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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread Part 2


Rjay
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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Both the 0z NAM and GFS have taken a step toward the upper air pattern that has been shown on the GGEM.

I just find this whole science to be fascinating -- part hard science, part art. And I love reading people's takes -- the pros, the amateurs, the enthusiasts, and the weenies. I know this comment doesn't address yours, but I haven't the skill to do so, so . . .

But the changes of the surface depictions on the models was quite stark tonight; even I could see that. Wonder what the Euro does.

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4 minutes ago, Mophstymeo said:

I just find this whole science to be fascinating -- part hard science, part art. And I love reading people's takes -- the pros, the amateurs, the enthusiasts, and the weenies. I know this comment doesn't address yours, but I haven't the skill to do so, so . . .

But the changes of the surface depictions on the models was quite stark tonight; even I could see that. Wonder what the Euro does.

The Euro should be interesting. Its 12z run was a rather large departure from its earlier runs and the relatively consistent GGEM. 

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On 12/27/2017 at 10:37 PM, Wannabehippie said:

Question

When a TV "meteorologist" has no meteorological background, where to do they get their forecasts from?

Usually an inhouse blend of different models, at least that's what the weather channel says lol.

I find it comical that Julie Martin uses the label meteorologist when she can't even pronounce cyclogenesis properly or even describe it without stumbling over the words.

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7 hours ago, Mophstymeo said:

Is DT buying the 3K NAM? Or just posting for illustrative purposes?

image.thumb.png.3b4693ce4d937324dfc8c41480bb533a.png

 

image.png

lol I didn't even see this but when I saw what the NAM did, it instantly reminded me of the Jan 2016 snowstorm and how it won that one.

More dynamic systems are the NAMs strong suit.

Also he seems to be completely ignoring the 21 inches printed out over central Long Island lol and 17 inches just a few miles south of us.

 

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10 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

Are they saying this on-air? Their online site video and local text forecast says 4"-8" for NYC.

 I apologize. I misread something on their site. They're still saying 4-8.

 

23 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

Are they saying this on-air? Their online site video and local text forecast says 4"-8" for NYC.

 

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3 hours ago, Mophstymeo said:

And just to continue my apology tour, TWC actually increased their forecast for snowfall in my area.

What does TWC have for you now? I have a feeling they might up totals again in the morning.

Last I saw was 6" here but I'm not taking that seriously lol.

 

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On 12/31/2017 at 1:56 PM, NEG NAO said:

Feel GFS feedback problem is jumping storm out to sea too much IMO, Almost every major NYC storm in past 25 years has been out to sea on the GFS 4 days before.  Maybe this is GFS coup, but the feedback fairy likely causing problems, so expect model to correct west

JB Ftw

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5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah, he nailed this one. As much as he does have a cold bias he is a good met. Great example of meteorology over modelology

He'll score big at times but he's also incredibly biased. He will often offer the cold & snow option for the east coast even in years that don't warrant it because he knows that'll get people to buy into his stuff. 

He does the same during hurricane season.

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8 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

SDi believes cold and stormy conditions return after Jan. 20th., while JB says Big Thaw.  I do not see any conflict till Jan.28 with AN being interrupted.

January 20 is rushing things. There should be some transient cold shots rather than unrelenting warmth during the thaw. The pattern evolution back toward a colder, snowier one should commence toward the end of January. The transition could take about a week.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

January 20 is rushing things. There should be some transient cold shots rather than unrelenting warmth during the thaw. The pattern evolution back toward a colder, snowier one should commence toward the end of January. The transition could take about a week.

The CFS is either Clueless or Snowless for the next 33 days around here.  It likes your timing.

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