Rtd208 Posted December 25, 2018 Share Posted December 25, 2018 DT (WxRisk) https://youtu.be/hTugbiit9hM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 4, 2019 Share Posted January 4, 2019 Really great video by DT (WxRisk) laying out all the possibilities over the next couple of weeks. https://youtu.be/OietW1ud-to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 From PB JB "While phasing and a huge storm is on the table, what is also on the table is a lesser phased system meteorologically but still a large storm..one with a distinct area of high ratio snow, The northern feature may never link up with the southern feature, or simply lead it, But a healthy pressure fall center coming southeast and then east through the Ohio Valley with a Banana shaped arctic high over it, means enough convergence to produce a healthy swath of snow with old school upward motion/5k temp 20 to 30 to 1 ideas getting involved. Naturally, where you can intersect the two, phase the trough, have the big high, and deepen a storm with -8 around, you can produce a punishing storm, That is what the GFS is trying to do. I said on the Avenger this morning I liked where the positive was in southern Canada for the mid-Atlantic into the northeast for this. I would like the MJO to hold in phase 8 an extra day or two The Euro looks rather strange to me, though trending stronger, because what is on its tail off the west coast should kick more energy out in the southern branch quicker and argues for the phasing, My usual correction to the euro is to kick that out, my usual correction to the GFS is to take storms north, Since the GFS is already north, This storm is a bit like the 2003 storm in that there was not a strong negative with that storm, There was alot of high pressure around, and the upper heights were not that low, but the gradient was there. Sudden shortening can produce that, The gradient between a 980 mb low and 1020 high is the same as one between a 1000 mb and 1040. My point is if you look at the heights, the trough is not that strong with 552 heights The euros dragging of energy is going to cause it problems so at this time while I can't discount it, partly because of the MJO considerations, it looks very strange to me I see this map with what is behind this, and I think this should march out on its merry way like the GFS, with enough northern branch feeding in to produce the storm This ( GFS ) looks better Like I said with the kicker behind it, why should it stop bringing the whole trough out.. But keeping it behind and feeding out pieces it destroys the major storm idea. I think the answer is in between My take is that the Euro is too weak, the GFS is better, but the MJO collapsing or heading into 1 complicates the matter for me. So from now I think a lesser idea than the GFS, but stronger than the euro is where I am The best idea may be the GEFS ensemble we can enhance the snow when we settle on the -8C isotherm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2019 Share Posted February 2, 2019 DT after looking at the indicies "HERE IT IS !! MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY - Even though Models keep forecasting -NAO/ Greenland Block it has YET to show up. After FEB 9-10 if the -NAO/ Greenland Block still does NOT show up... Winter in eastern US will end early" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2019 Share Posted February 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: DT after looking at the indicies "HERE IT IS !! MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY - Even though Models keep forecasting -NAO/ Greenland Block it has YET to show up. After FEB 9-10 if the -NAO/ Greenland Block still does NOT show up... Winter in eastern US will end early" Hah! And if my aunt had...well you know the rest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Found this and decided to bump it, probably useful for the upcoming Wed/Thu storm. Put questions about DT and other private mets in this thread too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 2, 2021 Share Posted January 2, 2021 (397) Upcoming Potentially Major Snowstorm - YouTube Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just a note from a retired NWS forecaster this is not NWS supported, especially since the NWS is part of the Department of Commerce, developing the weather industry. These are my own words and I know would never be supported by anyone in NWS management. So, the following probably is of no bother to anyone who was not in the NWS. I am slightly irritated by TV mets comparing their accuracy to the NWS. You can bet the NWS lays out the ground work for all media through it's extensive quality controlled data gathering, model productions-international availability, and forecast/watch-warning-advisory-statement production, 24x7 365. While it may be true at times that the private sector is superior, I do know the NWS is a group collaboration, forecasts constrained at times by differing opinions (forecaster biases) and attempts to produce a useful product via the ONE VOICE method, to the benefit of not only metro regions but the rural sectors (ALL of our USA). Their must be another way to display competitive superiority. This certainly differs from the private sector which often can offer a differing (probabilistic?) opinion using whatever resources, such as we do here on this forum. Overall, this is small potatoes but I thought it good to voice my small concern. ps...1/22 7A: noted an improvement in advertising this morning. Thank you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Just a note from a retired NWS forecaster this is not NWS supported, especially since the NWS is part of the Department of Commerce, developing the weather industry. These are my own words and I know would never be supported by anyone in NWS management. So, the following probably is of no bother to anyone who was not in the NWS. I am slightly irritated by TV mets comparing their accuracy to the NWS. You can bet the NWS lays out the ground work for all media through it's extensive quality controlled data gathering, model productions-international availability, and forecast/watch-warning-advisory-statement production, 24x7 365. While it may be true at times that the private sector is superior, I do know the NWS is a group collaboration, forecasts constrained at times by differing opinions (forecaster biases) and attempts to produce a useful product via the ONE VOICE method, to the benefit of not only metro regions but the rural sectors (ALL of our USA). Their must be another way to display competitive superiority. This certainly differs from the private sector which often can offer a differing (probabilistic?) opinion using whatever resources, such as we do here on this forum. Overall, this is small potatoes but I thought it good to voice my small concern. Walt, if trust/demonstrated competence/sincerity count for anything, I’ll stay with your interpretations. The atmosphere can sort out the rest of it. As always .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, rclab said: Walt, if trust/demonstrated competence/sincerity count for anything, I’ll stay with your interpretations. The atmosphere can sort out the rest of it. As always .... I just get a little concerned when our NWS (Federal Public) services, which i know are provided by dedicated intelligent science friendly people are compared to the private sector, especially when NWS-DOC is dedicated to sharing-expanding the weather industry. The comps can be done private to private, but I think for an estimated $8/year tax payer dollars... the Federal return is pretty good. The NWS will work together with all sectors, no matter the situation. Civil Servants. I could have ignored this, and had I been a NWS manager, would have. But in retiree mode just thought it might be good to voice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, wdrag said: I just get a little concerned when our NWS (Federal Public) services, which i know are provided by dedicated intelligent science friendly people are compared to the private sector, especially when NWS-DOC is dedicated to sharing-expanding the weather industry. The comps can be done private to private, but I think for an estimated $8/year tax payer dollars... the Federal return is pretty good. The NWS will work together with all sectors, no matter the situation. Civil Servants. I could have ignored this, and had I been a NWS manager, would have. But in retiree mode just thought it might be good to voice. Walt, I worked for the USPS fo over 43 years. For 34 of those years I worked as an operations specialist in the Industrial Engineering Department. Our task was, basically, how to move mail with state of the art technology within the body of a dinosaur. My respect for you is high as it is for all Civil Servants. I still wear those multi-decade shoes. As always .... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, rclab said: Walt, I worked for the USPS fo over 43 years. For 34 of those years I worked as an operations specialist in the Industrial Engineering Department. Our task was, basically, how to move mail with state of the art technology within the body of a dinosaur. My respect for you is high as it is for all Civil Servants. I still wear those multi-decade shoes. As always .... You did real good... if ever lose my County job, i'd look at USPS PT. No matter the internal complaints... I know most of these jobs are highly desired, and all respected. Regards, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I can only agree as a 33 year letter carrier, retired in 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 You guys are old. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Bump!! Put the Lee Goldberg, wxrisk, Steve D etc calls here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just taking these from the storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 JB's call: 6-12 DC, 10-15 PHL, 12-18 NYC Jackpot of 30-40 from Garrett Cty to Poconos-mainly above 2000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 5 hours ago, Brian5671 said: JB's call: 6-12 DC, 10-15 PHL, 12-18 NYC Jackpot of 30-40 from Garrett Cty to Poconos-mainly above 2000 feet. 40 inches in the Poconos? thats just crazy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Jeff smith was just on facebook and shows it snowing on futurecast thru late tuesday night into early wednesday morning, also belives upton will pull the trigger on blizzard warning for coastal sections and nyc. also mention of potential draging the 18-24” jackpot zone further southeast on “latest guidance“ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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