will be all kinds of extra data pouring into these models over the next 2 days. Reconnaissance flights will be added as well. . The devil remains in the details but odds favor a huge snowstorm with blizzard conditions possible. All those pieces have to get together at just the right time. We’re nearly 100% certain these systems will form into one big one along the mid Atlantic coast but the track from there will be very critical. If it then takes a perfect path of 75-100 miles off L.I., then we'll be dealing with the biggest snowfall of the season. Perhaps a foot or two with gale force winds and blowing and drifting snow. The region would grind to a halt for a day or two. Most models are showing this track. However, a few other models are indicating subtle differences. The NAM was the outlier yesterday being closest to the coast and therefore with the most influx of warmer ocean air so the snow would change to rain for several hours and knock back the accumulations substantially, especially east of the I-95 corridor for all coastal areas, especially the NJ shore and south shore/east end of L.I. The NAM is falling more in line with others in keeping the Low a little farther offshore and has brought the big snows as far south & east as NYC & western L.I. It still shows a period of mixing or changing farther south & east. I just looked at the new Canadian GGEM and after showing blockbuster snow totals last night, it has now backed more towards the coast and reduiced the snow depths across southern NJ and eastern L.I. The UK is a big snow hit as well. In fact, all models show the storm 'bombing out' once offshore. That rapid intensification could lead to snowfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour, white outs and possible thundersnow. There is very little chance that the track could be farther out to sea. The euro burped yesterday aftyernoon but has now come back in line. Very odd for the euro to do that. For now, just be know you will need to change plans for the first few days of this upcoming week. Absolutely consider alternatives. Airports could close. Schools definitely will under this scenario. Whether it's all snow or a mix, this has the potential to be a high impact event. Where was this when you normally expect this, a month ago. I've gotten to used to the delightful spring-like weather this winter presented more often that not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Bernie Rayno (used the word epic) heading in to work to make a video. Says no reason not to go with the 12z European. Also said to expect at least some mixing into I-95. "Tremendous" snow just west of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Jeff Smith from Channel 7 in NYC (AccuWeather outlet) just updated snowfall amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Yes, on air Jeff Smith just said 12-18" for NYC and up to 24" for those NW of the City. He said amounts drop off as you head east on Long Island, with 12" in westernmost Nassau, down to 6" as you head east across Suffolk County. This is the accuweather forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 During the full forecast Jeff Smith elaborated and said he doesn't expect ANY mixing across western Long Island or any area he has under his 12 inch band, but he expects amounts to be lower across Western Long Island and NYC because of lower ratios and a possible dry slot. He said temps will not get above 32 from Islip and points west. He said 12-15 inches for NYC and Western Long Island and up to 24" to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I think at this range its a good idea to have 12 - 24 because of all the uncertainties regarding banding and possible mixing in some areas.......... 17 hours ago, weathermedic said: Jeff Smith from Channel 7 in NYC (AccuWeather outlet) just updated snowfall amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Bernie is going for 6 -12 in NYC http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/expert-forecasts/snowstorm-tuesday-snow-amounts-over-2-feet/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s_parr1092 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I think his 15" zone is a little far SE at this point, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Twc lowered to 6 to 10 for NYC stating RPM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Earthlight still bullish: https://twitter.com/jhomenuk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Crankywxguy from Twitter was right again. He really is very good at this stuff.Edit: He's more into analysis than forecasting; that's why he's so good. He uses the maps to show the evolution of a storm or pattern and just says, "here's what's happening." Last night, he noted that the hrrr was likely going snowy because the storm was wobbling and the model was misreading it as actual movement; and he noted that the low was forming further north and west while others were insisting it was further east.Last year, he noted the shift early morning of the January blizzard while others, like DT, were mocking the NWS for the blizzard warning in NYC.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 0:04 AM, nycwinter said: very odd for dt he usually likes to give nyc the shaft...:P and the one time he doesn't he busts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 10:35 AM, mophstymeo01 said: Crankywxguy from Twitter was right again. He really is very good at this stuff. Edit: He's more into analysis than forecasting; that's why he's so good. He uses the maps to show the evolution of a storm or pattern and just says, "here's what's happening." Last night, he noted that the hrrr was likely going snowy because the storm was wobbling and the model was misreading it as actual movement; and he noted that the low was forming further north and west while others were insisting it was further east. Last year, he noted the shift early morning of the January blizzard while others, like DT, were mocking the NWS for the blizzard warning in NYC. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk He is , perhaps 5-10 times smarter than DT. Cranky is intelligent, humble and has an excellent way of explaining. In a lot of ways far less ''cranky'' than DT or JB. Best Met teacher I have seen and he is consistent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: and the one time he doesn't he busts.... every weather person busted for nyc on that storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 He is , perhaps 5-10 times smarter than DT. Cranky is intelligent, humble and has an excellent way of explaining. In a lot of ways far less ''cranky'' than DT or JB. Best Met teacher I have seen and he is consistent!He's far from cranky, you're right. And he's a great resource. One of the reasons he's so good is that he doesn't do forecasts -- not really -- so he doesn't really need to defend his calls. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 Can of worms = opened. Read it and weep: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/national-weather-service-accused-of-knowingly-misleading-public-blizzard/?ftag=COS-05-10aaa0g&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=58cb58ed04d3016ea59abbc6&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 DT (WxRisk) Preliminary 2017-18 Winter Forecast. https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718short.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Larry Cosgrove released his winter outlook and its not great for cold/snow lovers but we kind of new that from hints he gave in the previous weekend newsletter but his monthly confidence levels don't seem very high either. Without going into to much detail here is a quick breakdown. November: Temps-above normal. Confidence level 5 out of 10 December: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10 January: Temps- above to much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10 February: Temps- near normal. Confidence level 3 out of 10 March: Temps- near normal. Confidence level 2 out of 10 Snowfall: Below normal For those who are on his email list you can read it in detail for yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 4 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Larry Cosgrove released his winter outlook and its not great for cold/snow lovers but we kind of new that from hints he gave in the previous weekend newsletter but his monthly confidence levels don't seem very high either. Without going into to much detail here is a quick breakdown. November: Temps-above normal. Confidence level 5 out of 10 December: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10 January: Temps- above to much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10 February: Temps- near normal. Confidence level 3 out of 10 March: Temps- near normal. Confidence level 2 out of 10 Snowfall: Below normal For those who are on his email list you can read it in detail for yourselves. To be fair, I haven't read Mr. Cosgrove's forecast in detail. But given the immense lack of below-normal monthly departures in the last few years, to me, forecasting above normal temps with a confidence level less than or equal to 50% seems like a pretty 'safe' way to go, isn't it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 NJ.com article about some of the 2017/18 winter outlooks that were issued for our region. http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/11/experts_reveal_winter_predictions_nj_snow_forecast.html#incart_river_home_pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 22 hours ago, Rtd208 said: NJ.com article about some of the 2017/18 winter outlooks that were issued for our region. http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/11/experts_reveal_winter_predictions_nj_snow_forecast.html#incart_river_home_pop Nice find, I’m surprised to see the somewhat bullish snow forecasts. This could easily be a clunker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 I get 29" as the 30 year average for NYC. These experts are telling you the average is 25," so their claims of an above average snowy winter looks right when we terminate with the real average of 29"+, especially prevalent in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 18 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Nice find, I’m surprised to see the somewhat bullish snow forecasts. This could easily be a clunker Nina years are always concerning here. Ninas keep the SE Ridge strong as well as the Pacific Jet. We could have an 07-08 winter with tons of SWFE events that nail I-90, or one with tons of Lakes cutters. If we can get a few periods of blocking, it could be another blockbuster like 10-11. Could really go either way. If it's not roaring into a strong Nina, our odds are probably better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Not necessarily a big ticket winter but not bad either. https://www.vencoreweather.com/20172018-winter-outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, Dakota said: For example; from 1970 - 2000; it barely snowed at all in NYC; the mean was in the range of 20 inches annually. Thus, someone considering re-locating to NY who referenced that 30 year interval and disregarded the 100+ previous years would have been under a serious misapprehension...a misapprehension that would be realized over the 2001 - 2017 period; when things reverted to a pre-1970 state of affairs and NYC became moderately snowy. Whenever anyone asks what's NYCs snow average, I always say 29" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Your theory works if we are not chasing a moving target. If anything, a shorter time frame like 20 years, updated every other year should be shown along side the longest recording period available----1869 onward, in order to view the change or at least the current most trend. What has happened here is what would happen if you were rolling fair dice and suddenly someone substituted loaded dice. The number 7 would be skewed upward. The earlier collected data would look to be in error. Sounds like our temperatures and precipitation to me. More snow falls now because precipitation has increased 15% since the mid 1960's, even using the 5 year drought just before that time means little, it is nothing but a small echo to the average. In the winter, till NYC warms too much, this means more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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