Wannabehippie Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Question When a TV "meteorologist" has no meteorological background, where to do they get their forecasts from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 https:// twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/946213088700915712 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 4:03 AM, Mophstymeo said: Expand Both the 0z NAM and GFS have taken a step toward the upper air pattern that has been shown on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 4:14 AM, donsutherland1 said: Both the 0z NAM and GFS have taken a step toward the upper air pattern that has been shown on the GGEM. Expand I just find this whole science to be fascinating -- part hard science, part art. And I love reading people's takes -- the pros, the amateurs, the enthusiasts, and the weenies. I know this comment doesn't address yours, but I haven't the skill to do so, so . . . But the changes of the surface depictions on the models was quite stark tonight; even I could see that. Wonder what the Euro does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 4:21 AM, Mophstymeo said: I just find this whole science to be fascinating -- part hard science, part art. And I love reading people's takes -- the pros, the amateurs, the enthusiasts, and the weenies. I know this comment doesn't address yours, but I haven't the skill to do so, so . . . But the changes of the surface depictions on the models was quite stark tonight; even I could see that. Wonder what the Euro does. Expand The Euro should be interesting. Its 12z run was a rather large departure from its earlier runs and the relatively consistent GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 On 12/28/2017 at 4:27 AM, donsutherland1 said: The Euro should be interesting. Its 12z run was a rather large departure from its earlier runs and the relatively consistent GGEM. Expand I'm getting too old to stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 29, 2017 Share Posted December 29, 2017 The guy can't type a grammatically accurate sentence for his life but the second half of this video is actually a pretty good explanation of teleconnections when it comes to snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago More Feel GFS feedback problem is jumping storm out to sea too much IMO, Almost every major NYC storm in past 25 years has been out to sea on the GFS 4 days before. Maybe this is GFS coup, but the feedback fairy likely causing problems, so expect model to correct west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 On 12/28/2017 at 3:37 AM, Wannabehippie said: Question When a TV "meteorologist" has no meteorological background, where to do they get their forecasts from? Expand Usually an inhouse blend of different models, at least that's what the weather channel says lol. I find it comical that Julie Martin uses the label meteorologist when she can't even pronounce cyclogenesis properly or even describe it without stumbling over the words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Right. CMC gives us 8". GFS is zippo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Is DT buying the 3K NAM? Or just posting for illustrative purposes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 On 1/3/2018 at 4:23 AM, Mophstymeo said: Is DT buying the 3K NAM? Or just posting for illustrative purposes? Expand lol I didn't even see this but when I saw what the NAM did, it instantly reminded me of the Jan 2016 snowstorm and how it won that one. More dynamic systems are the NAMs strong suit. Also he seems to be completely ignoring the 21 inches printed out over central Long Island lol and 17 inches just a few miles south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Lmao, Lonnie Quinn from CBS 2 going down the ship with the Canadian model and predicts 1"-3" for NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:03 AM, Hailstorm said: Lmao, Lonnie Quinn from CBS 2 going down the ship with the Canadian model and predicts 1"-3" for NYC. Expand TWC is saying the same thing. Maybe they're right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:11 AM, Mophstymeo said: TWC is saying the same thing. Maybe they're right? Expand Are they saying this on-air? Their online site video and local text forecast says 4"-8" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 2:21 AM, Hailstorm said: Are they saying this on-air? Their online site video and local text forecast says 4"-8" for NYC. Expand I apologize. I misread something on their site. They're still saying 4-8. On 1/4/2018 at 2:21 AM, Hailstorm said: Are they saying this on-air? Their online site video and local text forecast says 4"-8" for NYC. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 And just to continue my apology tour, TWC actually increased their forecast for snowfall in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Lee Goldberg going with 6-9" for NYC and 9-12" right from the Queens/Nassau Border on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 4:39 AM, Paragon said: Lee Goldberg going with 6-9" for NYC and 9-12" right from the Queens/Nassau Border on east. Expand That's kind of where I am -- right off the Southern State a few exits past the death-curve from the Cross Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 4:22 AM, Mophstymeo said: And just to continue my apology tour, TWC actually increased their forecast for snowfall in my area. Expand What does TWC have for you now? I have a feeling they might up totals again in the morning. Last I saw was 6" here but I'm not taking that seriously lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 12/31/2017 at 6:56 PM, NEG NAO said: Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago More Feel GFS feedback problem is jumping storm out to sea too much IMO, Almost every major NYC storm in past 25 years has been out to sea on the GFS 4 days before. Maybe this is GFS coup, but the feedback fairy likely causing problems, so expect model to correct west Expand JB Ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 7:51 AM, Paragon said: What does TWC have for you now? I have a feeling they might up totals again in the morning. Last I saw was 6" here but I'm not taking that seriously lol. Expand What they have now is what they had last night -- 5-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 TWC just upped me to 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 On 1/4/2018 at 9:30 AM, Snow88 said: JB Ftw Expand Yeah, he nailed this one. As much as he does have a cold bias he is a good met. Great example of meteorology over modelology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 JB seems worried that the thaw might not work out for him and the MJO might be going back to 1. He also sees some snow events this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2018 Share Posted January 8, 2018 On 1/8/2018 at 3:43 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah, he nailed this one. As much as he does have a cold bias he is a good met. Great example of meteorology over modelology Expand He'll score big at times but he's also incredibly biased. He will often offer the cold & snow option for the east coast even in years that don't warrant it because he knows that'll get people to buy into his stuff. He does the same during hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 SDi believes cold and stormy conditions return after Jan. 20th., while JB says Big Thaw. I do not see any conflict till Jan.28 with AN being interrupted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 2:49 PM, CIK62 said: SDi believes cold and stormy conditions return after Jan. 20th., while JB says Big Thaw. I do not see any conflict till Jan.28 with AN being interrupted. Expand January 20 is rushing things. There should be some transient cold shots rather than unrelenting warmth during the thaw. The pattern evolution back toward a colder, snowier one should commence toward the end of January. The transition could take about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 On 1/9/2018 at 2:58 PM, donsutherland1 said: January 20 is rushing things. There should be some transient cold shots rather than unrelenting warmth during the thaw. The pattern evolution back toward a colder, snowier one should commence toward the end of January. The transition could take about a week. Expand The CFS is either Clueless or Snowless for the next 33 days around here. It likes your timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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