More Summer Banter

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'll bite. Children born today will know a world that bears almost no resemblance to our present one. In thirty years, things will be as different as 2000 was to 1900; and that may be conservative. Important breakthroughs in medicine, genetics, engineering, additive manufacturing, artificial intelligence, quantum and optical computing, pure science, etc. are already almost commonplace, and the frequency of such advances is increasing.

Life expectancy will rapidly increase once we hit the 2030s, thanks to cheap genome sequencing, CRISPR-Cas9 based modifications to dangerous genetic mutations, cell therapies, immune therapies, telomere rejuvenation, etc. I fully expect that most cancers, even late stage, will be curable, along with bugaboos like Alzheimers and diabetes. Either we, or our children, may be the last generation of purely biological humans. Future generations may be preprogrammed at birth with certain desirable genetic traits.

There will be more robots in the world than humans, probably by a significant factor. A great deal of commerce will move by drone, providing same-hour delivery (already under testing by Amazon in some cities). There will likely be cheap, 3d printed domestic robots in our homes to do dishes, vacuum, laundry etc. Many operations will be performed by robots, with human surgeons only standing in occasionally. Only a few of us old fogies will still bother to drive ourselves. Penalties for human-error in crashes will be severe, as self-driving cars will be safer, faster and in constant communication with one another. Traffic jams will be a thing of the past. Speed limits may be 100+ highway. There may not be much commuting anyway, as physical offices may not exist; telecommuting will give way to a virtual workscape and playscape. Virtual reality will be indistinguishable from, and in many ways better than, reality.

Net positive nuclear fusion may be a reality. Safer nuclear fission facilities will proliferate rapidly, as will cheaper solar alternatives.

Weather prediction may be pretty exact, hampered only by fundamental limits of quantum randomness and sampling. Exascale or maybe yottascale computing will boost modeling precision in ways we can't even imagine. Upton might confidently predict a Manitoba Mauler a month in advance, etc.

A.I. will have the most drastic societal effects; its scope and disruptive power is hard to overestimate. It will be the single most important development of the century, and possibly mankind's last invention. Already, the industry is a decade ahead of where many predicted, and all the big companies are pouring billions into developing it. Google's Deepmind trounced the best human Go player not long ago (which is man's most complicated game, and one that requires intuition and tact and can't be calculated by brute force iteration). There is every likelihood that AI will displace much of the work force and cause structural unemployment. We may have something like a two day work week. We may have casual conversations with our phones and computers (if they aren't already micro-meshed into our synapses). There will be significant societal strains, calls for income redistribution and probably a national basic income. When or whether AI achieves human intelligence is unknown (some, like Elon Musk, think 2030-40), but if it does, there will be an intelligence explosion. AI will rapidly become orders of magnitude smarter than humanity and then we won't be able to predict what will happen. It could be the greatest thing in history, or the cause of our extinction. But at the least, the world would be utterly unrecognizable, perhaps the sort of place we might imagine it to look like thousands of years from now.  

Or, then again, we could just end up nuking ourselves in petty wars or accidentally unleashing some devastating bio-engineered pandemic that wipes most of us out...

word!

and i like, 'yottascale' ... as in, 'oh you know, they got really good at quantum computing and yotta yotta yotta, now there's no surprises ...'  

much of what you are illustrating there ...if almost ironically visualized through a thin pal of dystopian matte ...goes along with Moore's Law.  which admittedly, mine too - 

that's why the difference between Christ and Grandpa is about is much difference as Einstein and you.  Moore's Law states that technology doubles by the square, because in principle, technology serves onto the discovery of technologies.  gordon was actually talking about transisters though, and oft left out of the ruling is the all important phrase, '..for the foreseeable future.'   i don't think that means 'forever...'   before which, the transisters stop us?  - ha.  

probably long before yotta yotta yotta days are ever ever dawning humanity will have learned to control quantum moment arms ... such that 'prediction' becomes a thing of the past - more like planned execution of watering days, and/or thermal transfer equilibrium events to keep gradients to shallow slopes so big disasters ever occur.   Hense: the Weather Modification Net, proposed by Gene Roddenberry's legion of writers -  eww.  heh, imagine ...raining .33" precisely at 245 am to 345 am, then sunny all days.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

For $90 you would have thought they would have gotten the entire thing.  I know it was in a tough area to get to but I would have wanted it entirely clear.

He sprayed this stuff up there after he ripped it down. Had in this protective bee suit. They swarmed him pretty good.

[Hoth]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

word!

and i like, 'yottascale' ... as in, 'oh you know, they got really good at quantum computing and yotta yotta yotta, now there's no surprises ...'  

much of what you are illustrating there ...if almost ironically visualized through a thin pal of dystopian matte ...goes along with Moore's Law.  which admittedly, mine too - 

that's why the difference between Christ and Grandpa is about is much difference as Einstein and you.  Moore's Law states that technology doubles by the square, because in principle, technology serves onto the discovery of technologies.  gordon was actually talking about transisters though, and oft left out of the ruling is the all important phrase, '..for the foreseeable future.'   i don't think that means 'forever...'   before which, the transisters stop us?  - ha.  

probably long before yotta yotta yotta days are ever ever dawning humanity will have learned to control quantum moment arms ... such that 'prediction' becomes a thing of the past - more like planned execution of watering days, and/or thermal transfer equilibrium events to keep gradients to shallow slopes so big disasters ever occur.   Hense: the Weather Modification Net, proposed by Gene Roddenberry's legion of writers -  eww.  heh, imagine ...raining .33" precisely at 245 am to 345 am, then sunny all days.. 

All quite possible. And then imagine the carnage when another Carrington Event comes along...

[backedgeapproaching]

I find it funny and or ironic that Hoth writes an in-depth post about the advanced intelligence, engineering, etc of future generations immediately followed by a post from DIT spending weeks trying to figure out how to get rid of a bee's nest....lol.. We have a ways to go to get to Hoth's utopia..ha

 

[powderfreak]

53 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I find it funny and or ironic that Hoth writes an in-depth post about the advanced intelligence, engineering, etc of future generations immediately followed by a post from DIT spending weeks trying to figure out how to get rid of a bee's nest....lol.. We have a ways to go to get to Hoth's utopia..ha

 

lol it's the little things that are challenging.

[Ginx snewx]

Dare I say the rooster crowed this afternoon?

[West Point, NY]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dare I say the rooster crowed this afternoon?

Yes.  A perfect August afternoon. Better enjoy it while we can as I'm sure we will soon resume this wall to wall HHH summer that we will one day tell our grandchildren about. 

[moneypitmike]

9 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I find it funny and or ironic that Hoth writes an in-depth post about the advanced intelligence, engineering, etc of future generations immediately followed by a post from DIT spending weeks trying to figure out how to get rid of a bee's nest....lol.. We have a ways to go to get to Hoth's utopia..ha

 

LOL--this post is a hoot.

[CoastalWx]

Some spooky ground fog this morning. Rather cool too. Driving through the city, looks like fog formed over the Charles and is creeping through the buildings. Never seen that before.

[Michael05192016]

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

word!

and i like, 'yottascale' ... as in, 'oh you know, they got really good at quantum computing and yotta yotta yotta, now there's no surprises ...'  

much of what you are illustrating there ...if almost ironically visualized through a thin pal of dystopian matte ...goes along with Moore's Law.  which admittedly, mine too - 

that's why the difference between Christ and Grandpa is about is much difference as Einstein and you.  Moore's Law states that technology doubles by the square, because in principle, technology serves onto the discovery of technologies.  gordon was actually talking about transisters though, and oft left out of the ruling is the all important phrase, '..for the foreseeable future.'   i don't think that means 'forever...'   before which, the transisters stop us?  - ha.  

probably long before yotta yotta yotta days are ever ever dawning humanity will have learned to control quantum moment arms ... such that 'prediction' becomes a thing of the past - more like planned execution of watering days, and/or thermal transfer equilibrium events to keep gradients to shallow slopes so big disasters ever occur.   Hense: the Weather Modification Net, proposed by Gene Roddenberry's legion of writers -  eww.  heh, imagine ...raining .33" precisely at 245 am to 345 am, then sunny all days.. 

Also could backdoor cold fronts be eliminated? 

[dendrite]

Crazy fog this AM. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Some great fog in SE MA.  Looks like TAN was one of the lows spots this AM.  51F.

[Typhoon Tip]

this morning had a very subtle autumn vibe about it.  

for me, when this physicality takes place in the third proper month of summers ... it sort of ear-marks the date that particular summer commits its self to geriatrics.  we've seen septuagenarian marathon runners finish races with respectable times; we'll see what this one has in it.

but i had a dew-drenched auto amid still coolness, with sideways fog-penetrated corpuscular rays and it may as well have been frost, because it was the same effect - if just 20 or 30 F up the scale.  radiational cooling effectively squeezing out moisture as warmth is liberated and the water vapor falls out is not something i typically associate to high summer.  

i'm not saying summers over ... just that in its old age we are served these subtle reminders.  every august i have this realization, about just how fast it all turns around. the differences between May and August (in years where May behaves...) is not nearly as extreme as August and November.  that's all.  

oh...i'm sure we'll have another 90's stretch.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this morning had a very subtle autumn vibe about it.  

for me, when this physicality takes place in the third proper month of summers ... it sort of ear-marks the date that particular summer commits its self to geriatrics.  we've seen septuagenarian marathon runners finish races with respectable times; we'll see what this one has in it.

but i had a dew-drenched auto amid still coolness, with sideways fog-penetrated corpuscular rays and it may as well have been frost, because it was the same effect - if just 20 or 30 F up the scale.  radiational cooling effectively squeezing out moisture as warmth is liberated and the water vapor falls out is not something i typically associate to high summer.  

i'm not saying summers over ... just that in its old age we are served these subtle reminders.  every august i have this realization, about just how fast it all turns around. the differences between May and August (in years where May behaves...) is not nearly as extreme as August and November.  that's all.  

oh...i'm sure we'll have another 90's stretch.

 

I really tend to notice the changes in late August...though as you said some subtle hints can occur earlier.

 

In late August we typically get our first real autumn-esque cold front come through...where you almost feel this faint chill amid NW winds and blue skies....the temp is still something like high 60s to low 70s for the high so it's warm in an absolute sense but it has that crispness to it that you don't feel in July or even early August, and when the sun sets, you very rapidly lose the warmth unlike high summer. You also tend to start noticing more of the discoloration in the foliage in late August near swamps/bogs and those few unhealthy dying trees in your neighborhood which turn early...and the rest of the green landscape has the tired leathery look to it vs the brighter greens of early and mid summer.

[SJonesWX]

another subtle hint is the back-to-school commercials. 

it is crazy how soon they start now, i saw several ads back in mid July. if i was still a kid, i would have thrown my TV out the window.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I really tend to notice the changes in late August...though as you said some subtle hints can occur earlier.

 

In late August we typically get our first real autumn-esque cold front come through...where you almost feel this faint chill amid NW winds and blue skies....the temp is still something like high 60s to low 70s for the high so it's warm in an absolute sense but it has that crispness to it that you don't feel in July or even early August, and when the sun sets, you very rapidly lose the warmth unlike high summer. You also tend to start noticing more of the discoloration in the foliage in late August near swamps/bogs and those few unhealthy dying trees in your neighborhood which turn early...and the rest of the green landscape has the tired leathery look to it vs the brighter greens of early and mid summer.

i know exactly that air mass you're talking about.  the first one that actually IS an autumn in-flux, not just vibe - but that truth is perhaps off-set by earliness and lingering insolation helping to hide the fact. foliage evapotransporation also still seeding the air with enough moisture to keep the dps 'that' much elevated also off-sets the cooling potential of that air mass a little.  

still, despite the landscape trying to seed with moisture, that first air you mention has that quality of having the roof lifted off and being totally exposed - at 3 pm, you can just feel that it wants to tank long before it does.  ...under azure skies.. 

i'm like describing the air mass right before that one - haha.  seriously though ... this is the first time since the climo-apex July 21st that the air went still, the sky was star-lit and we woke up to 57 and condensation all over the place.  it's a minor tedious observation, sure, ... but ..heh, if nothing else, inevitability is like a opening that letter about the IRS' intent to lien.  we're in the interim before the lien actually happens. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

another subtle hint is the back-to-school commercials. 

it is crazy how soon they start now, i saw several ads back in mid July. if i was still a kid, i would have thrown my TV out the window.

OT but i think grade and hich-schools start in the last week of august now ... when i was a lad we were Sept 10 some years if Labor day was late enough

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i know exactly that air mass you're talking about.  the first one that actually IS an autumn in-flux, not just vibe - but that truth is perhaps off-set by earliness and lingering insolation helping to hide the fact. foliage evapotransporation also still seeding the air with enough moisture to keep the dps 'that' much elevated also off-sets the cooling potential of that air mass a little.  

still, despite the landscape trying to seed with moisture, that first air you mention has that quality of having the roof lifted off and being totally exposed - at 3 pm, you can just feel that it wants to tank long before it does.  ...under azure skies.. 

i'm like describing the air mass right before that one - haha.  seriously though ... this is the first time since the climo-apex July 21st that the air went still, the sky was star-lit and we woke up to 57 and condensation all over the place.  it's a minor tedious observation, sure, ... but ..heh, if nothing else, inevitability is like a opening that letter about the IRS' intent to lien.  we're in the interim before the lien actually happens. 

 

 

 

Right, I knew what you were talking about...like the first shot across the bow before the actual first shot across the bow.

 

Then sometime in September typically (usually after mid-month or so), we'll get that first air mass which produces frost in the deep valleys even though most of the hilltops and any urban centers don't break 45F...but that air mass is like another step down. You rebound into the mid 60s with the calmish winds and still-respectable September sun angle to mask the true identity of the air mass, if only for a few hours, and then within an hour of sunset, you can see your breath again.

 

Then we get that first fall nor' easter usually anytime within week to 3 weeks after that reminding us that the synoptic gradients are coming back into force...mid/upper 40s, stiff NE winds, gale warning on the coastal waters, steady rains...and your favorite, the tinge of woodsmoke in the air. This gets erased by a 2-3 day Indian Summer...typically the last gasp of the summer season. Then it's usually talking first shot of winter sometime in late October or early November...if not some well-timed synoptic system, it's graupel showers or even straight snow showers under a true cold pool airmass that is typically fleeting that early in the cold season, but still packs a punch for a brief day or two.

 

The step-down is always fun for me. September can become a bit monotonous if we aren't getting the occasional cool shot or a tropical disturbance to track, but typically by October there's some synoptic interest ramping up.

[CoastalWx]

Even more fascinating for me, is the seasonal migration of Kevin's mental state. Usually after mid September, the phrase "Hills stay in the 50s" can be heard. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even more fascinating for me, is the seasonal migration of Kevin's mental state. Usually after mid September, the phrase "Hills stay in the 50s" can be heard. 

 

By mid/late October it's 30s and 40s in the hills as "seasons in seasons" even though it's like -20 to -25 for climo even at ORH.

[HoarfrostHubb]

46.7F for my morning low

our living room hit 61F

 

regarding back to school ads, we received a back to school catalog before school was even done in mid June

[Hoth]

17 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

I find it funny and or ironic that Hoth writes an in-depth post about the advanced intelligence, engineering, etc of future generations immediately followed by a post from DIT spending weeks trying to figure out how to get rid of a bee's nest....lol.. We have a ways to go to get to Hoth's utopia..ha

 

Ha, I had a good chuckle over that. And I certainly would not call the future utopic. A solution to one problem often engenders new ones. As an example, collateralized mortgage obligations were invented in the '80s to address imbalances between those who would be borrowers of capital (young home buyers) and those who would lend it (older people with extra capital seeking a return). It was an elegant solution for a while, and greatly reduced cost of capital, until lending standards eroded, subprime mortgages became commonplace, people speculated and bought homes they couldn't afford, and the whole financial system choked. But yeah, bees' nests are a problem, too haha

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

By mid/late October it's 30s and 40s in the hills as "seasons in seasons" even though it's like -20 to -25 for climo even at ORH.

And lets not forget the changing of the ASOS from BDL to ORH. Always a momentous occasion. 

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

 

Right, I knew what you were talking about...like the first shot across the bow before the actual first shot across the bow.

 

Then sometime in September typically (usually after mid-month or so), we'll get that first air mass which produces frost in the deep valleys even though most of the hilltops and any urban centers don't break 45F...but that air mass is like another step down. You rebound into the mid 60s with the calmish winds and still-respectable September sun angle to mask the true identity of the air mass, if only for a few hours, and then within an hour of sunset, you can see your breath again.

 

Then we get that first fall nor' easter usually anytime within week to 3 weeks after that reminding us that the synoptic gradients are coming back into force...mid/upper 40s, stiff NE winds, gale warning on the coastal waters, steady rains...and your favorite, the tinge of woodsmoke in the air. This gets erased by a 2-3 day Indian Summer...typically the last gasp of the summer season. Then it's usually talking first shot of winter sometime in late October or early November...if not some well-timed synoptic system, it's graupel showers or even straight snow showers under a true cold pool airmass that is typically fleeting that early in the cold season, but still packs a punch for a brief day or two.

 

The step-down is always fun for me. September can become a bit monotonous if we aren't getting the occasional cool shot or a tropical disturbance to track, but typically by October there's some synoptic interest ramping up.

yup, ... that's the coastal and/or synoptic event in general, that marks the annual end of Kevin's historic catastrophic holocaustic dystopian drought that happens once a year, too - 

it's like summer = historic catastrophic holocaust drought, period ... i guess.

i was also reminiscing about how a Disk Golfing buddy of mine, also a Met, ...we notice the first of what we call a 'snow atmosphere' every autumn?  it tends to happen in the 2nd week of October ..right around in there, give or take, but it can even be some 54 degrees under desperately fragile sun-warmth on Kevin's napes. but the DP is like ...19 or something.  we call that the beginning of 'wet bulb winter', and though we can go back the other direction (of course..) it's a seasonal accomplishment getting to that particular time for us.  

[ORH_wxman]

51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup, ... that's the coastal and/or synoptic event in general, that marks the annual end of Kevin's historic catastrophic holocaustic dystopian drought that happens once a year, too - 

it's like summer = historic catastrophic holocaust drought, period ... i guess.

i was also reminiscing about how a Disk Golfing buddy of mine, also a Met, ...we notice the first of what we call a 'snow atmosphere' every autumn?  it tends to happen in the 2nd week of October ..right around in there, give or take, but it can even be some 54 degrees under desperately fragile sun-warmth on Kevin's napes. but the DP is like ...19 or something.  we call that the beginning of 'wet bulb winter', and though we can go back the other direction (of course..) it's a seasonal accomplishment getting to that particular time for us.  

 

Oh yeah definitely...the residual lower atmosphere warmth and sun masks the fact that it is -4C at 850mb and -10C at 700mb and any heavier shower would probably be graupel and eventually wet snow...wetbulbing from low 50s to 36F in a span of minutes.  

 

I always appreciate the first "snow sky" too. It doesn't even have to be before a real snow event. It can be that slate gray-white overcast where you see your breath outside. It might be some 44F day in November that stays dry, but it's a day you just don't see even in the miserable weeks of spring where 44F and gray skies is onshore flow mank. The "snow sky day" just feels like it could snow. You feel the drier characteristic of the polar airmass and not the marine-induced spring misery that a similar temperature and overcast sky can bring in April or May.

[Damage In Tolland]

Man was that just a full on weenie read

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man was that just a full on weenie read

Definitely deserves a

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol. If anything ever deserves the slaps across the face . That last discussion sure does 

[dendrite]

I will admit that the last few days did have a fall feel. From the back-to-back days of 60s and rain to the thick fog last night.

[powderfreak]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

but i had a dew-drenched auto amid still coolness, with sideways fog-penetrated corpuscular rays and it may as well have been frost, because it was the same effect - if just 20 or 30 F up the scale.  radiational cooling effectively squeezing out moisture as warmth is liberated and the water vapor falls out is not something i typically associate to high summer.  

See I associate that with high summer more than anything...we radiate and fog out just about every clear night all summer long.  Summer is definitely our morning fog season, 90% of mornings start with 1/4sm visibility at the local MVL but it's the same at BML/HIE/SLK/MPV.  This morning we got 1/8sm vis.

Any lower humidity airmass is going to be 45-55F by morning with fog, and even the real humid mornings when most wake up to like 72/67, I'll wake up to 60/60 with water dripping from the trees.

Never see thick fog like you do in a mountain valley on a humid radiational cooling night, especially if there's been a storm the evening before.  It'll be crystal clear at 1,500ft with just pea soup from 700-1,300ft.