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Monday July 25th Severe Thunderstorm Potential


bluewave

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day1otlk_1300.gif

 

..NORTHEAST...
   STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
   WESTERN NY WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
   COLD FRONT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW THIS CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE
   THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME CAMS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY DECAYS WHILE
   OTHERS PROPAGATE ITS OUTFLOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT MAINTAINED. GIVEN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY
   OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR AND LOW-LEVEL WAA LIKELY
   PERSISTING...THE LATTER SCENARIO APPEARS MORE PLAUSIBLE. SHOULD THIS
   OCCUR...CONVECTION MAY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM PARTS OF PA/NJ ON
   NORTH PRIOR TO PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER 60S TO
   LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF PA/NJ
   AND FAR SOUTHEAST NY...AND POCKETS OF ROBUST DIABATIC HEATING LIKELY
   TO OCCUR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...A RISK FOR SCATTERED
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
   LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. 

   ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG A LEE TROUGH NEAR
   THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COMPARATIVELY WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER
   CONSISTING OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR
   WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A RISK FOR
   SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE MD/DC/DE REGION AROUND LATE
   AFTERNOON.
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0415.html

ww0415_overview_big_wou.gif

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 415
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT
     NEW JERSEY
     SOUTHERN NEW YORK
     PENNSYLVANIA
     COASTAL WATERS

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
     800 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...MULTIPLE BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   SPREAD EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS WITH STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRIMARILY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
   STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST
   OF NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 35 MILES WEST OF DUBOIS PENNSYLVANIA. 
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
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I think the second round is what will really get the NYC metro. 

 

The stuff that will pass through KPOU in the next hour may lay down a boundary or two which could locally enhance potential later tonight. Have to see how the convection in PA develops and progresses throughout the afternoon. All the CAMs love the back-end, and I do too.

 

f39bdf357bacc67978d43f6c06bc1b57.png

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TORNADO WARNING
PAC015-251945-
/O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0001.160725T1855Z-160725T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 255 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MONROETON...OR NEAR TOWANDA...MOVING EAST
  AT 40 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TOWANDA AND NORTH TOWANDA AROUND 300 PM EDT.
  WYSOX AROUND 305 PM EDT.
  ROME AROUND 310 PM EDT.
  HERRICK...HERRICKVILLE AND CAMPTOWN AROUND 315 PM EDT.
  LE RAYSVILLE AND BRUSHVILLE AROUND 320 PM EDT.
  WARREN CENTER AROUND 325 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4168 7657 4181 7662 4199 7616 4173 7613
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 253DEG 35KT 4175 7652
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5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

there's a boundary settling south through the metro. this should be a focus for storms this evening

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1395.html

 

SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER TSTM CLUSTER
   EXTENDS FROM SERN NY WWD TO JUST S OF BFD -- NEAR THE WRN NY/PA
   BORDER. AS THE ONGOING LINE CONTINUES EWD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   LIKELY PROMOTE INCREASED STORM STRENGTH WITH A RESULTING INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE.

 

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1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1395.html

 


SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER TSTM CLUSTER
   EXTENDS FROM SERN NY WWD TO JUST S OF BFD -- NEAR THE WRN NY/PA
   BORDER. AS THE ONGOING LINE CONTINUES EWD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   LIKELY PROMOTE INCREASED STORM STRENGTH WITH A RESULTING INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE.

 

Thanks

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