bluewave Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 HRRR has a severe squall line moving through later today. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 ..NORTHEAST... STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN NY WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW THIS CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME CAMS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY DECAYS WHILE OTHERS PROPAGATE ITS OUTFLOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINTAINED. GIVEN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR AND LOW-LEVEL WAA LIKELY PERSISTING...THE LATTER SCENARIO APPEARS MORE PLAUSIBLE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...CONVECTION MAY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM PARTS OF PA/NJ ON NORTH PRIOR TO PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF PA/NJ AND FAR SOUTHEAST NY...AND POCKETS OF ROBUST DIABATIC HEATING LIKELY TO OCCUR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...A RISK FOR SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG A LEE TROUGH NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COMPARATIVELY WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER CONSISTING OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A RISK FOR SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE MD/DC/DE REGION AROUND LATE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 12z 4k NAM is quite impressive with multiple lines and clusters of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0415.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 415 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1245 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT NEW JERSEY SOUTHERN NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...MULTIPLE BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF NEWARK NEW JERSEY TO 35 MILES WEST OF DUBOIS PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 70mph winds and 1.5 inch hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 16 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: 70mph winds and 1.5 inch hail It's lit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 DB cape values support damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Hopefully no one looses power with heat like today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 1 minute ago, Jason WX said: Hopefully no one looses power with heat like today 70 mph winds would guarantee lots of outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 13 minutes ago, Jason WX said: It's lit lol Lmao yes it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 I think the second round is what will really get the NYC metro. The stuff that will pass through KPOU in the next hour may lay down a boundary or two which could locally enhance potential later tonight. Have to see how the convection in PA develops and progresses throughout the afternoon. All the CAMs love the back-end, and I do too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 The best shear and CAPE arrive later with the activity back in Western PA/NY. That's evolving into a full blown MCS. Hopefully the initial activity here stays far enough North not to limit the instability for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Plenty of discrete activity out there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 We're going to get slammed. The radar is completely lit up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 TORNADO WARNING PAC015-251945- /O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0001.160725T1855Z-160725T1945Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 255 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 345 PM EDT * AT 255 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MONROETON...OR NEAR TOWANDA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... TOWANDA AND NORTH TOWANDA AROUND 300 PM EDT. WYSOX AROUND 305 PM EDT. ROME AROUND 310 PM EDT. HERRICK...HERRICKVILLE AND CAMPTOWN AROUND 315 PM EDT. LE RAYSVILLE AND BRUSHVILLE AROUND 320 PM EDT. WARREN CENTER AROUND 325 PM EDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 4168 7657 4181 7662 4199 7616 4173 7613 TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 253DEG 35KT 4175 7652 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Some sick super cells over PA. This ones legit boys...!!!!!! It's game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Some sick super cells over PA. This ones legit boys...!!!!!! It's game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Some sick super cells over PA. This ones legit boys...!!!!!! It's game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 I agree LBSurfFreak, those storms out in PA look nasty. I'm under a decent cell right now, the thunder is pretty loud and it's pouring, but later on looks like the big stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 about to get clocked here with the first line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 these may form into a monster bow echo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Paterson NJ, Wayne NJ, Teaneck NJ until 4:15 PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 there's a boundary settling south through the metro. this should be a focus for storms this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Torrential downpours here. Incredible rainfall rates and it dropped to 70° just like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Hold on Rye Playland. Tie those rides down. Dragon Coaster, please hold up. Stay safe everybody. Looking more serious with upgrade to enhanced per SPC update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: there's a boundary settling south through the metro. this should be a focus for storms this evening What type of boundary is this? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: there's a boundary settling south through the metro. this should be a focus for storms this evening http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1395.html SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER TSTM CLUSTER EXTENDS FROM SERN NY WWD TO JUST S OF BFD -- NEAR THE WRN NY/PA BORDER. AS THE ONGOING LINE CONTINUES EWD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE INCREASED STORM STRENGTH WITH A RESULTING INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1395.html SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER TSTM CLUSTER EXTENDS FROM SERN NY WWD TO JUST S OF BFD -- NEAR THE WRN NY/PA BORDER. AS THE ONGOING LINE CONTINUES EWD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE INCREASED STORM STRENGTH WITH A RESULTING INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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