2010 Forecast Contest (Temperature)

[LakeEffectKing]

Standings for those who played all 10 months

1. DerekZ - 120.5

2. CT Blizz - 108.9

3. ksammut - 108.5

4. skierinvermont - 106.9

5. winterwarlock - 106.3

6. Inudaw - 92.1

7. WX4caster88 - 91.0

8. Lake Effect King - 87.1

9. Feb64 - 83.4

10. Roger Smith - 81.2

11. tplbge - 79.0

12. MN transplant - 78.8

13. Tom - 77.2

14. uncle w1 - 74.4

15. ARLMAWX - 72.8

15. Midlo, va home snow maker - 72.8

17. Birving - 66.2

18. hudsonvalley21 - 65.5

19. donsutherland1 - 63.4

20. MallowTheCloud - 62.9

21. SouthCoastMA - 61.2

22. Lvblizzard - 57.7

23. WintersGrasp - 53.3

24. Scotty Lightning - 45.8

25. WEATHER53 - 45.1

Standings for those who played at least 7 months, by average score

1. DerekZ - 12.050 (10)

2. hockeyinc - 11.025 (8)

3. blazess556 - 11.000 (8)

4. CT Blizz - 10.890 (10)

5. ksammut - 10.850 (10)

6. skierinvermont - 10.690 (10)

7. winterwarlock - 10.630 (10)

8. Nzucker - 9.429 (7)

9. Inudaw - 9.210 (10)

10. WX4caster88 - 9.100 (10)

11. StormchaserChuck - 8.867 (9)

12. Lake Effect King - 8.710 (10)

13. Southland Wx - 8.667 (9)

14. Feb64 - 8.340 (10)

15. eduggs - 8.313 (8)

16. Roger Smith - 8.120 (10)

17. tplbge - 7.900 (10)

18. MN transplant - 7.880 (10)

19. Tom - 7.720 (10)

20. uncle w1 - 7.440 (10)

21. ARLMAWX - 7.280 (10)

21. Midlo, va home snow maker - 7.280 (10)

23. SnowAlbedo - 7.200 (8)

24. weatherMA94 - 7.050 (8)

25. Ellinwood - 6.857 (7)

26. Birving - 6.620 (10)

27. hudsonvalley21 - 6.550 (10)

28. donsutherland1 - 6.340 (10)

29. MallowTheCloud - 6.290 (10)

30. SACRUS - 6.244 (9)

31. SouthCoastMA - 6.120 (10)

32. yhbrooklyn - 5.843 (7)

32. timp - 5.843 (7)

34. Lvblizzard - 5.770 (10)

35. Ytterbium - 5.588 (8)

36. Yoda - 5.511 (9)

37. Quakertown needs snow - 5.471 (7)

38. WintersGrasp - 5.330 (10)

39. PSUHazletonWx - 5.056 (9)

40. mattinpa - 5.033 (9)

41. Varicweather - 4.722 (9)

42. Scotty Lightning - 4.580 (10)

43. WEATHER53 - 4.510 (10)

44. Ginx snewx - 2.813 (8)

[Roger Smith]

By the way, there was an error in the above (just in the titles) because they were updated through ten months. The titles should be 10 months and 8 months.

[Roger Smith]

I have perhaps a bit more time than some -- if you want me to export the November forecasts to this thread, I could do it this week. Don't want to duplicate efforts though.

[LakeEffectKing]

I have perhaps a bit more time than some -- if you want me to export the November forecasts to this thread, I could do it this week. Don't want to duplicate efforts though.

Please do! Still no sign of MN or yh.....

[Roger Smith]

Okay, I rescued the November predictions. These are arranged in order from warmest to coldest totals

FORECASTER .............. DCA .... NYC .... BOS .... total

hockeyinc ................... +4.1 ... +2.9 ... +1.5 .... +8.5

Southland Wx ............ +3.0 ... +2.0 ... +1.0 .... +6.0

BlueSkiesFading ......... +2.2 ... +2.0 ... +1.6 .... +5.8

skierinvermont ............. +1.5 ... +1.9 ... +2.0 .... +5.4

Roger Smith ................ +1.5 ... +1.6 ... +2.2 .... +5.3

uncle w1 .................... +2.0 ... +1.5 ... +1.5 .... +5.0

PSUHazletonWx .......... +1.1 ... +1.4 ... +0.9 .... +3.4

Midlo,va.home snowmaker  +1.5 ... +1.1 ... +0.7 .... +3.3

MallowTheCloud ............ +1.6 ... +0.8 ... +0.7 .... +3.1

DerekZ .................... +1.2 ... +1.0 ... +0.8 .... +3.0

metfan4life ................ +1.3 ... +0.8 ... +0.2 .... +2.3

BIrving ...................... +1.0 ... +1.3 ... -0.5 .... +1.8

Quakertown needs snow . +1.1 ... +0.3 ... +0.1 .... +1.5

SJVWEATHER ............. +0.9 ... +0.5 ... +0.1 .... +1.5

hudsonvalley21 ............ +0.6 ... +0.6 ... +0.2 .... +1.4

WX4caster88DCA .......... +1.0 ... +0.5 ... -0.5 .... +1.0

CT Blizz ................ +1.0 ... +0.1 ... -0.3 .... +0.8

QVectorman .............. +0.5 ... +0.4 ... -0.4 .... +0.5

Scotty Lightning ........ +0.7 ... +0.2 ... -0.5 .... +0.4

goobagooba .............. +0.3 ... +0.1 ... -0.2 .... +0.2

tplbge .................. +0.6 ... +0.1 ... -0.5 .... +0.2

NVAWeather .............. +1.0 ... -0.1 ... -0.8 .... +0.1

Radders ................. +0.5 ... -0.1 ... -0.8 .... -0.4

CaseyWXwatcher .......... +0.2 ... -0.3 ... -0.6 .... -0.7

yhbrooklyn .............. +0.3 ... -0.3 ... -0.7 .... -0.7

Inudaw .................. +0.5 ... -0.4 ... -1.1 .... -1.0

ARLMAWX ................. -0.8 ... +0.2 ... -0.4 .... -1.0

Matt Crepon ............. -0.1 ... -0.5 ... -0.5 .... -1.1

Ellinwood ............... -0.5 ... -0.7 ... -0.4 .... -1.6

mysticct ................ +0.1 ... -0.8 ... -1.0 .... -1.7

MN transplant ........... -0.9 ... -0.8 ... -0.7 .... -2.4

Feb64 ................... -0.5 ... -0.5 ... -1.5 .... -2.5

NZucker ................. -0.6 ... -1.1 ... -1.7 .... -3.4

winterwxluvr ............ -1.1 ... -1.2 ... -1.3 .... -3.6

Lake Effect King ........ -1.0 ... -1.5 ... -1.1 .... -3.6

Tom ..................... -1.2 ... -1.4 ... -1.4 .... -4.0

winterwarlock ........... -1.9 ... -1.6 ... -1.2 .... -4.7

wxman1015 ............... -1.0 ... -1.5 ... -2.3 .... -4.8

mitchnick ............... -2.1 ... -1.9 ... -1.5 .... -5.5

Varicweather ............ -2.6 ... -1.7 ... -1.4 .... -5.7

SouthCoastMA ............ -1.8 ... -2.3 ... -1.9 .... -6.0

WintersGrasp ............ -2.0 ... -2.3 ... -3.2 .... -7.5

Snow Wizard ............. -2.0 ... -2.5 ... -3.0 .... -7.5

mattinpa ................ -2.6 ... -3.0 ... -3.8 .... -9.4

ksammut ................. -3.7 ... -3.8 ... -4.3 ... -11.8

WEATHER53 ............... -4.0 ... -4.0 ... -4.0 ... -12.0

-------------------------------------------------------

and after half the month, actuals are -0.5, -1.2, -1.2 for -2.9

With the turmoil, I didn't note many earlier values but I seem to recall seeing all three near -4 after about a week.

If you've established a new username, post that in the thread so we can change the scores from earlier in the year.

[Ellinwood]

If we need help keeping the contest going, I can step in.\

Hopefully this month doesn't end up being a torch Good start!

[Roger Smith]

I would say the month is about to go positive after such a negative start -- after yesterday most of the negative was used up and after today I would estimate the total will stand very close to zero, then it looks quite warm for about five days, so ... moving on up.

[Roger Smith]

The new total is 0.4 with DCA supplying all of that (the other two are listed as -0.0) ... today looks flat then a few warmer days coming along.

[Roger Smith]

After the 18th, up to +1.0 with DCA at 0.6 and the others at 0.2.

[Ellinwood]

I'm thinking (read: hoping) that the longer stretch of cold at the end of the month will be able to overcome this shorter period of warmth, which would eventually bring the totals to the neutral/slightly negative range by the end of the month.

[Roger Smith]

A slight reset down after the 19th came in with -3 type anomalies, the score is now 0.4 ... DCA at 0.4, the others cancelling out at 0.1 and -0.1.

Today looks slightly warmer again.

[hudsonvalley21]

Thanks to all that have saved the contest! :thumbsup:

[MN Transplant]

Thanks to Roger for bringing over the forecasts from Eastern. I sent the spreadsheet to yh so he'll have it for the tally at the end of the month.

[uncle W]

NYC is near average now so I'm hoping for a torch since I went mild... outside of model fantasy my chances for a good score is looking better...

[LakeEffectKing]

Thanks to Roger for bringing over the forecasts from Eastern. I sent the spreadsheet to yh so he'll have it for the tally at the end of the month.

Your're alive!!! What took you so long?? And you look naked without your "red" attire....

Edit: Nevermind....I saw your explaination in your 1st Americanwx post.....Welcome to the board!

[Roger Smith]

After a warmish day at DCA and a cold one for BOS, the overall value sits at 0.3 with DCA 0.8, NYC -0.1 and BOS -0.4 (est).

Looks like a spike is coming for 3-4 days, then a compensating drop.

[uncle W]

a plus ten today in NYC...That should make this month at least a +0.5 here after today...

[Roger Smith]

After the 22nd, +1.1 at DCA, +0.5 at NYC and -0.2 for BOS ... gives +1.4 as the current total.

Today and Thursday look warm, Wed closer to zero anomaly, probably going to see these at (2,2,1 = 5) at some point, then erosion sets in.

[Roger Smith]

Quite a jump after a warm day on Tuesday 23rd, DCA at +1.7 now, NYC at +1.1 and BOS 0.4 ... gives +3.2 as the new total.

[phil882]

Quite a jump after a warm day on Tuesday 23rd, DCA at +1.7 now, NYC at +1.1 and BOS 0.4 ... gives +3.2 as the new total.

ugh I was looking good, but we are gonna need quite a cold snap post t-giving to get those departures back down.

[Inudaw]

Hoping for a cool down as well.

[Roger Smith]

Now sitting at +2.8 (+1.8, +0.9, +0.1) with today looking a bit warmer but with midnight lows coming ... may not affect these values much then. Don't foresee much change in the last four days either, could drop slightly as warm advection is weak and may only affect DCA. Final values likely to total about +2.5 possibly.

[Roger Smith]

Update ... +3.0 (DCA +2.0, NYC +0.9, BOS +0.1)

[LakeEffectKing]

Is MN going to start a Dec. thread??? Haven't heard much from him.

[Inudaw]

Going to bust! Come on.

[Roger Smith]

After the 28th, +1.9 is the total from DCA +1.5, NYC +0.6, BOS -0.2

[Inudaw]

Not sure if its to date.. I believe it is..

DCA: +0.9

NYC: +0.8

BOS: -0.1

Total: +1.6

[Roger Smith]

The first of those was IAD, here's the actual values:

DCA +1.8

NYC +0.8

BOS -0.1

tot +2.5

[Inudaw]

The first of those was IAD, here's the actual values:

DCA +1.8

NYC +0.8

BOS -0.1

tot +2.5

Yea the first was iad. XD

[Damage In Tolland]

Results?