jm1220 Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: The Euro for next February has consistently looked amazing....let's hope it doesn't end up like 2006-07 and we get a bunch of ice/sleet events! The stronger than average SE Ridge will eventually burn us near the coast and force tracks inland. We’ve been on a good run without much blocking but it can’t last forever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: The stronger than average SE Ridge will eventually burn us near the coast and force tracks inland. We’ve been on a good run without much blocking but it can’t last forever. I agree but it waxes and wanes so we win some and we loose some. As long as we do not have a repeat of 01/02 where the whole country is wall to wall warmth I’m ok with loosing a couple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted October 12, 2018 Share Posted October 12, 2018 On 10/7/2018 at 10:41 AM, Rtd208 said: Interesting discussion from Larry Cosgroves weekly newsletter last night in the longer term outlook. Not set in stone obviously but basically thinking milder temps from November 7 thru December 26 then a fairly cold and stormy January thru March. Winter could be close to 2009-10. These ideas still have to be written lightly in pencil, but you can break out the magic marker for the Christmas torch. Never seems to fail ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 13, 2018 Share Posted October 13, 2018 This is a great blog post by John (Earthlight) https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/10/13/weekender-social-media-stormy-pattern-ahead/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Larry Cogrove "The turn to colder air over much of the U.S. in this past week is really only the start of some major weather changes. Because as we approach Halloween, the threat for a large scale major storm and follow-up cold spell will be increasing. A prominent Kelvin wave is solidifying over the westernmost Pacific Ocean above Indonesia. As the Madden-Julian Oscillation is expanding eastward, this impulse may link with the polar westerlies (see shortwaves in the PRC and east of Japan), and start the process of amplifying the jet stream with a ridge over Alaska and western/northern Canada. That action would force digging of a 500MB shortwave into the lower Great Plains around Oct 25. Now this is the important part! At the same time that cold air drainage and central U.S. disturbance is taking shape, the tropical Atlantic Basin may supply a warm-core impulse or moisture fetch into the Gulf of Mexico. There are two viable candidates for warm-core cyclogenesis (Caribbean Sea and Lesser Antilles), and one or both of these systems could get drawn into the deepening extratropical storm as it approaches Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard Oct 27-29." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Well, shoot. My wife and I have been debating whether or not to commit to a 2 day outdoor event (in the hills of Dutchess County) on 11/3-4 to kick off holiday sales for her new small business. I'm not comfortable pre-paying for a spot that may be cold and wet if this end of the month scenario plays out to the cold side which appears to be the consensus at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 On 10/11/2018 at 8:45 PM, jm1220 said: The stronger than average SE Ridge will eventually burn us near the coast and force tracks inland. We’ve been on a good run without much blocking but it can’t last forever. I like that we have an el nino, it usually forces more suppressed tracks that are good for us, most of our biggest snowstorms have occurred during an el nino. It might get off to a rocky start but I have confidence in the second half of winter at least. Meanwhile I'm glad October actually feels like fall- I wasn't taking seriously the idea of a torch October. It's the fall month historically least likely to torch and we should see our first frost this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/10/17/nyc-area-forecast-freeze-watches-issued-coldest-air-season-arrives/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 ...JB predicting a cold/stormy winter for east coast. could be "spectacularly" cold..rivaling 13-14 winter. pretty bold statements even for him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, tim said: ...JB predicting a cold/stormy winter for east coast. could be "spectacularly" cold..rivaling 13-14 winter. pretty bold statements even for him! So let me get this straight. NOAA going with warm and dry conditions while JB says armageddon is coming. Someone is going to look foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 We are down to exactly Normal for the DJF period, according to the CPC. JB has an exaggerated negative bias where the CPC has Normal throughout SE/MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 5 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said: So let me get this straight. NOAA going with warm and dry conditions while JB says armageddon is coming. Someone is going to look foolish. NOAA is the worst. I’d go with warmer than usual but more than above average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Keep in mind that noaa hasn't predicted a below normal winter in the NE in a long time...I believe it's something like 10 to 15 years? At my station, going back 18 years it's split evenly between above and below normal winters as are the last 10 years. The last three winters have averaged above however. Lot of cold Marches lately, if you want to extend things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 6 hours ago, tim said: ...JB predicting a cold/stormy winter for east coast. could be "spectacularly" cold..rivaling 13-14 winter. pretty bold statements even for him! He usually predicts something similar every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 7 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said: So let me get this straight. NOAA going with warm and dry conditions while JB says armageddon is coming. Someone is going to look foolish. Focusing on the weather climate is a lot more enjoyable than following the political climate. Considering the above predictions there doesn’t, at the moment, seem to be much of a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Interesting, Larry Cosgrove still thinks milder air returns to most of the US including the Eastern Seaboard between November 7th and Christmas. It will be interesting to see if he will be right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 11 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Interesting, Larry Cosgrove still thinks milder air returns to most of the US including the Eastern Seaboard between November 7th and Christmas. It will be interesting to see if he will be right.. There's always a warmup after the first cool down. Its not going to stay like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 6:32 AM, NutleyBlizzard said: So let me get this straight. NOAA going with warm and dry conditions while JB says armageddon is coming. Someone is going to look foolish. NOAA has been going warm for years iirc and JB is always cold and stormy. If I were a betting man I'd go with above average temps and above average snow. So "warm and stormy". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 On 10/20/2018 at 12:06 PM, MeteorologicalFan said: NOAA is the worst. I’d go with warmer than usual but more than above average snowfall. Disagree with first sentence. Good bet with the second sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: Disagree with first sentence. Good bet with the second sentence. I forget the last time they went with below average? I mean global warming is definitely considered but they’ve been wrong a lot for the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 Just now, MeteorologicalFan said: I forget the last time they went with below average? I mean global warming is definitely considered but they’ve been wrong a lot for the northeast. Most months have been in the top 10-15 warmest on record globally. You can't really blame them for betting on above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeteorologicalFan Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: Most months have been in the top 10-15 warmest on record globally. You can't really blame them for betting on above average. Sounds good but hoping for a cold and snowy you know me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 Larry Cosgrove in his latest blog says most of US to be in pac zonal flow with periodic cold air intrusions between the Rockies and Appalachians at least through the 3rd week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 1 hour ago, weathermedic said: Larry Cosgrove in his latest blog says most of US to be in pac zonal flow with periodic cold air intrusions between the Rockies and Appalachians at least through the 3rd week of December. Yep I was just going to post that. He is on the warmer train until late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 28, 2018 Author Share Posted October 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Yep I was just going to post that. He is on the warmer train until late December. So am I. I like short but nice 2 week winter period from late December through early January. Then a longer 5-6 week period from late January through early March. I also don't do seasonal forecast. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Congrats D.C? https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/29/forecasters-private-sector-strongly-favor-snowy-winter-washington/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Larry Cosgrove released his 2018/19 Winter Outlook. November: Temp much above normal/Confidence Level 5 out of 10 December: Temp much above normal/Confidence level 3 out of 10 January: Temp near normal/Confidence level 3 out of 10 February: Temp much below normal/Confidence level 5 out of 10 March: Temp much below normal/Confidence level 4 out of 10 Snow/Ice Potential: Critical (which is good for snow lovers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 DT released his winter forecast: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Very bullish forecast to say the least. Even more so than JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 DT "**ALERT** RETURN OF WINTER EASTERN US AFTER DEC 30 INCREASINGLY LIKELY /3 Good chance Low develops on the front-- this could set the stage for Moderate snow from DC/ BAL to NYC in the DEC 31- JAN 1 time frame" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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